Abstract

A new model of world population growth, including discrete equations for the dynamics of percentage increases in integral inflows and outflows and a balance equation for the population size, is proposed. The principle of dynamic balance of a demographic process and the condition of interval dynamic consistency based on this principle are formulated. A sample example of forecasting world population growth in the period from 2011 to 2021 is given, which demonstrates the possibility of building linear dynamic trends in the percentage growth of the integral number of dead people dynamically consistent with corresponding intervals of statistics on the integral numbers of children born in earlier periods. Based on the proposed model, world population growth after 2021 is predicted assuming that the population size will reach 9.466 billion in 2050 and will attain the maximum level of 9.651 billion in 2062, after which the world population will decline to amount to 8.670 billion in 2100.

中文翻译：

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人口过程动态平衡原理与世界人口增长的限度

摘要

提出了一种新的世界人口增长模型，包括整体流入和流出百分比增长动态的离散方程以及人口规模的平衡方程。提出了人口过程动态平衡原理以及基于该原理的区间动态一致性条件。给出了预测 2011 年至 2021 年期间世界人口增长的示例，证明了建立与死亡人数整数统计的相应区间动态一致的线性动态趋势的可能性。早期出生的孩子。根据提出的模型，预测2021年后世界人口增长，假设2050年人口规模将达到94.66亿，2062年达到最高水平96.51亿，之后世界人口将在2100年下降至86.70亿。