Abstract

Extreme states of the stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) affect the average position of the main propagation trajectories of synoptic vortices in the Northern Hemisphere over a time period from 2 weeks to 2 months. This time scale is considered one of the most difficult periods in forecasting. Based on the analysis of data from idealized numerical experiments on the Isca platform, we have studied the processes of formation of anomalous positions of storm tracks in the Atlantic–European region as a response to sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) and events of extremely strong SPV during various phases of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). It is shown that in winter it is impossible to unambiguously talk about the southward displacement of the Atlantic storm track during El Niño events without taking into account the intensity of SPV. The intensity of SPV, expressed as the zonal component of wind speed, averaged along 60° N at the level of 10 hPa, has its maximum predictive potential during El Niño.

中文翻译：

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理想化模型实验中 ENSO 阶段对流层动力学对平流层极地涡旋极端状态的响应

摘要

平流层极地涡旋（SPV）的极端状态影响北半球天气涡旋主要传播轨迹在2周至2个月的时间内的平均位置。这个时间尺度被认为是预测中最困难的时期之一。基于对伊斯卡平台理想化数值实验数据的分析，我们研究了大西洋-欧洲地区风暴路径异常位置的形成过程，作为对平流层突然变暖（SSW）和极强SPV事件的响应厄尔尼诺南方涛动 (ENSO) 的各个阶段。结果表明，在冬季，如果不考虑 SPV 的强度，就不可能明确谈论厄尔尼诺事件期间大西洋风暴路径向南的位移。SPV 的强度以风速的纬向分量表示，在 10 hPa 水平上沿 60° N 方向平均，在厄尔尼诺期间具有最大的预测潜力。