Challenges in accelerating net-zero transitions: insights from transport electrification in Germany and California

Achieving climate-neutrality by mid-century necessitates a rapid decarbonisation of production and consumption systems through accelerating innovation towards net-zero solutions, particularly in energy and mobility systems as major contributors to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (Geels et al 2017, IPCC 2023). Implementing policy change aimed at climate-neutrality, however, faces significant resistance and contestation, making the governance of net-zero transitions across multiple systems a complex and difficult endeavour (EEA 2019). An example of such a multi-system transition (Rosenbloom 2020) is the electrification of transport, characterized by increasing interactions between energy and mobility systems, and facilitated through grids, storage, and digitalisation (Canzler et al 2017). This transition requires radical socio-technical changes across multiple systems and their actors (Kanger et al 2021).

As transport electrification enters the acceleration phase in pioneering regions such as California and follower countries such as Germany (IEA 2023), new types of challenges emerge. According to Markard et al (2020) such acceleration challenges include managing whole systems change alongside single innovations (Markard and Hoffmann 2016, McMeekin et al 2019), the increasingly multi-system character of transitions (Rosenbloom 2020, Ertelt and Kask 2024), resistance of declining industries (Geels 2014, Rosenbloom and Rinscheid 2020), the need for major changes in consumer practises and demand patterns (Sopjani et al 2019, Whittle et al 2019), as well as the growing complexity of governing such transitions (Braams et al 2021, Song et al 2023). These challenge types, however, have not yet been systematically investigated for unfolding transitions, raising questions about their applicability and comprehensiveness. Our study aims to close this gap. Based on our analysis of transport electrification in Germany and California, we not only highlight the cross-cutting nature of real-world challenges, but also extend the five acceleration challenges introduced by Markard et al (2020) with three additional challenge types during the acceleration phase of net-zero transitions.

First, we show that the politics of transitions (Meadowcroft 2009) extends beyond declining industries (Geels 2014) and increasingly involves contestation around establishing the rules of the game of the new system (Raven et al 2016)—which we refer to as the dual politics of acceleration in net-zero transitions. This contestation around the expanding trajectory is not just about layering new policies and institutions on top of existing ones (Lockwood 2016), but radically changing or replacing these with new ones through transformative institutional work (Rohde and Hielscher 2021) and eventual institutional change (Kivimaa and Rogge 2022). Hence, we introduce an additional challenge type called 'expansion and contestation', which encompasses contestation around defining the institutional framework conditions influencing the expanding trajectory (e.g. market design, regulation, standards). These framework conditions determine the distribution of future gains among stakeholders, and are heavily contested among competing actors—incumbents and new entrants—who seek to grow their market shares in the emerging mass markets. These new rules of the game impact the expansion of the production of novel technologies, the development and success of new business models and services, as well as the product variety for future mass markets. We argue that this represents an important additional policy intervention point going beyond the destabilisation of the old regime and the acceleration of niches (Kanger et al 2020) and suggest to call it 'building the new regime'.

Second, we find that challenges associated with the global interplay of systems and their transitions (Binz and Truffer 2017) should be explicitly considered, rather than being implicitly associated with other challenge types. This dedicated attention to 'international dynamics' includes changes to global value chains and trans-national policy feedbacks, but also diminishing international market shares of incumbents as well as increased global competition, such as when new international competitors enter domestic markets (Quitzow 2015, Binz et al 2017). Such global interdependence in net-zero transitions (Meckling and Hughes 2018) has been recognized as potential driver for accelerating transitions (Kern and Rogge 2016). For example, in export-oriented industries international competition from countries seeking industrial upgrading can speed up the adoption of technology bans by countries pursuing industrial renewal of existing industries, such as in the automotive industry transitioning from internal combustion engines towards electric vehicles (Meckling and Nahm 2019). However, international dynamics can also impede acceleration, for instance through critical material constraints (Gong and Andersen 2024), industrial protectionism slowing down stringent carbon regulation (Meckling et al 2015), trade disputes increasing the costs of net-zero technologies (Hughes and Meckling 2017), or heightened geopolitical risks (IRENA 2023), for example leading to concerns about China's role in net-zero transitions (Gosens et al 2020).

Third, we suggest explicitly considering 'justice' (Heffron and McCauley 2018) as a challenge type likely to gain importance as net-zero transitions progress to the acceleration phase. Importantly, just transitions do not only relate to compensating losers in the declining trajectory (e.g. coal workers), but rather imply the need for broader transition policies (Green 2018). Such a more holistic approach to just transitions encompasses an integrated perspective covering procedural, distributive, recognition, and restorative justice (Abram et al 2022). During the acceleration phase, concerns around ensuring the affordability of new technologies and their associated infrastructures for low-income and disadvantaged households are expected to gain political salience (Sovacool et al 2019). A case in point is the affordability of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and the need for alternatives to cheap home charging solutions for those not owning a house. Failure to address these just transition challenges adequately could result in backlash, slowing down progress towards climate-neutrality and risking unsustainable outcomes (Stark et al 2023). As such, this challenge type is highly political and closely intertwined with both decline and expansion. An example for the link between justice and expansion is the challenge of building just global value chains for critical minerals (Sovacool et al 2020).

These three additional challenge types were inductively derived as new categories, with the resulting extended analytical framework guiding our analysis and discussion. Table 1 provides an overview of the extended ⁴ list of eight challenge types associated with the acceleration phase of net-zero transitions ⁵ .

As our case, we investigate the real-world challenges arising from the electrification of private-passenger transport ⁷ , which has entered the acceleration phase and promises substantial reductions of GHG emissions (IEA 2023). We selected a comparative setting that includes California, a pioneer in transport electrification and cradle of Tesla (Wesseling et al 2015), and Germany, a quickly catching up follower country with a strong incumbent automotive industry (Mazur et al 2015). Selecting two jurisdictions which are often regarded as climate policy leaders but characterized by different institutional contexts and starting points, allowed us to identify a wider spectrum of shared and context-specific acceleration challenges. Both jurisdictions have similar policy ambitions (e.g. climate-neutrality by 2045, ICE phase-out by 2035 ⁸ ) and have seen increasing sales of electric vehicles and an expansion of their charging infrastructure (see figure 1) ⁹ . However, the relative share of EVs of the existing fleet remains very low in both jurisdictions, at approximately 4% in 2022, which is an important reminder that both jurisdictions are still at an early stage of the acceleration phase.

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Methodologically, our analysis is based on qualitative data collected through interviews with experts in Germany (16) and California (19) conducted between August 2022 and January 2023 (see annex 1). To capture as many perspectives as possible, we deliberately recruited experts from a wide range of different organizations (representing business, think tanks and society) and systems (energy, mobility and others). Interviews were implemented until they reached saturation. On average, the 35 semi-structured interviews lasted 72 minutes and were mainly held online. Interviews were recorded (if allowed), fully transcribed, and coded with the qualitative content analysis software MaxQDA. Our analysis proceeded in three steps, involving multiple rounds of iterations between both analysists. First, we conducted a bottom-up coding of all real-world acceleration challenges, resulting in two comprehensive lists for Germany and California, which we clustered by themes. Second, through top–down coding, we assessed these real-world challenges using the eight challenge types presented in table 1, with cross-checks performed by both co-authors. Finally, we compared the real-world challenges to identify similarities and differences between the two jurisdictions. To enhance robustness, this final step was limited to challenges mentioned by at least five interviewees.

2.1. Overview

2.2. Similarities between Germany and California

2.3. Differences between Germany and California

3.1. Cross-cutting nature of real-world acceleration challenges

3.2. Similarities in the challenge types identified in the acceleration phase

3.3. Differences in the challenge types identified in the acceleration phase

We make three main contributions to the transitions literature by offering an improved understanding of the challenges associated with the acceleration phase of net-zero energy-mobility transitions. Conceptually, we extend the five challenge types proposed by Markard et al (2020) with three additional ones, namely 'expansion and contestation', 'justice', and 'international dynamics'. Methodologically, we conduct a comparative analysis with 'on the ground' insights from expert interviews, thus going beyond typical single case analyses, identifying similarities and differences between Germany and California. Empirically, we offer nuanced insights into multi-system transition processes for private-passenger transport electrification in Germany and California, and highlight the cross-cutting nature of real-world acceleration challenges.

Our findings reveal similar problem structures in transport electrification across Germany and California, although with nuanced differences. As the transition accelerates, however, we observe two different political modes (Breetz et al 2018). In Germany, transport electrification policy is much more politically contested, with distinct challenges stemming from the resistance of automotive incumbency. In California, the political mode appears more technocratic, with debates focused on technical aspects and regulatory conflicts in implementing transport electrification policy. This difference could potentially be explained by California's stronger regulatory institutions where climate policy is largely designed and implemented by technocrats at the California Air Resources Board, whereas in Germany this is done by technocrats and elected officials (Meckling and Nahm 2018). Future research should further unpack the underlying political economy explaining the observed differences.

Our research design is not free from limitations. First, the identified acceleration challenges are sensitive to the timing of the interviews and the expertise of interviewees in two jurisdictions that have just entered the acceleration phase. Our findings therefore only capture a specific point in time in two rapidly changing contexts, and invite future research updates and extensions to other BEV-leaders such as Norway or China. Second, by focusing on challenges mentioned by at least five interviewees, minority opinions which offer additional real-world challenges and early insights on emerging trends, are underrepresented. Third, we recognize that our method privileges expert knowledge over more bottom-up insights, to reduce the complexity of our sampling frame. To nevertheless capture as many perspectives as possible, we intentionally recruited experts from a diverse array of backgrounds. Finally, our research design focuses exclusively on the electrification of private cars to empirically contain the case and enable a meaningful comparison, but we acknowledge that reaching net-zero targets will require a broader mobility transition encompassing, for example, the electrification of trucks, the expansion of public transport, the build-up of cycling infrastructure and changes in mobility practises.

The extended analytical framework proposed in this paper—summarized in table 1—is not free from some conceptual overlaps between its eight types of acceleration challenges. For example, governance challenges are best seen as a type which permeates all other challenge types. In our view, this conceptual overlap underscores a fundamental limitation of stylized typologies rather than a flaw in our research design. Our empirical analysis clearly demonstrates the cross-cutting nature of real-world acceleration challenges, which often defy neat categorization, and emphasizes the need for research that can accommodate the nuanced nature of inductive observations.

Based on our analysis we advocate for a research agenda that pays closer attention to the role of 'expansion and contestation', 'justice', and 'international dynamics' for accelerating transitions, all of which are highly political and interconnected issues. By highlighting the importance of 'expansion and contestation' (understood in terms of new system building) alongside 'decline and resistance' (understood in terms of old system destabilization)—two distinct political logics that unfold concomitantly during the acceleration phase—we emphasize the dual politics of accelerating transitions, thereby contributing to the literature on the politics of acceleration (Roberts et al 2018). Without explicit attention to the political contestations around setting the new rules of the game which shape future gains, the democratic scrutiny for justice considerations in new system building might be neglected. Such justice considerations are relevant not only for compensating losers in the declining trajectory, but are equally important for ensuring the inclusion of marginalized communities in the expanding net-zero trajectory. Likewise, since net-zero transitions such as transport electrification are global in nature, it will be increasingly important to consider the international dynamics in declining and expanding trajectories. Finally, whether the broader renaissance of green industrial policy and domestic content requirements either helps accelerate (e.g. through policy feedback) or impedes (e.g. through trade inefficiencies) net-zero transitions remains to be seen.

In conclusion, we argue that in the acceleration phase it becomes essential to complement the focus on old system destabilization with dedicated attention to new system building, as this is where future winners and losers are determined. The resulting dual politics of accelerating transitions will be particularly true for multi-system transitions for which the new rules of the game are currently being written by diverse actors from multiple systems, including policy makers, society, research and business actors —incumbents and new entrants alike ¹⁶ . Importantly, at the beginning of the acceleration phase, these new rules will be set in stone for the emerging new regime with expected long-lasting impacts on net-zero transitions. Ultimately, we argue that a better understanding of how political contestation shapes the new rules of our climate-neutral future will advance insights into how to globally accelerate just net-zero transitions.

This research received funding from the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (Grant Agreement No. 852730). We are grateful to all interviewees for taking the time to share their expertise with us. We thank David Schmitz and Qi Song for outstanding research assistance, as well as Jonas Meckling and Aslı Ateş for their valuable comments. We also thank Frank Geels, the participants at workshops in Oslo and Oxford, Meike Löhr and other discussants at the EuSPRI forum 2023 in Brighton for their constructive feedback on earlier versions of this paper. ChatGPT is acknowledged for assisting with proofreading the original manuscript. Finally, we would like to thank the reviewers for their thoughtful comments.

The data cannot be made publicly available upon publication because they contain sensitive personal information. The data that support the findings of this study are available upon reasonable request from the authors.

The supplementary material includes two tables of the identified real-world acceleration challenges in Germany and California, with their respective descriptions and assigned challenge types. These are provided at the Zenodo community of the EMPOCI project: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10776855 (Rogge and Goedeking 2024).