Optimal risk stratification of patients with cancer and pulmonary embolism (PE) remains unclear. We constructed a clinical prediction rule (CPR) named ‘MAUPE-C’ to identify patients with low 30 days mortality. The study retrospectively developed and internally validated a CPR for 30 days mortality in a cohort of patients with cancer and PE (both suspected and unsuspected). Candidate variables were chosen based on the EPIPHANY study, which categorized patients into 3 groups based on symptoms, signs, suspicion and patient setting at PE diagnosis. The performance of ‘MAUPE-C’ was compared to RIETE and sPESI scores. Univariate analysis confirmed that the presence of symptoms, signs, suspicion and inpatient diagnosis were associated with 30 days mortality. Multivariable logistic regression analysis led to the exclusion of symptoms as predictive variable. ‘MAUPE-C’ was developed by assigning weights to risk factors related to the β coefficient, yielding a score range of 0 to 4.5. After receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis, a cutoff point was established at ≤ 1. Prognostic accuracy was good with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.77 (95% CI 0.71–0.82), outperforming RIETE and sPESI scores in this cohort (AUC of 0.64 [95% CI 0.57–0.71] and 0.57 [95% CI 0.49–0.65], respectively). Forty-five per cent of patients were classified as low risk and experienced a 2.79% 30 days mortality. MAUPE-C has good prognostic accuracy in identifying patients at low risk of 30 days mortality. This CPR could help physicians select patients for early discharge.

癌症和肺栓塞 (PE) 患者的最佳风险分层仍不清楚。我们构建了名为“MAUPE-C”的临床预测规则 (CPR)，以识别 30 天死亡率较低的患者。该研究回顾性地开发并内部验证了针对一组患有癌症和肺栓塞（疑似和未疑似）的患者 30 天死亡率的 CPR。候选变量是根据 EPIPHANY 研究选择的，该研究根据症状、体征、怀疑和 PE 诊断时的患者情况将患者分为 3 组。将“MAUPE-C”的性能与 RIETE 和 sPESI 分数进行比较。单变量分析证实，症状、体征、怀疑和住院诊断的存在与 30 天死亡率相关。多变量逻辑回归分析导致排除症状作为预测变量。“MAUPE-C”是通过为与 β 系数相关的风险因素分配权重而开发的，得分范围为 0 至 4.5。经过受试者工作特征 (ROC) 曲线分析后，将截止点设定为 ≤ 1。预后准确性良好，曲线下面积 (AUC) 为 0.77 (95% CI 0.71–0.82)，优于 RIETE 和 sPESI 评分队列（AUC 分别为 0.64 [95% CI 0.57–0.71] 和 0.57 [95% CI 0.49–0.65]）。45% 的患者被归类为低风险，30 天死亡率为 2.79%。MAUPE-C 在识别 30 天死亡率低风险的患者方面具有良好的预后准确性。这种心肺复苏可以帮助医生选择提前出院的患者。