Abstract
The climate change assessment in the context of urban areas is very crucial for policy making regarding hazard mitigation and citizen’s health, especially for the smart cities. The past climate assessment and present climate monitoring is somewhere easy, but the projection of future climate at city level is very difficult as most climate models fail to resolve the cities spatially. Over the highly populated areas like the region of Gangetic Plains the precise city specific climate projection becomes more important. The present study aims to project the future temperature, covering both minimum temperature (Tmin) and maximum temperature (Tmax) and analyse the extreme indices over smart cities in the Gangetic Plains, as one of the pioneer works using CMIP6 model’s downscaled outputs using SDSM model. The study reveals that these smart cities are likely to experience warmer and more extreme temperatures in the upcoming decades. The future temperature projections were generated under two emission scenarios (SSP245 and SSP585), and for near future (2030–2065) and far future (2066–2100) periods. The drastic change in minimum temperature (Tmin) was observed over New Delhi, Prayagraj, Kolkata, and Lucknow by the end of the century under SSP585. Four extreme temperature indices were also analyzed for future time series: (1) TXgt40(No. of days Tmax > 40ºC); (2) TNlt10(No. of days when Tmin < 10ºC); (3) TX90p (Percentage of days when Tmax > 90th percentile); and (4) TN10P (Percentage of days when Tmin < 10th percentile). The increasing trend of warm temperature Indices and decreasing trend of cool temperature indices were observed over all the stations. The drastic change in extreme temperature indices may have a significant effect on urban climate, it could impact public health by increasing the incidence of heat-related illnesses such as heat stress or heat exhaustion. The present study can be also utilized as a probable baseline for assessing the extreme climate conditions in the future. As this study is one of the very first attempts under the aspect of smart cities and thus it may help in developing early warning systems for smart cities in the Gangetic Plain.
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Acknowledgements
We are thankful to Met Centre Patna, India Meteorological Department (IMD), for providing necessary meteorological data. We would like to express our gratitude to the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCMA) for making NCEP and GCM data available in the public domain. The authors are also grateful to the developers of SDSM and Climpact2. We are very much grateful to the Anonymous reviewers for their valuable inputs, which significantly improved the quality of manuscript by adding many updates including fine and subtle details.
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PK downloaded gridded and GCM data, formulated the research protocol and codes as per research problem, ran the model and all the experiments, plotted the graphics and lead authored the manuscript as part of his doctoral research. AB co-developed research protocol, refined and co-authored the manuscript and its revised forms, and contributed in code development for graphics only. PPS co-authored the manuscript and supervised the entire research. AS has contributed in providing the raw IMD station data.
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Kumar, P., Barat, A., Sarthi, P.P. et al. Evaluating future urban temperature over smart cities of the Gangetic plains using statistically downscaled CMIP6 projections. Theor Appl Climatol (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-024-04896-9
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-024-04896-9