Abstract
The NW Himalaya has been subjected to frequent disastrous landslides of different types owing to frequent extreme rainfall events and rock mass shearing caused by structural and/or lithological contrast. Though majority of the landslides in the NW Himalaya are of complex type comprising debris and loose rock mass that may result into debris flow and/or rockfall, their potential behavior is rarely explored. The present study aims to evaluate the recurrence of one such complex landslide (0.23 Mm2) of Yamuna Valley, NW Himalaya that is subjected to rock mass shearing and the region accommodating this landslide receives frequent extreme rainfall events. A huge slope failure in this landslide occurred on 12 September, 2017 damaging a ~ 400 m stretches of the National Highway (NH) road. The landslide location has strategic significance, since up to 0.3–0.4 million pilgrims travel annually on the road passing through the landslide slope. To evaluate the potential behavior of landslide and to understand the factors causing this landslide (pre-failure analysis), slope stability analysis and rockfall simulation were performed. Pre-failure analyses indicated that the maximum shear strain of 0.14–0.18 and total displacement of 2–8 m likely developed parallel to the slope. The possibility of rainfall triggering is explored in view of increasing rainfall, soil moisture, and surface runoff conditions. Tectonic influences are also evaluated using joints and fracture patterns in rock mass. Post-failure analysis showed that though the maximum shear strain and the total displacement had reduced to 0.07–0.15 and 2–5 m, respectively after the failure, the slope is still unstable. Rockfall simulation revealed the potential for rockfalls having energy and velocities in the range of 900–4000 kJ and 18–75 m/s, respectively.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Source of monthly datasets during the years 1982–2020: FLDAS_NOAH01_C_GL_M model (McNally et al. 2017). Spatial resolution of dataset: 0.1° (~ 10 km). Source of daily datasets: FLDAS_NOAH001_G_CA_D model (Jacob et al. 2021). Spatial resolution of dataset: 0.01° (~ 1 km). Gray bar in Fig. 6d–f highlight Aug–Sep daily pattern for which 3-hourly datasets are presented in a–d. The outliers in a–c represents extreme values in respective months for the respective parameters
Source of hourly datasets: GLDAS_NOAH025_3H model (Beaudoing and Rodell 2020). Blue rectangle in Fig. 7a–d highlights possible cause (antecedent rainfall) of first slope failure. e Seismic events during Aug–Sep 2017. Data source: International Seismological Centre (2022), On-line Bulletin, https://doi.org/10.31905/D808B830
Similar content being viewed by others
Data availability
Though most of the dataset has been provided in the MS and table, additional raw datasets can be provided, if requested.
References
Agarwal NC, Kumar G (1973) Geology of the upper Bhagirathi and Yamuna Valleys, Uttarkashi district, Kumaun Himalaya. Himalayan Geol 3:2–23
Alexander D, Formichi R (1993) Tectonic causes of landslides. Earth Surf Proc Land 18(4):311–338
Ansari MK, Ahmed M, Rajesh Singh TN, Ghalayani I (2015) Rainfall, a major cause for rockfall hazard along the roadways, highways and railways on hilly terrains in India. Engineering geology for society and territory. Springer, Cham, pp 457–460
Bălteanu D, Micu M, Jurchescu M, Malet JP, Sima M, Kucsicsa G et al (2020) National-scale landslide susceptibility map of Romania in a European methodological framework. Geomorphology 371:107432. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2020.107432
Barton NR (1972) A model study of rock-joint deformation. Int J Rock Mech Mining Sci Geomech Abstr 9(5):579–602
Barton N, Choubey V (1977) The shear strength of rock joints in theory and practice. Rock Mech 10(1–2):1–54
Barton N, Bandis S (1982) Effects of block size on the shear behavior of jointed rock. In: Proceedings of the 23rd US Symposium on Rock Mechanics. vol. 2, pp. 739–760. American Rock Mechanics Association
Barton NR, Bandis SC (1990) Review of predictive capabilities of JRC-JCS model in engineering practice. In: Barton N, Stephansson O (eds) Rock joints. Rotterdam, pp. 603–610
Beaudoing H, Rodell M (2020) NASA/GSFC/HSL, GLDAS Noah Land Surface Model L4 3 hourly 0.25 × 0.25-degree V2.1. Greenbelt, Maryland, USA: Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC)
Bhattacharya AR, Weber K (2004) Fabric development during shear deformation in the Main Central Thrust zone, NW-Himalaya, India. Tectonophysics 387(1–4):23–46. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tecto.2004.04.026
Billi A, Salvini F, Storti F (2003) The damage zone-fault core transition in carbonate rocks: implications for fault growth, structure and permeability. J Struct Geol 25(11):1779–1794. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0191-8141(03)00037-3
Bloom CK, Howell A, Stahl T, Massey C, Singeisen C (2022) The influence of off-fault deformation zones on the near-fault distribution of coseismic landslides. Geology 50(3):272–277. https://doi.org/10.1130/G49429.1
Bowles JE (1996) Foundation analysis and design, 5th edn. McGraw-Hill, New York
Brönnimann CS (2011) Effect of groundwater on landslide triggering. EPFL. https://doi.org/10.5075/epfl-thesis-5236
Cai M, Kaiser PK, Tasaka Y, Minami M (2007) Determination of residual strength parameters of jointed rock masses using the GSI system. Int J Rock Mech Min Sci 44(2):247–265
Cascini L, Fornaro G, Peduto D (2009) Analysis at medium scale of low-resolution DInSAR data in slow-moving landslide-affected areas. ISPRS J Photogramm Remote Sens 64(6):598–611. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.isprsjprs.2009.05.003
Coulomb CA (1776) Essay on an application of the rules of maximis and minimis to some problems of statics. Acad Memoirs R Sci 7
Cui S, Pei X, Huang R (2018) Effects of geological and tectonic characteristics on the earthquake-triggered Daguangbao landslide. China Landslides 15(4):649–667. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-017-0899-3
Deere DU, Miller RP (1966) Engineering classification and index properties for intact rock. Illinois University at Urbana, USA
Dubois F, Jean M, Renouf M, Mozul R, Martin A, Bagneris M (2011) LMGC90. In: CSMA 2011 10e Colloque National en Calcul des Structures, May 2011. Presqu’île de Giens, Var
Eberhardt E, Stead D, Coggan JS (2004) Numerical analysis of initiation and progressive failure in natural rock slopes—the 1991 Randa rockslide. Int J Rock Mech Min Sci 41:69–87. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1365-1609(03)00076-5
Gong W, Juang CH, Wasowski J (2021) Geohazards and human settlements: lessons learned from multiple relocation events in Badong, China-engineering geologist’s perspective. Eng Geol 285:106051. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2021.106051
Görüm T (2019) Landslide recognition and mapping in a mixed forest environment from airborne LiDAR data. Eng Geol 258:105155. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2019.105155
Griffiths DV, Lane PA (1999) Slope stability analysis by finite elements. Geotechnique 49(3):387–403. https://doi.org/10.1680/geot.1999.49.3.387
Gupta V, Jamir I, Kumar V, Devi M (2017) Geomechanical characterisation of slopes for assessing rockfall hazards in the Upper Yamuna Valley, Northwest Higher Himalaya, India. Himalayan Geol 38(2):156–170
Haberman DL, Haberman D (2006) River of Love in an Age of Pollution. In: River of love in an age of pollution. University of California Press, USA
Healy D, Rizzo RE, Cornwell DG, Farrell NJ, Watkins H, Timms NE, Gomez-Rivas E, Smith M (2017) FracPaQ: a MATLAB™ toolbox for the quantification of fracture patterns. J Struct Geol 95:1–6. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jsg.2016.12.003
Hoek E, Bray JD (1981) Rock slope engineering. CRC Press, USA
Hoek E, Brown ET (1997) Practical estimates of rock mass strength. Int J Rock Mech Min Sci 34(8):1165–1186. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1365-1609(97)80069-X
Hoek E, Diederichs MS (2006) Empirical estimation of rock mass modulus. Int J Rock Mech Min Sci 43(2):203–15
Hoek E, Kaiser PK, Bawden WF (1995) Support of underground excavations in hard rock. AA Alkema, Rotterdam
Iverson RM (2000) Landslide triggering by rain infiltration. Water Resour Res 36(7):1897–1910. https://doi.org/10.1029/2000WR900090
Jacob J, Slinski K (2021) FLDAS noah land surface model L4 central Asia daily 0.01× 0.01 degree. Goddard Earth Sci Data Inf Serv Cent (GES DISC). https://doi.org/10.5067/VQ4CD3Y9YC0R
Jamir I, Gupta V, Kumar V, Thong GT (2017) Evaluation of potential surface instability using finite element method in Kharsali Village, Yamuna Valley, Northwest Himalaya. J Mt Sci 14:1666–1676. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11629-017-4410-3
Jamir I, Gupta V, Thong GT, Kumar V (2020) Litho-tectonic and precipitation implications on landslides, Yamuna valley, NW Himalaya. Phys Geogr 41(4):365–388. https://doi.org/10.1080/02723646.2019.1672024
Jang HS, Kang SS, Jang BA (2014) Determination of joint roughness coefficients using roughness parameters. Rock Mech Rock Eng 47(6):2061–2073
Jing L (2003) A review of techniques, advances and outstanding issues in numerical modelling for rock mechanics and rock engineering. Int J Rock Mech Min Sci 40(3):283–353. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1365-1609(03)00013-3
Karar A (2010) Impact of pilgrim tourism at Haridwar. The Anthropologist 12(2):99–105. https://doi.org/10.1080/09720073.2010.11891138
Keefer DK (1984) Landslides caused by earthquakes. Geol Soc Am Bull 95(4):406–421. https://doi.org/10.1130/0016-7606(1984)95&<406:LCBE>2.0.CO;2
Korup O (2004) Geomorphic implications of fault zone weakening: slope instability along the Alpine Fault, South Westland to Fiordland. NZ J Geol Geophys 47(2):257–267. https://doi.org/10.1080/00288306.2004.9515052
Krautblatter M, Moser M (2009) A nonlinear model coupling rockfall and rainfall intensity based\newline on a four-year measurement in a high Alpine rock wall (Reintal, German Alps). Nat Hazard 9(4):1425–1432
Kumar V, Gupta V, Jamir I, Chattoraj SL (2019) Evaluation of potential landslide damming: case study of Urni landslide, Kinnaur, Satluj valley, India. Geosci Front 10(2):753–767
Kumar V, Cauchie L, Mreyen AS, Micu M, Havenith HB (2021a) Evaluating landslide response in a seismic and rainfall regime: a case study from the SE Carpathians, Romania. Nat Hazard 21(12):3767–3788. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3767-2021
Kumar V, Jamir I, Gupta V, Bhasin RK (2021b) Inferring potential landslide damming using slope stability, geomorphic constraints, and run-out analysis: a case study from the NW Himalaya. Earth Surf Dyn 9(2):351–377. https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-9-351-2021
Leine RI, Schweizer A, Christen M, Glover J, Bartelt P, Gerber W (2014) Simulation of rockfall trajectories with consideration of rock shape. Multibody Syst Dyn 32(2):241–271
Leroueil S, Locat J, Vaunat J, Picarelli L, Lee H, Faure R (1996) Geotechnical characterization of slope movements. In: Landslides. pp. 53–74
Li C, Ma T, Zhu X, Li W (2011) The power–law relationship between landslide occurrence and rainfall level. Geomorphology 130(3–4):221–229. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2011.03.018
Mărgărint MC, Grozavu A, Patriche CV (2013) Assessing the spatial variability of coefficients of landslide predictors in different regions of Romania using logistic regression. Nat Hazard 13(12):3339–3355
Mauldon M, Dunne WM, Rohrbaugh MB Jr (2001) Circular scanlines and circular windows: new tools for characterizing the geometry of fracture traces. J Struct Geol 23(2–3):247–258. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0191-8141(00)00094-8
McNally A, Arsenault K, Kumar S, Shukla S, Peterson P, Wang S, Funk C, Peters-Lidard CD, Verdin JP (2017) A land data assimilation system for sub-Saharan Africa food and water security applications. Sci Data 4(1):1–19
Melillo M, Gariano SL, Peruccacci S, Sarro R, Mateos RM, Brunetti MT (2020) Rainfall and rockfalls in the Canary Islands: assessing a seasonal link. Nat Hazard 20(8):2307–2317
Mohr O (1914) Treatises from the field of technical mechanics. W. Ernst & Son
Morelli S, Monroy VH, Gigli G, Falorni G, Rocha EA, Casagli N (2010) The Tancitaro debris avalanche: characterization, propagation and modeling. J Volcanol Geoth Res 193(1–2):93–105. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2010.03.008
Ojha AK, Srivastava DC, Sharma R (2022) Fluctuation in the fluid and tectonic pressures in the South Almora Thrust Zone (SATZ), Kumaun Lesser Himalaya; paleoseismic implications. J Struct Geol 160:104631. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jsg.2022.104631
Pradhan RM, Singh A, Ojha AK, Biswal TK (2022) Structural controls on bedrock weathering in crystalline basement terranes and its implications on groundwater resources. Sci Rep 12(1):11815. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-15889-x
Qi T, Meng X, Qing F, Zhao Y, Shi W, Chen G, Zhang Y, Li Y, Yue D, Su X, Guo F (2021) Distribution and characteristics of large landslides in a fault zone: a case study of the NE Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Geomorphology 379:107592. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2021.107592
Roy P, Jain N, Martha TR, Kumar KV (2022) Reactivating Balia Nala landslide, Nainital, India—a disaster in waiting. Landslides. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-022-01881-z
Scheingross JS, Minchew BM, Mackey BH, Simons M, Lamb MP, Hensley S (2013) Fault-zone controls on the spatial distribution of slow-moving landslides. Bulletin 125(3–4):473–489. https://doi.org/10.1130/B30719.1
Searle MP, Metcalfe RP, Rex AJ, Norry MJ (1993) Field relations, petrogenesis and emplacement of the Bhagirathi leucogranite, Garhwal Himalaya. Geolog Soc 74(1):429–444. https://doi.org/10.1144/GSL.SP.1993.074.01.29
Setiawan H, Wilopo W, Wiyoso T, Fathani TF, Karnawati D (2019) Investigation and numerical simulation of the 22 February 2018 landslide-triggered long-traveling debris flow at Pasir Panjang Village, Brebes Regency of Central Java, Indonesia. Landslides 16(11):2219–2232. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-019-01245-0
Shaller PJ, Doroudian M, Hart MW, Chen MT (2020) The Eureka Valley landslide: evidence of a dual failure mechanism for a long-runout landslide. Lithosphere 2020(1) https://doi.org/10.2113/2020/8860819
Singh K, Thakur VC (2001) Microstructures and strain variation across the footwall of the Main Central Thrust Zone, Garhwal Himalaya, India. J Asian Earth Sci 19(1–2):17–29. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1367-9120(00)00006-7
Srivastava HB, Tripathy NR (2007) Geometrical analysis of mesoscopic shear zones in the crystalline rocks of MCT Zone of Garhwal Higher Himalaya. J Asian Earth Sci 30(5–6):599–612. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jseaes.2006.10.003
Stanley T, Kirschbaum DB, Pascale S, Kapnick S (2020) Extreme precipitation in the Himalayan landslide hotspot. Satellite precipitation measurement. Springer, Cham, pp 1087–1111
Sundriyal Y, Kumar V, Chauhan N, Kaushik S, Ranjan R, Punia MK (2023a) Brief communication: the Northwest Himalaya towns slipping towards potential disaster. Nat Hazard 23(4):1425–1431
Sundriyal Y, Kumar V, Khan F, Puniya MK, Kaushik S, Chauhan N, Bagri DS, Rana N (2023b) Impact of potential flood on riverbanks in extreme hydro-climatic events, NW Himalaya. Bull Eng Geol Environ 82:196
Take WA, Beddoe RA, Davoodi-Bilesavar R, Phillips R (2015) Effect of antecedent groundwater conditions on the triggering of static liquefaction landslides. Landslides 12(3):469–479. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-014-0496-7
Terzaghi K (1950) Mechanism of landslides. In: Application of geology to engineering practice. Sidney Paige. https://doi.org/10.1130/Berkey.1950.83
Upton P, Song BR, Koons PO (2018) Topographic control on shallow fault structure and strain partitioning near Whataroa, New Zealand demonstrates weak Alpine Fault. NZ J Geol Geophys 61(1):1–8. https://doi.org/10.1080/00288306.2017.1397706
Varnes DJ (1978) Slope movement types and processes. Special Rep 176:11–33
Wang F, Fan X, Yunus AP, Siva Subramanian S, Alonso-Rodriguez A, Dai L, Xu Q, Huang R (2019) Coseismic landslides triggered by the 2018 Hokkaido, Japan (Mw 6.6), earthquake: spatial distribution, controlling factors, and possible failure mechanism. Landslides. 16(8):1551–66. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-019-01187-7
Wei J, Zhao Z, Xu C, Wen Q (2019) Numerical investigation of landslide kinetics for the recent Mabian landslide (Sichuan, China). Landslides 16(11):2287–2298. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-019-01237-0
Zheng H, Shi Z, Shen D, Peng M, Hanley KJ, Ma C, Zhang L (2021) Recent advances in stability and failure mechanisms of landslide dams. Front Earth Sci 9:201. https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2021.659935
Acknowledgements
IJ is thankful to Director, CSIR-National Geophysical Research Institute, Hyderabad (India) for consistent support. We are thankful to Editor Prof. Mihai Ciprian Margarint and two anonymous reviewers for their constructive comments and suggestions.
Funding
This work was supported by the Department of Science and Technology, Government of India, New Delhi [INSPIRE fellowship IF130881].
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Contributions
IJ, DVG, and VK conceived the idea. IJ and VK performed the field data collection and laboratory analysis. IJ, VK, DVG, VG, and TRM contributed in the numerical simulations. IJ and AKO interpreted the fracture pattern. All authors contributed to the writing of the final draft.
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Conflict of interests
The authors declare that they have no conflict of interests.
Additional information
Publisher's Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.
About this article
Cite this article
Jamir, I., Kumar, V., Ojha, A.K. et al. Evaluating failure regime of an active landslide using instability and rockfall simulation, NW Himalaya. Environ Earth Sci 83, 256 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-024-11540-2
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-024-11540-2