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Investigation of thermodynamics and dynamic factors affecting the development, strength, and longevity of mesoscale convective systems

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Abstract

The aim of this study is to elucidate the primary factors influencing the development, strength, and longevity of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) in southwest Iran. Focusing on dynamic and thermodynamic factors, this research investigates their impact on MCSs’ maximum area, longevity, and precipitation characteristics. The study reveals that MCS characteristics are intricately linked to environmental factors such as humidity, convective available potential energy (CAPE), and low-level wind shear, predominantly within the Red Sea convergence zone. These factors are, in turn, influenced by larger atmospheric phenomena like Sudan’s low, Saudi Arabia’s high, and the Azores high. Multiple linear regression analysis identifies low-level wind shear along the Red Sea convergence zone and the 300 hPa wind speed along the subtropical jet stream as significant predictors for both the maximum and mean precipitation of MCSs. Notably, CAPE over the west of the Red Sea emerges as crucial for maximum precipitation, while sensible heat flux over Eastern Europe is key for mean precipitation estimation. The findings also underscore that humidity variables and 850 hPa wind speed are vital in determining the longevity and area of MCSs. This study contributes to a better understanding of the environmental conditions influencing MCS occurrence, aiding in the prediction of heavy precipitation events in subtropical regions like southwest Iran.

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Data availability

IRW brightness temperature of Meteosat imagery are available from the European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites at https://www.eumetsat.int/ and Reanalysis datasets (ERA5) are available from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) at https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Geography, Sayyed Jamaleddin Asadabadi University, Asadabad, Iran

    Somayeh Rafati

  2. Faculty of Geography, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran

    Zahra Khazaei & Shima Bahramnejad

Authors
  1. Somayeh Rafati
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  2. Zahra Khazaei
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  3. Shima Bahramnejad
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The research design, analysis, and writing were done by SR. Data collection, material preparation, and some analysis were performed by ZK and SB.

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Correspondence to Somayeh Rafati.

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Rafati, S., Khazaei, Z. & Bahramnejad, S. Investigation of thermodynamics and dynamic factors affecting the development, strength, and longevity of mesoscale convective systems. Theor Appl Climatol 155, 3719–3737 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-024-04844-7

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