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Probabilistic Estimates of Variations in Applied Indicators of the Thermal Regime for the Adaptation to Climate Change in Russia

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Abstract

Possibilities of using the basic technology of probabilistic scenario forecasting of the regional climate to obtain detailed estimates of future changes in applied indicators of the thermal regime in the territory of federal districts and individual subjects of the Russian Federation are considered. Probabilistic ensemble estimates of future changes are presented for climatic indicators such as seasonal extremes of air temperature for a given averaging period, the sum of active temperatures, energy consumption indices for cold and warm seasons, and other characteristics of intra-annual periods with air temperatures above/below threshold values. The changes in the considered parameters of the thermal regime have been analyzed. It is shown that the main features of changes expected by the middle of the 21st century detected by the results of modeling over most of the territory of Russia are well manifested based on the observational data in the interval 1961–2020.

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Funding

This work was supported by the following programs and projects:

• Roshydromet topic 3.1 “Development of Methods and Technologies for Climate Services, Including Improvement of Climate Forecasting Models, Methods for Assessing the Consequences of Climate Change, Climate Substantiation of National Adaptation Plans, and Monitoring the Effectiveness of Adaptation” of the Scientific and Technical Research Plan for 2020–2024, approved by order no. 745 dated December 31, 2019);

• Union State “Development of the System of Hydrometeorological Safety of the Union State in 2017–2021” Activity 3 “Development of the System of Climate Services for the Population and Sectors of the Economy of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus.”

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  1. Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory, 194021, St. Petersburg, Russia

    E. I. Khlebnikova, I. M. Shkolnik & Yu. L. Rudakova

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  1. E. I. Khlebnikova
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  2. I. M. Shkolnik
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  3. Yu. L. Rudakova
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Correspondence to E. I. Khlebnikova.

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Translated by E. Morozov

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Khlebnikova, E.I., Shkolnik, I.M. & Rudakova, Y.L. Probabilistic Estimates of Variations in Applied Indicators of the Thermal Regime for the Adaptation to Climate Change in Russia. Izv. Atmos. Ocean. Phys. 59 (Suppl 2), S170–S180 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1134/S0001433823140086

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