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Exploring Patterns of Human Mortality and Aging: A Reliability Theory Viewpoint

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Abstract

The most important manifestation of aging is an increased risk of death with advancing age, a mortality pattern characterized by empirical regularities known as mortality laws. We highlight three significant ones: the Gompertz law, compensation effect of mortality (CEM), and late-life mortality deceleration and describe new developments in this area. It is predicted that CEM should result in declining relative variability of mortality at older ages. The quiescent phase hypothesis of negligible actuarial aging at younger adult ages is tested and refuted by analyzing mortality of the most recent birth cohorts. To comprehend the aging mechanisms, it is crucial to explain the observed empirical mortality patterns. As an illustrative example of data-directed modeling and the insights it provides, we briefly describe two different reliability models applied to human mortality patterns. The explanation of aging using a reliability theory approach aligns with evolutionary theories of aging, including idea of chronic phenoptosis. This alignment stems from their focus on elucidating the process of organismal deterioration itself, rather than addressing the reasons why organisms are not designed for perpetual existence. This article is a part of a special issue of the journal that commemorates the legacy of the eminent Russian scientist Vladimir Petrovich Skulachev (1935-2023) and his bold ideas about evolution of biological aging and phenoptosis.

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Acknowledgments

We express our deepest gratitude to the late Professor Vladimir Petrovich Skulachev (1935-2023), a distinguished Russian scientist who served as our invaluable scientific mentor and advisor from the 1970s onward. This article is part of a special journal Issue dedicated to honoring his memory. Professor Skulachev played a pivotal role in inspiring the creation of our book, “The Biology of Life Span,” referenced in this article, for which he served as the scientific editor [2]. Furthermore, his encouragement led to a significant collaborative study with him on the variability of human life history traits [101].

Funding

This work was partially supported by the National Institutes of Health (project no. NIH R21AG054849).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. NORC at the University of Chicago, 60637, Chicago, IL, USA

    Leonid A. Gavrilov & Natalia S. Gavrilova

  2. Institute for Demographic Research, Federal Center of Theoretical and Applied Sociology, Russian Academy of Sciences, 109028, Moscow, Russia

    Leonid A. Gavrilov & Natalia S. Gavrilova

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  1. Leonid A. Gavrilov
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  2. Natalia S. Gavrilova
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Leonid A. Gavrilov designed the study, analyzed and interpreted results, and edited the manuscript. Natalia S. Gavrilova conducted statistical analyses and prepared the manuscript.

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Correspondence to Leonid A. Gavrilov.

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Gavrilov, L.A., Gavrilova, N.S. Exploring Patterns of Human Mortality and Aging: A Reliability Theory Viewpoint. Biochemistry Moscow 89, 341–355 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1134/S0006297924020123

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