The unemployment theory of Pissarides-Mortensen-Diamond is applied to the close-by geographic comparison identification strategy to analyze the effect of the minimum wage in New York State. The increase in the minimum wage in 2018 is estimated to raise the natural rate of unemployment almost 20 percent. The elasticity of the unemployment rate with respect to the minimum wage is 2.11 in New York City and 3.3 in the suburbs. To account for varying local labor market conditions, the minimum wage rise was phased in and geographically differentiated, which permits a within-state comparison. A labor market matching function and a Beveridge-type market tightness equation are estimated in an environment of low and falling unemployment rates, thus posing a strong natural experiment test of the hypothesis that the minimum wage causes negligible employment effects. It is estimated that the higher two of the three wage tiers caused a loss of about 39,000 jobs, which is in contrast to the dominant narrative of no effect when using the geographic comparison technique.

将Pissarides-Mortensen-Diamond的失业理论应用到近距离地理比较识别策略中，分析纽约州最低工资的影响。2018年最低工资的提高预计将使自然失业率提高近20%。纽约市失业率相对于最低工资的弹性为2.11，郊区为3.3。为了考虑到不同的当地劳动力市场条件，最低工资的上涨是分阶段进行的，并且按地域进行了区分，这样就可以进行州内比较。在失业率较低且不断下降的环境下估计劳动力市场匹配函数和贝弗里奇型市场紧张度方程，因此，对最低工资对就业影响可以忽略不计的假设进行了强有力的自然实验检验。据估计，三个工资等级中较高的两个等级造成了约 39,000 个工作岗位的流失，这与使用地理比较技术时认为没有影响的主流说法形成鲜明对比。