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Climate change effect on optimal N recommendation and yield of rice and wheat crops

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Abstract  

Climate change affects the established crop production practices by altering rainfall, temperature, and solar radiation—leading to reduced resource use and economic efficiencies. Pertaining to this, we analysed the optimum fertiliser-Nitrogen (N) recommendation of rice and wheat crops for Kharagpur station, West Bengal, India under projected climate change conditions by using six mathematical models, namely, quadratic, square root, linear plateau, quadratic plateau, square root plateau, and the Mitscherlich model. Models were parameterised using field experiment observations at Kharagpur and tested for historical crop yield. The historical (1976–2005) and future (2006–2100) yield responses of rice and wheat to the different N doses are simulated by using a calibrated and validated process-based crop simulation model—Crop Environment and Resource Synthesis (CERES). Eight bias-corrected Global Climate Model (GCM) outputs for the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5) were used to simulate the yield of both crops for the period of 1976 to 2100. Results revealed that the quadratic plateau model represents crop yield response to fertiliser-N application better than other mathematical models. The estimated optimum N dose (OND) increased from an average historical 121 kg N/ha to 138, 143, and 146 kg N/ha for rice, and from an average historical 98 kg N/ha to 119, 124, and 127 kg N/ha for wheat in three future times, respectively, 2006–2035, 2036–2065, and 2066–2095 under all RCPs scenarios. On the other hand, the yield of both crops is expected to decrease in the future due to an increase in N losses, leading to reduced N use efficiency.

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Data availability

The field experiment datasets collected and/or analysed during the current study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.

Code availability

Crop simulation model DSSAT is available to download from dssat.net; and fertiliser optimization programs, written in MATLAB, are available on reasonable request.

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Funding

This work is partially supported by the project—Centre of Excellence (CoE) in Climate Change Studies established at IIT Kharagpur and funded by the Department of Science and Technology (DST), Government of India under Climate Change Programme (SPLICE).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Agricultural and Food Engineering Department, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur, Kharagpur, West Bengal, 721302, India

    Madhuri Dubey, Ashok Mishra & Rajendra Singh

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  1. Madhuri Dubey
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  2. Ashok Mishra
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  3. Rajendra Singh
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Contributions

Ashok Mishra conceptualized and supervised this study. Field experiments and data collection and analysis were performed by Madhuri Dubey. The first draft of the manuscript was written by Madhuri Dubey which was rigorously corrected by Ashok Mishra and Rajendra Singh. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.

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Correspondence to Ashok Mishra.

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Dubey, M., Mishra, A. & Singh, R. Climate change effect on optimal N recommendation and yield of rice and wheat crops. Theor Appl Climatol 155, 4049–4064 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-024-04866-1

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