Abstract
This paper investigates the combined influence of the preceding August-September-October (ASO) tropical cyclones (TCs) over the Western North Pacific (WNP) and El Niño on the following spring sea ice in the Beaufort Sea. We find that during El Niño years, the preceding enhanced ASO accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) from the WNP TCs activity contributes to the reduction of sea ice in the Beaufort Sea in the following spring. This phenomenon is attributable to the amplifying effect of preceding positive ASO ACE anomalies over the WNP on the subsequent El Niño intensity. The enhanced El Niño could trigger a poleward-propagating Rossby wave train, leading to an overall northward PNA-like positive circulation anomaly, including an anticyclonic circulation anomaly over the Beaufort Sea which can persist into the following spring. This, in turn, induces positive surface air temperature anomalies in the region, accelerating sea ice melt. Additionally, the above anomalous circulation increases water vapor transport to the Beaufort Sea and in turn contributes to higher lower tropospheric humidity, further amplifying the warming over the region. Furthermore, the strengthening of the Beaufort High and deepening of the Aleutian Low alter the surface wind field, driving sea ice outflow from the area. Consequently, the following spring sea ice cover and thickness in the Beaufort Sea decrease, and summer sea ice melt accelerates. This discovery suggests that the preceding ASO TCs activities can be a novel predictor to predict spring sea ice in the Beaufort Sea.
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Data availability
The data that support the findings of this study are freely available. The IBTrACS data can be obtained from https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/international-best-track-archive. The HadISST dataset is available at https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadisst. The OLR - Monthly CDR data can be obtained from https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/climate-data-records/outgoing-longwave-radiation-monthly. The ERA5 reanalysis data can be obtained from https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/dataset/ecmwf-reanalysis-v5. The sea ice concentration and motion data can be obtained from https://nsidc.org/data/nsidc-0051/versions/2 and https://nsidc.org/data/nsidc-0116/versions/4, respectively. The sea ice thickness data is available at https://psc.apl.uw.edu/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/data.
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Acknowledgements
We thank Mr. Shumeng Zhang and Ms. Ran An for their help during the preparation of the manuscript. This work was jointly supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (42130607, 42288101) and Shandong Natural Science Foundation Project (ZR2019ZD12). We are grateful to the NOAA and ECMWF for providing the reanalysis data, the UK Met Office Hadley Centre for providing the HadISST dataset, and the NSIDC and the Polar Science Center (PSC) in the Applied Physics Laboratory (APL) department at the University of Washington for providing the sea ice data.
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This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (42130607, 42288101) and Shandong Natural Science Foundation Project (ZR2019ZD12).
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JL conceived the idea. JL, DY and FH contributed to the study conception and design. Material preparation, data collection and analysis were performed by DY, RS, and XT. The first draft of the manuscript was written by DY, JL, and XT and all authors commented on previous versions of the manuscript. JL, DY, RS, and RL helped revise the manuscript. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.
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Ye, D., Li, J., Huang, F. et al. Influence of the preceding August-September-October tropical cyclones over the Western North Pacific on the following spring sea ice in the Beaufort Sea: the bridging role of El Niño. Clim Dyn (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-024-07202-5
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-024-07202-5