Radiation-induced lung injury (RILI) is a dose-limiting toxicity for cancer patients receiving thoracic radiotherapy. As such, it is important to characterize metabolic associations with the early and late stages of RILI, namely pneumonitis and pulmonary fibrosis. Recently, Raman spectroscopy has shown utility for the differentiation of pneumonitic and fibrotic tissue states in a mouse model; however, the specific metabolite-disease associations remain relatively unexplored from a Raman perspective. This work harnesses Raman spectroscopy and supervised machine learning to investigate metabolic associations with radiation pneumonitis and pulmonary fibrosis in a mouse model. To this end, Raman spectra were collected from lung tissues of irradiated/non-irradiated C3H/HeJ and C57BL/6J mice and labelled as normal, pneumonitis, or fibrosis, based on histological assessment. Spectra were decomposed into metabolic scores via group and basis restricted non-negative matrix factorization, classified with random forest (GBR-NMF-RF), and metabolites predictive of RILI were identified. To provide comparative context, spectra were decomposed and classified via principal component analysis with random forest (PCA-RF), and full spectra were classified with a convolutional neural network (CNN), as well as logistic regression (LR). Through leave-one-mouse-out cross-validation, we observed that GBR-NMF-RF was comparable to other methods by measure of accuracy and log-loss (p > 0.10 by Mann–Whitney U test), and no methodology was dominant across all classification tasks by measure of area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Moreover, GBR-NMF-RF results were directly interpretable and identified collagen and specific collagen precursors as top fibrosis predictors, while metabolites with immune and inflammatory functions, such as serine and histidine, were top pneumonitis predictors. Further support for GBR-NMF-RF and the identified metabolite associations with RILI was found as CNN interpretation heatmaps revealed spectral regions consistent with these metabolites.