Order backlog is an important non-GAAP metric that is a leading indicator of future earnings. We explore how various fundamental analysis metrics interacted with order backlog impacts future earnings. This study examines whether future earnings predicted by order backlog is contingent on other fundamental analysis metrics, such as a sales decrease, the cash conversion cycle, asset growth, and the ratio of order backlog to sales. We find that order backlog is an even more informative leading indicator of future earnings when sales decrease, the cash conversion cycle is longer, and asset growth is higher. In contrast, we find that order backlog in the presence of a higher order backlog to sales ratio predicts lower future earnings. We also find that market participants incorporate the moderating effect of order backlog on sales decreases and the cash conversion cycle, while we do not find the same evidence with asset growth and the backlog to sales ratio. These empirical findings are important for managers who want to effectively communicate the prospects of a firm’s future profitability, and for investors who want to understand the financial fundamentals of firms with an order backlog. Overall, our findings show that the informativeness of order backlog can be conditional on fundamental analysis metrics in certain instances.

订单积压是一项重要的非公认会计原则指标，是未来盈利的领先指标。我们探讨了各种基本面分析指标与订单积压的相互作用如何影响未来的收益。本研究探讨了通过订单积压预测的未来收益是否取决于其他基本分析指标，例如销售额下降、现金转换周期、资产增长以及订单积压与销售额的比率。我们发现，当销售额下降、现金周转周期较长、资产增长较高时，订单积压是未来收益的一个更具信息性的先行指标。相比之下，我们发现，在订单积压与销售比率较高的情况下，订单积压预示着未来收益较低。我们还发现，市场参与者将订单积压对销售下降和现金周转周期的调节作用纳入考虑，但我们没有发现资产增长和积压与销售比率的相同证据。这些实证研究结果对于想要有效传达公司未来盈利前景的管理者以及想要了解有订单积压的公司的财务基本面的投资者来说非常重要。总体而言，我们的研究结果表明，在某些情况下，订单积压的信息量可能取决于基本面分析指标。