Abstract
A new model of world population growth, including discrete equations for the dynamics of percentage increases in integral inflows and outflows and a balance equation for the population size, is proposed. The principle of dynamic balance of a demographic process and the condition of interval dynamic consistency based on this principle are formulated. A sample example of forecasting world population growth in the period from 2011 to 2021 is given, which demonstrates the possibility of building linear dynamic trends in the percentage growth of the integral number of dead people dynamically consistent with corresponding intervals of statistics on the integral numbers of children born in earlier periods. Based on the proposed model, world population growth after 2021 is predicted assuming that the population size will reach 9.466 billion in 2050 and will attain the maximum level of 9.651 billion in 2062, after which the world population will decline to amount to 8.670 billion in 2100.
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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
I am sincerely grateful to Academician of the RAS N.F. Morozov for his interest in this study, valuable comments, encouragement, and readiness to submit the article for publication in the Doklady Mathematics journal. I also thank S.M. Ndiaye, graduate student of St. Petersburg State University for his assistance in preparing the manuscript for publication.
Funding
This work was supported by the Russian Science Foundation, grant no. 23-21-10049 (https://rscf.ru/en/project/23-21-10049/) and by St. Petersburg Science Foundation.
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Translated by I. Ruzanova
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Zakharov, V.V. Principle of Dynamic Balance of Demographic Process and the Limits of World Population Growth. Dokl. Math. 108, 419–424 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1134/S1064562423701302
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1134/S1064562423701302