Abstract
We provide new evidence on the effects of social media in the context of a financial scandal using a sample of banks that were accused of manipulating the London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR). We find that increased bank Twitter activity when the scandal surfaced has a positive moderating effect on equity returns. However, the dissemination of content operated by social media users has a negative counterbalancing effect, thus amplifying the impact of the scandal. In particular, tweets that are unrelated to the scandal and characterized by positive sentiment contribute to exacerbating the reputational damage suffered by banks. We contribute to the emerging literature on the role of social media in capital markets.
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Notes
We are not arguing that an abnormal increase in banks’ tweets during the event window would necessarily translate into a positive market reaction. Rather, we observe that, on average, banks that exhibit abnormally higher Twitter activity experience less negative market reaction to the scandal.
Although we do not frame this as a repeated game (our main objective is, in fact, examining the short-term implications of social media disclosure), the very nature of the scandal event involves stalled news and the potential for reputational spillovers.
EURIBOR is a reference rate overseen by the European Banking Federation. The EUROBOR contributor panel consisted of approximately 42 to 48 banks. Thomson Reuters also acts as an agent for the calculation and publishing of this rate. The administration process of this rate is highly similar to the one of LIBOR. However, only the highest and lowest 15% of all quotes are trimmed in EURIBOR calculation.
See Monticini and Thornton (2013) for the effect of misrepresenting LIBOR rates.
“In the matter of: The Royal Bank of Scotland PLC and RBS Securities Japan Limited”. US Commodity Futures Trading Commission. February 6, 2013.
“Study casts doubt on key rate”. The Wall Street Journal, May 29, 2008.
We restricted our sample to banks that are regular Twitter users by removing banks with less than 100 tweets per year during the sample period to rule out the possibility of capturing the effect of inactive Twitter users.
We employ a propensity-score-matched sample rather than using all banks outside the LIBOR panel as a baseline group because different bank characteristics such as bank size (and associated information environment) and stock beta may yield different market reactions.
We include the day before the event to account for the time difference between Europe and North America, and information leakage before the event date.
Once a bank is categorized as an event bank, it cannot be classified as a nonevent bank any longer.
We searched the following string using the Factiva free text form: Bank name and (“LIBOR” or “scandal” or “LIBOR scandal” or “manipulat*”). For publication sources, we selected “All Sources” to maximize our search results. To reduce potential measurement bias, we excluded article duplicates from our count.
Within the LIBOR-related category we found different types of statements which can be linked to four types of events: settlement with authorities, management changes, board changes, and responsibility statement.
There are two possible reasons for this: First, some banks have no Twitter activity in the event date interval; Second, some banks have no Twitter activity during the control window.
To demonstrate that the market reaction to the LIBOR manipulation is negative, we also estimate a baseline model that ignores the effect of social media and document a negative and significant coefficient on the variable \(event\).
In terms of the economic significance of our results, we base on the result in column 5 of Table 4 and interpret the finding as one standard deviation increase in the abnormal tweet volume being associated with a reduction in the negative returns due to the event, from –15% to –6%.
To check the robustness of our results to the choice of the sentiment dictionary, we re-estimated the baseline model using Linguistic Inquiry and Word Count (LIWC) as an alternative dictionary for sentiment measurement, and the results remain qualitatively similar.
We also develop a more stringent measure for \(sentiment\_res\) by regressing daily average sentiment on a set of common risk factors (i.e., \(ltb\), \(corp\), \(hy\), \(sov\), \(reit\), \(forex\), \(com\), and \(plt\)) that are additional to market risk. Results, unreported for brevity, remain qualitatively the same.
To enhance the validity of the tweet sentiment test, we conducted an additional analysis. We parsed all the scandal-related tweets and identified a set of the most frequently occurring scandal-related keywords (e.g., “LIBOR”, “scandal”, “manipulation”, “settlement”, “investigation”, “sanction”). Subsequently, we performed textual analysis on the entire subsample of tweets characterized by positive sentiment, searching for these keywords. Any tweets containing at least one of these identified keywords was flagged as scandal related. Out of the 105,352 tweets characterized as having a positive sentiment, only 19 tweets were identified as containing misconduct-related content. This results in a ratio of 0.018%, providing reassurance regarding the nature of the majority of positive tweets as being unrelated to the scandal.
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Acknowledgements
We thank the editor, Cheng-Few Lee, two anonymous reviewers, Manuel Adelino, Amir Amel-Zadeh, Niamh Brennan, Michele Fabrizi, Frank Fagan, Miguel Ferreira, Sok-Hyon Kang, April Klein, Aziza Laguecir, Francesco Mazzi, Facundo Mercado, Siva Nathan, Reining Petacchi, Amedeo Pugliese, Margarida Soares, Marco Trombetta, and Zhifang Zhang for helpful comments and suggestions. This paper also benefited from participant comments at the Accounting Summer Camp 2019 (Bolzano), the 2019 American Accounting Association Annual Meeting, the 2019 European Accounting Association Annual Congress, the 2019-2020 ESADE Alumni Events (Milan, Shanghai), and seminars at EDHEC Business School, ESADE Business School, IE Business School, NHH Norwegian School of Economics, Nova Business School, and the University of Padova. We thank Giovanni Berton for the excellent research assistance. Giulia Redigolo acknowledges the financial support received from ESADE Business School.
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Xing Huan, Antonio Parbonetti, Giulia Redigolo, Zhewei Zhang declare that they have no conflict of interest.
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Huan, X., Parbonetti, A., Redigolo, G. et al. Social media disclosure and reputational damage. Rev Quant Finan Acc 62, 1355–1396 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11156-023-01239-z
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11156-023-01239-z