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A novel attempt to describe the impact of infectious disease on the nation’s economy: an illustration through the Econo-epidemics model

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Abstract

The impacts of pandemic situation on the health and economy of any nation are indeed significant. Several paradigms are present, where the nations’s economy has stumbled due to impact of infectious diseases. Hence, we formulate an econo-epidemics model to study economic impact of infectious disease. The structure is amalgamated with Solow growth functions to describe effect of epidemiological factors on economy. Numerous numerical experiments, viz. bifurcation analysis, production of capital growth profile, etc., is conducted to provide valuable insights into the potential outcomes and dynamics of the economy. Additionally, we consider the impact of demographic stochasticity on the economy of third-tier countries, Bangladesh and Tanzania, as these nations face unique challenges and vulnerabilities. Enumeration of probability of economic losses in upcoming years and stationary distributions on the capital growth data of those countries provide an outline of strengthening the economy after a period of depreciation caused by an infectious disease outbreak. Overall, the statistical experiments and analysis of capital data provide valuable information about the potential economic consequences of infectious diseases. This knowledge can guide the formulation of policies and schemes to mitigate economic disasters in the future and promote a resilient economy that is better prepared to handle pandemics.

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Acknowledgements

The author Sudipta Panda is thankful to the University Grant Commission (UGC), India (Grant Number: 201610153745) Department of Science and Technology, Government of India, for supporting the fellowship to develop this work. The author Ayan Paul is also thankful to the Department of Science and Technology, Government of India, i.e., DST INSPIRE (Grant Number: IF180793), for supporting the fellowship throughout this work. However, we are also grateful to Dr. Prabir Panja from the Haldia Institute of Technology for giving his valuable insight on developing the section 2.3. We are also thankful to both of our learned reviewers for their comments to improve the quality of the manuscript.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Agricultural and Ecological Research Unit, Indian Statistical Institute, 203, B. T. Road, Kolkata, 700108, India

    Sudipta Panda, Ayan Paul & Joydev Chattopadhyay

  2. National Institute of Health, 111 TW Alexander Dr, Durham, 27709, NC, USA

    Abhijnan Chattopadhyay

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  1. Sudipta Panda
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Correspondence to Ayan Paul.

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Panda, S., Paul, A., Chattopadhyay, A. et al. A novel attempt to describe the impact of infectious disease on the nation’s economy: an illustration through the Econo-epidemics model. Eur. Phys. J. Plus 139, 286 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1140/epjp/s13360-024-05066-6

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