Abstract
The Upper Indus Basin (UIB) is a major water resource for Pakistan, and recent years have seen it profoundly affected by climate change, resulting in catastrophic events. Analyzing climatic patterns in UIB and its sub-basins is vital for sustainable water resource management. This research delves into the precipitation and temperature trends within the Gilgit and Hunza River basins (sub-basins of UIB) from 1980 to 2019, utilizing an extensive dataset comprising ground station records and global climate datasets such as CRU and ERA 5. Our findings indicate a notable increase in temperatures, particularly pronounced in the Hunza basin compared to Gilgit. Conversely, precipitation trends reveal a predominant decrease. Employing validation techniques, we confirmed that ERA 5 surpassed CRU in providing accurate temperature and precipitation data. Employing methods including the Mann–Kendall, Sen's slope, and Abrupt Change Point Tests, we identified temperature increases of 0.21 °C and 0.25 °C per decade. Additionally, CRU assessments unveiled a decline in diurnal temperature. Seasonal analysis showcased significant temperature rises during summer, autumn, and spring, while winter conditions remained consistently stable. Our analysis also pointed to slight increases in summer precipitation, with winters exhibiting heightened wetness according to the CRU datasets. Continual monitoring of the Upper Indus Basin (UIB) is imperative for enhancing precision and reliability. This proactive approach, complemented by meticulous spatiotemporal analysis, will establish a robust foundation for comprehending and addressing climate changes in the region.
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The data used in this work are accessible upon request from the corresponding author.
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Acknowledgements
The authors extend their gratitude to the Pakistan Meteorological Department for their generous assistance in providing ground station data for validation purposes. Additionally, the authors wish to express their appreciation to the anonymous reviewers for their valuable contributions, which have helped refine the present work.
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Shazil, M.S., Mahmood, S.A., Ahmad, S. et al. Assessing long-term variability and trends in temperature and precipitation in Gilgit and Hunza river basins. Environ Earth Sci 83, 248 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-024-11571-9
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-024-11571-9