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Modified Medium-Term Earthquake Forecast Method: Map of Expected Earthquakes. Processing and Analyzing the Initial Data

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Abstract

This article is the second in a series devoted to the modification of the Map of Expected Earthquakes (MEE) method of medium-term earthquake forecasting. The description of algorithms for preparing and analyzing initial data and the results of their application are presented. In particular, the following additional functional capabilities have been achieved: (1) the creation of various computational grids for further spatial and temporal scanning of the earthquake catalog within the analyzed seismic active region, (2) the declustering of earthquake catalogs and evaluation of representative values of energy classes (magnitudes) in space and time, and (3) the evaluation of time interval length for calculating the background parameters of prognostic features. The overall result of successful scientific and technical work will be the creation of an upgraded method for medium-term earthquake prediction taking into account the spatial distribution of earthquake sources, the integrated use of physically based earthquake precursors, the results of seismic zoning in the form of a lineament–domain–focal (LDF) model, and other related areas of research.

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Funding

This study was supported by the Russian Science Foundation, grant no. 22-27-00158 (https://rscf.ru/project/22-27-00158/).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Schmidt Institute of Physics of the Earth, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia

    A. D. Zavyalov, A. N. Morozov, I. M. Aleshin, S. D. Ivanov, K. I. Kholodkov & V. A. Pavlenko

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  1. A. D. Zavyalov
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  2. A. N. Morozov
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  3. I. M. Aleshin
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  4. S. D. Ivanov
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  5. K. I. Kholodkov
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  6. V. A. Pavlenko
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Correspondence to A. D. Zavyalov, A. N. Morozov, I. M. Aleshin, S. D. Ivanov, K. I. Kholodkov or V. A. Pavlenko.

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Zavyalov, A.D., Morozov, A.N., Aleshin, I.M. et al. Modified Medium-Term Earthquake Forecast Method: Map of Expected Earthquakes. Processing and Analyzing the Initial Data. Izv. Atmos. Ocean. Phys. 59, 761–771 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1134/S0001433823070058

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1134/S0001433823070058

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