Abstract
The statistics, structure, and variability of large-scale cold waves in various latitudinal zones of European Russia (ER) in the winter and summer seasons are considered. The largest number of waves is observed in winter in the south of ER and in summer in the north. The contribution to the total seasonal duration of the longest waves (more than 12 days) is observed in winter in the north (>40%); in summer, waves of such duration are not observed in the center and south of ER. Winter cold waves in all zones are characterized by areas of negative temperature anomaly, covering almost the entire territory of Russia, with centers in the corresponding zone of the ER and extending eastward up to 140° E. Summer waves have a three-field structure with centers of cold over ER and the west of Western Siberia and over Yakutia, and a positive anomaly in the eastern part of Western Siberia and western Central Siberia. Circulation structures in the troposphere accompanying the cold waves and their role in the formation of temperature anomalies are discussed. In winter, the H500 geopotential fields during waves in the center and south of ER are characterized by a powerful ridge over the north of ER and the Scandinavian Peninsula (which corresponds to the Scandinavian atmospheric circulation mode) and a trough in the south of ER and Western Siberia. Cold waves in the northern zone occur with a crest in the Atlantic north and a trough in the south (the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) negative phase) and a trough in the north of ER. Summer cold waves in all zones are accompanied by a cutoff cyclone centered in the corresponding zone (slightly to the north for waves in ER south); a negative geopotential anomaly over ER corresponds to the negative phase of East Atlantic–West Russia (EAWR) mode. The seasonal wave duration series during the 20th to the first two decades of the 21st centuries exhibits pronounced long-term variability with time scales of about a decade and several decades. In summer, there has been a downward trend in the seasonal duration of cold waves in all ER zones since the mid-1970s, especially significant (in terms of contribution to overall variability) in the south. In winter, a downward (insignificant) trend is observed only for waves in the north. In the south and especially in the center, the total duration of cold waves increases from the 1990s to the end of 2000s. The connection between this behavior of the total duration of winter waves and changes in the Atlantic–European sector leading circulation modes is discussed.
REFERENCES
Bardin, M.Yu., Anticyclonic quasi-stationary circulation and its effect on air temperature anomalies and extremes over western Russia, Russ. Meteorol. Hydrol., 2007, vol. 32, no. 2, pp. 75–84.
Bardin, M.Yu., Scenary forecasts of air temperature variations for the regions of the Russian Federation up to 2030 using the empirical stochastic climate models, Russ. Meteorol. Hydrol., 2011, vol. 36, no. 4, pp. 217–228.
Bardin, M.Yu. and Platova, T.V., Long-term variations in the indicators of extremeness of the temperature regime in Russia and their relationship with changes in large-scale atmospheric circulation and global warming, Russ. Meteorol. Hydrol., 2019, vol. 44, no. 12, pp. 791–801.
Bardin, M.Yu., Platova, T.V., and Samokhina, O.F., Features of the variability of cyclonic activity in midlatitudes of the Northern Hemisphere associated with leading modes of atmospheric circulation in the Atlantic–European sector, Fundam. Prikl. Klimatol., 2015, no. 2, pp. 14–40.
Bardin, M.Yu., Platova, T.V., and Samokhina, O.F., Variability of anticyclonic activity in mid-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, Fundam. Prikl. Klimatol., 2019, no. 3, pp. 32–58.
Bardin, M.Yu., Ran’kova, E.Ya., Platova, T.V., Samokhina, O.F., and Korneva, I.A., Modern surface climate change as inferred from routine climate monitoring data, Russ. Meteorol. Hydrol., 2020, vol. 45, no. 5, pp. 317–329.
Barnston, A.G. and Livezey, R.E., Classification, seasonality and persistence of low - frequency atmospheric circulation patterns, Mon. Weather Rev., 1987, vol. 115, pp. 1083–1126.
Bokuchava, D.D. and Semenov, V.A., Analysis of surface air temperature anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere during the 20th century from observational and reanalysis data, Fundam. Prikl. Klimatol., 2018, no. 1, pp. 28–51.
Bulygina, O.N., Razuvaev, V.N., and Aleksandrova, T.M., Certificate of State Registration of Database no. 2014620942, 2014. http://meteo.ru/data/162-temperature-precipitation#%D0%BE%D0%BF%D0%B8%D1%81%D0%B0%D0%BD%D0%B8%D0%B5-%D0%BC%D0%B0% D1%81%D1%81%D0%B8%D0%B2%D0%B0-%D0% B4%D0%B0%D0%BD%D0%BD%D1%8B%D1%85.
Cherenkova, E.A., Bardin, M.Yu., Platova, T.V., and Semenov, V.A., Influence of North Atlantic SST variability and changes in atmospheric circulation on the frequency of summer droughts in the East European Plain, Russ. Meteorol. Hydrol., 2020, vol. 45, no. 12, pp. 819–829.
Doklad ob osobennostyakh klimata na territorii Rossiiskoi Federatsii za 2021 god (Report on Climate Features in the Territory of the Russian Federation for 2021), Moscow: Rosgidromet, 2022.
Efimova, Yu.V., Babich, Ya.B., Neelova, L.O., Eremina, N.S., Mkhanna, A.I.N., and Lavrova, I.V., Features of changes in synoptic processes generating cold waves in St. Petersburg in winter, Navig. Gidrogr., 2020, no. 60, pp. 80–88.
Gorbatenko, V.P., Tunaev, E.L., Pustovalov, K.N., Volkova, M.A., and Nechepurenko, O.E., Change of cyclogenesis over West Siberia in 1976–2017, Fundam. Prikl. Klimatol., 2020, no. 2, pp. 35–57.
Grigor’eva, E.A., Cold waves: Approaches to definition and examples for Khabarovsk, Reg. Probl., 2019, vol. 22, no. 3, pp. 24–37.
Gruza, G.V. and Ran’kova, E.Ya., Nablyudaemye i ozhidaemye izmeneniya klimata Rossii (Observed and Expected Climate Changes in Russia), VNIIGMI-MTsD, 2012.
IPCC. The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pirani, A., et al., Eds., Cambridge: Cambridge Univ. Press, 2021. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896.
Kalnay, E., Kanamitsu, M., Kistler, R., Collins, W., Deaven, D., Gandin, L., Iredell, M., Saha, S., White, G., Woollen, J., Zhu, Y., Leetmaa, A., Reynolds, R., Chelliah, M., Ebisuzaki, et al., The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 1996, vol. 77, pp. 437–470.
Khlebnikova, E.I. and Sal’, I.A., Cold temperature extremes in Russia and risks of critical temperature impacts on infrastructure facilities, Russ. Meteorol. Hydrol., 2018, no. 6, pp. 372–378.
Khromov, S.P. and Mamontova, L.I., Meteorologicheskii slovar' (Meteorological Dictionary), Leningrad: Gidrometeoizdat, 1974.
Kozlova, D.S. and Kharlamova, N.F., Dynamics of cold and heat for 1959–2005 in Barnaul, Geogr. Prirodopol’z. Sib., 2012, no. 14, pp. 65–70.
Mirvis, V.M., Meleshko, V.P., Govorkova, V.A., and Baidin, A.V., Anomalous winter and summer weather patterns over Russia in the 21st century as simulated by CMIP6 models, Russ. Meteorol. Hydrol., 2022, vol. 47, no. 5, pp. 334–342.
OD: Vtoroi otsenochnyi doklad Rosgidrometa ob izmeneniyakh klimata i ikh posledstviyakh na territorii Rossiiskoi Federatsii (The Second Assessment Report of Roshydromet on Climate Change and Its Consequences on the Territory of the Russian Federation), Kattsov, V.M. and Semenov, S.M., Eds., Moscow: Rosgidromet, 2014.
Popova, V.V., Modern climate changes in northern Eurasia as a manifestation of variations in the large-scale atmospheric circulation), Fundam. Prikl. Klimatol., 2018, no. 1, pp. 84–111.
Ran’kova, E.Ya., Alekseeva, G.V., Aleshina, M.A., et al., Statistical Climatology: Advances and New Ideas (Scientific Readings in Memory of Georgii Vadimovich Gruza), Fundam. Prikl. Klimatol., 2022, vol. 8, no. 1, pp. 5–50.
Razuvaev, V.N., Apasova, E.G. and Martuganov, R.A., Daily Temperature and Precipitation Data for 223 USSR Stations, Oak Ridge, Tenn.: Carbon Dioxide Information Data Center, Oak Ridge National Lab., 1993, ORN-L/CDIAC-56, NDP-040, ESD Publ. No. 4194.
Funding
This work was supported by Roshydromet, topic 3.2 “Monitoring the Global Climate and the Climate of the Russian Federation and Its Regions, Including the Arctic. Development and Modernization of Monitoring Technologies.”
This work was supported by the Russian Science Foundation, project no. 19-17-00242-P “Dangerous Weather and Climate Phenomena in Russia in the Context of Global Climate Change.”
This work was supported by the State Task of the Institute of Geography of the Russian Academy of Sciences “Climate Changes and Their Consequences for the Environment and the Life of the Population in Russia,” AAAA-A19-119022190173-2 (FMGE-2019-0009).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
CONFLICT OF INTEREST
The authors of this work declare that they have no conflicts of interest.
CONSENT TO PARTICIPATE
Informed consent was obtained from all individual participants included in the study.
Additional information
Translated by V. Selikhanovich
Publisher’s Note.
Pleiades Publishing remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Bardin, M.Y., Platova, T.V. Cold Waves in European Russia: Structure, Circulation Conditions, and Changes in Seasonal Statistics. Izv. Atmos. Ocean. Phys. 59 (Suppl 2), S128–S140 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1134/S0001433823140050
Received:
Revised:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1134/S0001433823140050