Purpose

The basis of safe flight is the management of risks. This paper aims to present a new process-based risk assessment model, with an approach to calculate the risk score.

Design/methodology/approach

Since thousands of minor changes occur within ground operations, it is difficult to calculate how much risk these variations will pose. This paper proposes a risk assessment model fed from analysis of ground operation processes using functional resonance analysis method (FRAM) and fuzzy logic.

Findings

FRAM is used to detect variations in ground operation. Using the FRAM analysis, it has been revealed how much risk the process steps described in the procedures involve. The risk score was calculated by combining the probability value obtained from the airline’s database and the severity assessment of the expert group in fuzzy logic. The risk level can be monitored dynamically with the transfer of events in the airline’s database to the process-based risk assessment model.

Originality/value

FRAM analysis, which is used to detect function variations before undesirable risk occurs, has brought a proactive approach to risk assessment. The process-based risk assessment model allows the creation of new safety parameter indicators to be followed to reduce the risk level of the function with a high-risk level. The proposed approach can be used for other operational areas in aviation as well.

中文翻译：

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用于评估地面操作风险的功能共振分析方法 (FRAM) 的模糊逻辑演化

目的

安全飞行的基础是风险管理。本文旨在提出一种新的基于流程的风险评估模型，以及计算风险评分的方法。

设计/方法论/途径

由于地面操作中会发生数以千计的微小变化，因此很难计算这些变化会带来多大的风险。本文提出了一种风险评估模型，该模型利用功能共振分析方法（FRAM）和模糊逻辑对地面运行过程进行分析。

发现

FRAM 用于检测地面操作的变化。使用 FRAM 分析，可以揭示程序中描述的工艺步骤涉及的风险有多大。风险评分是通过结合从航空公司数据库获得的概率值和专家组在模糊逻辑中的严重性评估来计算的。通过将航空公司数据库中的事件传输到基于流程的风险评估模型，可以动态监控风险级别。

原创性/价值

FRAM 分析用于在不良风险发生之前检测功能变化，为风险评估带来了主动的方法。基于流程的风险评估模型允许创建新的安全参数指标来遵循，以降低高风险级别功能的风险级别。所提出的方法也可用于航空的其他业务领域。