Abstract
Now a days, assessment of flood risk is a significant concern worldwide, particularly in regions experiencing rapid urbanization and climate change. This study utilizes the analytic hierarchy process and Geographic Information Systems to assess flood risk under changing climate in the Lower Tapi river basin (LTRB) in India. The objective is to develop flood hazard and flood vulnerability maps and subsequently to create a flood risk map by integrating them in LTRB in a Base and Advance scenario, i.e., under changing climate. The change point study to identify Advance scenario has been employed to distinguish the year from which sudden change in the data emerge out. The flood risk contributing factors are included in this study are Elevation, Distance from river, Average annual rainfall, Drainage density, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, Slope, Clay percentage, Topographic Wetness Index, Population density, Average Crop production, Land use Land cover, and Road River intersection. The developed flood risk map has been separated into five zones of the level of risk, namely very high, high, moderate, low, and very low-risk zones. The flood risk maps developed in Base scenario and in Advance scenario are compared to investigate the impact of changing climate in Lower Tapi river basin. It is revealed that the high and very high-risk zone area proliferated, and very low and moderate risk area condensed in the Advance scenario. The developed flood risk maps in Base and Advance scenario can aid in effective disaster management and planning for the region under changing climate.
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Funding
Authors are thankful to the Department of Climate change and Department of Higher education of the state Government of Gujarat of India for providing the funds for the climate change research project CCSGS under the principal investigatorship of Dr. Geeta S. Joshi (Grant No. PRJ 10-2017/68640/18).
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Chandole, V., Joshi, G.S. & Srivastava, V.K. Flood risk mapping under changing climate in Lower Tapi river basin, India. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-024-02677-4
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-024-02677-4