Abstract
The studies of the applicability of simulated precipitation in hydrological calculations and forecasts are presented on the example of the Amur basin rivers. It is shown that the use of simulated precipitation has a positive effect on forecasting rainfall floods in case of a sparse observational network. There is an especially noticeable lack of hydrological and precipitation data on the catchments of the Amur right-bank tributaries located in China (the Songhua River and its tributaries), whose runoff is a significant contributor to the water balance of the Middle and Lower Amur. It is revealed that the catchment-averaged fluctuations in simulated 5-day total precipitation above and below a certain threshold are linked to the temporal variations in water levels at the outlets of the Amur partial catchments.
REFERENCES
E. M. Verbitskaya, S. V. Ageeva, I. O. Dugina, I. M. Dunaeva, N. F. Efremova, S. O. Romanskii, and V. V. Tarasyuk, "Catastrophic Flood on the Amur River in Summer 2013: Features and Causes," Meteorol. Gidrol., No. 10 (2015) [Russ. Meteorol. Hydrol., No. 10, 40 (2015)].
E. M. Verbitskaya and S. O. Romanskii, "Results of Testing Short-range Operational Forecasts of the Khab-15 WRF-ARW Mesoscale Model for the Far Eastern Region of Russia," in Results of Testing New and Advanced Technologies, Models, and Methods of Hydrometeorological Forecasting, No. 43 (2016) [in Russian].
N. F. Efremova, "Analysis of the Long-term Variations in the Annual Runoff of the Rivers in the Amur Basin," Trudy DVNIGMI, No. 137 (1992).
Manual on the Global Data-processing and Forecasting System. Annex IV to the WMO Technical Regulations (WMO-No. 485) (WMO, Geneva, 2019) [Transl. from English].
Surface Water Resources of the USSR, Vol. 18: The Far East, Issue 1: The Upper and Middle Amur, Ed. by A. P. Muranov (Gidrometeoizdat, Leningrad, 1966) [in Russian].
Surface Water Resources of the USSR, Vol. 18: The Far East, Issue 2: The Lower Amur, Ed. by A. P. Muranov (Gidrometeoizdat, Leningrad, 1972) [in Russian].
E. P. Teteryatnikova, "General Conditions of the Catastrophic Flood Formation on the Amur River," in Floods and Flood Protection: Proceedings of the Scientific and Technical Workshop, Khabarovsk, August 12–14, 1968 [in Russian].
E. P. Teteryatnikova, "Consideration of Some Features in the Development of Atmospheric Processes for the Lang-range Forecasting of the Amur Water Content," Trudy DVNIGMI, No. 39 (1972).
S.-J. Choi, D.-H. Cha, and D.-K. Lee, "Simulation of the 18-d Summer Heavy Rainfall over East Asia Using a Regional Climate Model," J. Geophys. Res., No. D12, 113 (2008).
C. Keil, H. Volkert, and D. Majewski, "The Oder Flood in July 1997: Transport Routes of Precipitable Water Diagnosed with an Operational Forecast Model," Geophys. Res. Lett., No. 2, 26 (1999).
M. R. K. Lowrey and Z. Yang, "Assessing the Capability of a Regional-scale Weather Model to Simulate Extreme Precipitation Patterns and Flooding in Central Texas," Wea. Forecast., No. 6, 23 (2008).
S. Romanskiy and E. Verbitskaya, "The 2013 Amur River Flood: Operational Numerical Simulation of Prolonged Precipitation," J. Meteorol. Soc. Japan, No. 2, 94 (2016).
W. C. Skamarock J. B. Klemp, J. Dudhia, D. O. Gill, D. M. Barker, M. G. Duda, X.-Y. Huang, and W. A. Wang, A Description of the Advanced Research WRF Version 3 (NCAR, Boulder, 2008).
WRF Model. User Guide, https://github.com/wrf-model/Users_Guide (Accessed April 25, 2023).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
Translated from Meteorologiya i Gidrologiya, 2024, No. 1, pp. 28-37. https://doi.org/10.52002/0130-2906-2024-1-28-37.
Publisher’s Note. Allerton Press remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
About this article
Cite this article
Verbitskaya, E.M., Ageeva, S.V., Gonchukov, L.V. et al. Applicability of Simulated Precipitation for the Rainfall Flood Forecasting in the Amur Basin. Russ. Meteorol. Hydrol. 49, 17–24 (2024). https://doi.org/10.3103/S1068373924010035
Received:
Revised:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.3103/S1068373924010035