Track displacement is an important factor of track irregularity. Existing researches related with track displacement prediction generally ignore the influence from underground construction engineering such as shield tunneling, resulting in inaccurate estimation of track displacement. To fill this gap, we propose a three-stage framework to predict the track displacement when the shield tunnel under crosses the existing tunnel. Firstly, by considering the curved shield tunneling, a three-dimensional model is constructed to estimate the total ground displacement during the whole tunneling process. Furthermore, the soil-tunnel interaction model is established to estimate the deformation of the existing tunnel. To tackle the issue of unknown node displacements, cubic splines are used to interpolate the unknown values of tunnel displacements. On this basis, the direct stiffness method is used to estimate the track displacement and to calculate the track irregularity. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed method is verified and the prediction performance on the track irregularity is evaluated using a real engineering case and the finite element simulation. The main contributions of this article lie in the modeling of the curved scenario for the estimation of the ground loss, as well as the combination of cubic splines and direct stiffness method, which improve the accuracy of the track displacement estimation during shield tunneling.

轨道位移是轨道不平顺的重要因素。现有轨道位移预测相关研究普遍忽视了盾构隧道等地下施工工程的影响，导致轨道位移估算不准确。为了填补这一空白，我们提出了一个三阶段框架来预测盾构隧道穿越现有隧道时的轨道位移。首先，考虑曲线盾构掘进，构建三维模型来估计整个隧道掘进过程中的总地面位移。此外，还建立了土体-隧道相互作用模型来估计现有隧道的变形。为了解决未知节点位移的问题，使用三次样条对未知的隧道位移值进行插值。在此基础上，采用直接刚度法估计轨道位移并计算轨道不平顺度。最后，通过实际工程案例和有限元仿真验证了所提方法的有效性，并评估了轨道不平顺的预测性能。本文的主要贡献在于对地面损失估计的曲线场景进行建模，以及三次样条和直接刚度法的结合，提高了盾构隧道施工期间轨道位移估计的准确性。通过实际工程案例和有限元仿真验证了该方法的有效性并评估了轨道不平顺的预测性能。本文的主要贡献在于对地面损失估计的曲线场景进行建模，以及三次样条和直接刚度法的结合，提高了盾构隧道施工期间轨道位移估计的准确性。通过实际工程案例和有限元仿真验证了该方法的有效性并评估了轨道不平顺的预测性能。本文的主要贡献在于对地面损失估计的曲线场景进行建模，以及三次样条和直接刚度法的结合，提高了盾构隧道施工期间轨道位移估计的准确性。