Abstract
This paper attempts to analyze decoupling between CO2 emissions and income growth in the U.S. through the lens of Environmental Kuznets curve (EKC). Many states in the U.S. have achieved absolute decoupling in recent years, which means that CO2 emissions have decreased while the economy grows. This is partly due to the adoption of low-emission technologies, such as coal to gas switching, nuclear power, and economic restructuring towards a more sustainable economy. We argue that understanding decoupling is crucial to implement effective climate change policies. This study suggests that, after 2015, EKC has taken on the U-shaped form with many states currently located on the negatively sloped portion of the curve. It is not desirable as emissions may eventually begin to increase as the economy grows. To support this claim, we estimate panel fixed effects rolling-window EKCs using two-stage least square with two instrumental variables, unemployment rate and the trend variable. Empirical results show how the inverted U-shaped EKC has transformed into the U-shaped EKC in the U.S. This transformation is probably caused by the recent increases in emissions in transportation sector, strong electricity demand in recent years with cold winter seasons, reversals of eco-friendly energy policies, and manufacturers’ onshoring. Stakeholders should make efforts to transform the U-shaped EKC back to an inverted U-shaped EKC even in cases where absolute decoupling is observed.
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The data used in this study are available from the public domains, for example, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Energy Information Administration, and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Notes
The concept of decoupling emissions from income growth involves measuring the ratio of changes in emissions to changes in income, which is referred to as decoupling elasticity. Coupling is defined when 0.8 < ϵ < 1.2, decoupling when 0 < ϵ < 0.8, and strong decoupling when ϵ < 0, where ϵ is decoupling elasticity (Tapio 2005).
CO2 emissions are a major contributor to climate change, leading to rising global temperatures and a range of environmental and societal impacts. To address this issue, the Paris Agreement was established, aiming to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius (UNFCCC, 2015). Net zero emissions are critical to achieving these goals, meaning that any remaining emissions are offset by removing an equivalent amount of CO2 from the atmosphere. Mitigating climate change is essential to safeguarding our planet and future generations, and requires immediate action and commitment from individuals, governments, and businesses worldwide (IEA, 2021).
A process is called absolute decoupling when emissions decrease steadily with economic growth (Heger and Vashold 2021). A process is called relative decoupling when the economy grows faster than the growth rate of emissions (Heger and Vashold 2021). The U.S. has shown absolute decoupling. Note that the actual emissions from the U.S. are still relatively larger than other countries even if the U.S. has achieved absolute decoupling. The U.S. emitted 15.2 (metric tons/person) in 2018. In the same year, Qatar emitted 32.4, Australia 15.5, Korea, 12.2, Russia 11.1, Japan 8.7, Germany 8.6, China 7.4, United Kingdom 5.4, and India 1.8. Top five countries in terms of total emissions are China, U.S., India, Russia, and Japan (Word Bank CO2 emissions database).
To ensure that we do not have a spurious relationship between CO2 emissions and personal income, we conducted a panel unit root test, Im–Pesaran–Shin (IPS) (Im et al. 2003) with demean for the entire sample. IPS test allow for a heterogeneous coefficient of lagged CO2 emissions Baltagi (2005). We rejected the null hypothesis, all panels contain unit roots, indicating that some panels are stationary. The test statistics are not reported here but available upon request.
The Bai-Perron test (Bai and Perron 1998, 2003) detects unknown structural break points in a time series data. The unit root test proposed in Carrion-i-Silvestre et al. (2009), the GLS-based test, may identify multiple structural breaks using the method similar to the Bai-Perron test for a non-stationary time series data. The GLS-based test reveals that there were structural breaks in 1993 & 2001 assuming two breaks, or 1993, 2001 and 2015 with three breaks. Results of the GLS-based test are not reported here and available upon request.
Studentized residuals for these states are larger than + 2.5 (Alaska and Wyoming) or smaller than − 2.5, which may be considered as the outliers.
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Wang, Z., Kim, MK. Decoupling of CO2 emissions and income in the U.S.: A new look from EKC. Climatic Change 177, 52 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-024-03706-5
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-024-03706-5
Keywords
- CO2 emissions
- Environmental Kuznets curve (EKC)
- Decoupling
- Income growth
- Panel model
- Rolling-window analysis