Using machine learning and partial dependence to evaluate robustness of best linear unbiased prediction (BLUP) for phenotypic values

Abstract

Best linear unbiased prediction (BLUP) is widely used in plant research to address experimental variation. For phenotypic values, BLUP accuracy is largely dependent on properly controlled experimental repetition and how variable components are outlined in the model. Thus, determining BLUP robustness implies the need to evaluate contributions from each repetition. Here, we assessed the robustness of BLUP values for simulated or empirical phenotypic datasets, where the BLUP value and each experimental repetition served as dependent and independent (feature) variables, respectively. Our technique incorporated machine learning and partial dependence. First, we compared the feature importance estimated with the neural networks. Second, we compared estimated average marginal effects of individual repetitions, calculated with a partial dependence analysis. We showed that contributions of experimental repetitions are unequal in a phenotypic dataset, suggesting that the calculated BLUP value is likely to be influenced by some repetitions more than others (such as failing to detect simulated true positive associations). To resolve disproportionate sources, variable components in the BLUP model must be further outlined.