Abstract

Possibilities of using the basic technology of probabilistic scenario forecasting of the regional climate to obtain detailed estimates of future changes in applied indicators of the thermal regime in the territory of federal districts and individual subjects of the Russian Federation are considered. Probabilistic ensemble estimates of future changes are presented for climatic indicators such as seasonal extremes of air temperature for a given averaging period, the sum of active temperatures, energy consumption indices for cold and warm seasons, and other characteristics of intra-annual periods with air temperatures above/below threshold values. The changes in the considered parameters of the thermal regime have been analyzed. It is shown that the main features of changes expected by the middle of the 21st century detected by the results of modeling over most of the territory of Russia are well manifested based on the observational data in the interval 1961–2020.

中文翻译：

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俄罗斯适应气候变化的热力状况应用指标变化的概率估计

摘要

考虑使用区域气候概率情景预测的基本技术来获得对俄罗斯联邦联邦地区和个别主体的热状况应用指标的未来变化的详细估计的可能性。针对气候指标（例如给定平均期间的季节性极端气温、活动气温总和、冷季和暖季的能源消耗指数以及年内气温的其他特征）提供未来变化的概率集合估计高于/低于阈值。分析了所考虑的热状态参数的变化。结果表明，根据1961-2020年期间的观测数据，俄罗斯大部分领土的建模结果很好地体现了预计到21世纪中叶变化的主要特征。