Abstract
Extreme cold events can have several consequences in different sectors, including human health, infrastructure, agriculture, and the economy. The frost events that affect central and northeastern Argentina are associated with stationary Rossby waves triggered by tropical heat sources and convection, which result in intense polar air advection. However, the processes responsible for these cold events include complex interactions between these wave trains and mechanisms at different atmospheric scales, such as the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO), which can alter the temperature patterns. This study investigates the impacts of the MJO on air temperature and associated circulation in years with extreme occurrence frequency of cold events in central southern South America during the winter. The results showed that the MJO convection can enhance or weaken the temperature anomalies during winters with a maximum and minimum frequency of generalized frosts (GF) occurrence due to Rossby wave train propagation triggered in the tropical region. Moreover, the effect on the anomaly patterns in these events depends on the MJO phase. Our analysis shows that individual MJO phases can modulate the temperature anomalies even in an unfavorable basic state (as in winters with an extreme frequency of GF and emphasizes the importance of considering the MJO in the predictions of the temperature anomalies associated with GF over southeastern South America.
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Data Availability
OLR dataset can be obtained in the NOAA repository at https://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/data.olrcdr.interp.html. ERA5 datasets are available in the ECMWF repository at https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/cdsapp#!/home. MJO index is available in the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) repository at https://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/SOURCES/.BoM/.MJO/.RMM/.
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Acknowledgements
To Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) and Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA) of Argentina for providing the meteorological data. The authors thank the anonymous reviewers for their comments and recommendations that enhanced the quality of the article.
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All authors contributed to the study conception and design. Data analysis were performed by all authors. The first draft of the manuscript was written by M. H. Shimizu and M. Gregorio, and all authors commented on previous versions of the manuscript. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.
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Shimizu, M.H., Gregorio, M. & Müller, G.V. MJO modulation of air temperature and associated circulation in years with extreme frequency of generalized frosts over southeastern South America. Theor Appl Climatol (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-024-04887-w
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-024-04887-w