Achieving the Paris Agreement’s global temperature goal of keeping warming well below 2 °C and ideally 1.5 °C requires limiting fossil fuel production. In the United Nations climate change negotiations, this need is only beginning to be acknowledged. Nevertheless, as some countries have already adopted supply-side climate policies, initial cooperative activities have started, and calls grow for a fossil fuel treaty, questions arise about the prospects and possible effects of international cooperation on limiting fossil fuel supply. Combining qualitative insights on possible participants in a supply-side coalition with a quantitative analysis based on integrated assessment general equilibrium modelling, this article addresses these questions. Through k-means clustering based on fossil reserves per capita, fossil fuel rents and existing supply-side policies, we first identify which (groups of) countries are most likely to lead the formation of an international supply-side coalition, and which (groups of) countries are likely to follow. Drawing on these insights, we develop several scenarios for the evolution of international supply-side coalitions and compare these to a business-as-usual scenario. By doing so, we demonstrate the global and regional environmental, trade and macroeconomic effects of international cooperation on limiting fossil fuel supply and combining fossil supply restrictions with carbon pricing to meet the Paris goals. Our findings underscore the importance of pursuing supply-side and ambitious demand-side climate policies in parallel, and identify the scope and coverage, size of the coalition, and incentives for participation as key design elements for an international supply-side coalition.

要实现《巴黎协定》中将全球升温控制在 2°C 以下（理想情况下为 1.5°C）的目标，就需要限制化石燃料的生产。在联合国气候变化谈判中，这一需求才刚刚开始得到承认。然而，由于一些国家已经采取了供给侧气候政策，初步合作活动已经启动，化石燃料条约的呼声日益高涨，人们对限制化石燃料供应的国际合作的前景和可能产生的影响产生了疑问。本文将供应方联盟中可能的参与者的定性见解与基于综合评估一般均衡模型的定量分析相结合，解决了这些问题。通过基于人均化石储量、化石燃料租金和现有供给方政策的k均值聚类，我们首先确定哪些（群体）国家最有可能领导国际供给方联盟的形成，以及哪些（群体） of）国家可能会效仿。根据这些见解，我们为国际供应方联盟的演变制定了几种情景，并将其与一切照旧的情景进行比较。通过这样做，我们展示了限制化石燃料供应以及将化石供应限制与碳定价相结合以实现巴黎目标的国际合作对全球和区域环境、贸易和宏观经济的影响。我们的研究结果强调了并行推行供应方和雄心勃勃的需求方气候政策的重要性，并将联盟的范围和覆盖范围、规模以及参与激励确定为国际供应方联盟的关键设计要素。