Abstract

Rainfall seasonality in Serbia is examined trough the analysis of several indices: seasonality index (SI), individual seasonality index ( \({SI}_{i})\) , and replicability index (RI). Based on data from 14 synoptic stations that are well distributed over Serbian territory, spatial distribution of general seasonality index \(\overline{SI}\) , mean individual seasonality index \(\overline{{SI }_{ind}}\) , and \(RI\) are analyzed in two subperiods (1961–1990 and 1991–2020). The modified Mann–Kendall test (MMK) and Sen’s slope methods are used to investigate the possible trends and its magnitudes in time series of \({SI}_{i}\) . The values of \(\overline{SI}\) show that precipitation regime in Serbia is very equitable or equitable with definite wetter season. For the entire Serbian territory, the values of RI are low, indicating that the month of maximum rainfall occurs over large spread of months along the studied periods. The existence of significant negative correlation between RI and longitude is found. Results show a highest influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation and East Atlantic/West Russia pattern on rainfall seasonality in Serbia.

中文翻译：

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1961年至2020年塞尔维亚降雨季节变化

摘要

通过分析几个指数来检查塞尔维亚的降雨季节性：季节性指数（SI）、个体季节性指数（\({SI}_{i})\）和可复制性指数（RI）。基于分布在塞尔维亚领土上的 14 个天气站的数据，一般季节性指数\(\overline{SI}\)、平均个体季节性指数\(\overline{{SI }_{ind}}\)的空间分布和\(RI\)在两个子时期（1961-1990 和 1991-2020）进行分析。改进的曼-肯德尔检验（MMK）和森斜率方法用于研究时间序列\({SI}_{i}\)中可能的趋势及其大小。\(\overline{SI}\)的值表明塞尔维亚的降水状况非常公平或公平，有明确的湿润季节。对于整个塞尔维亚领土， RI值较低，表明最大降雨月出现在研究期间的大部分月份中。发现RI与经度之间存在显着的负相关关系。结果显示，北大西洋涛动和东大西洋/西俄罗斯模式对塞尔维亚降雨季节性的影响最大。