Abstract

In recent years, a sustainable increase in cereal crop yields in Russia can be observed. A positive trend in meteorological conditions is often considered as the reason for this phenomenon, while it is not actually supported by any solid scientific evidence. The objective of the surveys is to analyze the potential cereal-crop yield changes under climate impacts in Russia over the period from 2000 to 2022. In order to achieve the objective, the WOFOST crop growth simulation model allowing us to comprehensively assess the impact of all the meteorological parameters was used. The assessment for a set of 42 representative points in different regions of Russia was performed taking into account daily meteorological parameters and soil types. Simulation at the level of the potential crop yield was based only on the inputs of meteorological parameter variables since the impacts of the other factors on the crop yield were considered as absent. The potential yield trends in different regions of Russia are multidirectional. The trend in meteorological conditions favorable for cereal crops was recorded in the North Caucasus, the lower Volga River surrounding region, the western Siberia region, and the Far East. However, a tendency to decline in the potential crop yields is observed in the Central and Central-Chernozem, upper Volga River, and southern Middle Siberia regions over recent years. Overall, the cereal crop yield growth tends to match well with a trend in agrometeorological condition changes in most cereal producing regions in Russia over the recent years. Unidirectional trends in the simulated potential crop yields under the projected meteorological conditions and the crop yield statistics are not observed only in the regions of Central European Russia. Since the role of a climate factor on variation in cereal-crop yields is less significant there, the impact of government measures to maintain sustainable agricultural development may be assumed.

中文翻译：

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关于当前气候变化对俄罗斯谷物作物增产影响的见解

摘要

近年来，俄罗斯谷物产量持续增长。气象条件的积极趋势通常被认为是这种现象的原因，但实际上并没有任何可靠的科学证据支持。调查的目的是分析2000年至2022年期间俄罗斯在气候影响下谷物作物产量的潜在变化。为了实现这一目标，WOFOST作物生长模拟模型使我们能够全面评估所有因素的影响使用了气象参数。考虑到日常气象参数和土壤类型，对俄罗斯不同地区的 42 个代表点进行了评估。潜在作物产量水平的模拟仅基于气象参数变量的输入，因为其他因素对作物产量的影响被认为不存在。俄罗斯不同地区的潜在产量趋势是多向的。北高加索地区、伏尔加河下游周边地区、西西伯利亚地区和远东地区的气象条件有利于谷物作物的趋势。然而，近年来，中部和中部黑钙土、伏尔加河上游和中西伯利亚南部地区的农作物潜在产量呈下降趋势。总体而言，近年来俄罗斯大部分谷物产区谷物产量增长与农业气象条件变化趋势相匹配。仅在俄罗斯中欧地区观察到预测气象条件下模拟潜在作物产量和作物产量统计的单向趋势。由于那里气候因素对谷类作物产量变化的作用不太显着，因此可以假设政府维持农业可持续发展措施的影响。