Abstract

The most important manifestation of aging is an increased risk of death with advancing age, a mortality pattern characterized by empirical regularities known as mortality laws. We highlight three significant ones: the Gompertz law, compensation effect of mortality (CEM), and late-life mortality deceleration and describe new developments in this area. It is predicted that CEM should result in declining relative variability of mortality at older ages. The quiescent phase hypothesis of negligible actuarial aging at younger adult ages is tested and refuted by analyzing mortality of the most recent birth cohorts. To comprehend the aging mechanisms, it is crucial to explain the observed empirical mortality patterns. As an illustrative example of data-directed modeling and the insights it provides, we briefly describe two different reliability models applied to human mortality patterns. The explanation of aging using a reliability theory approach aligns with evolutionary theories of aging, including idea of chronic phenoptosis. This alignment stems from their focus on elucidating the process of organismal deterioration itself, rather than addressing the reasons why organisms are not designed for perpetual existence. This article is a part of a special issue of the journal that commemorates the legacy of the eminent Russian scientist Vladimir Petrovich Skulachev (1935-2023) and his bold ideas about evolution of biological aging and phenoptosis.

中文翻译：

---

探索人类死亡率和衰老的模式：可靠性理论的观点

摘要

衰老最重要的表现是死亡风险随着年龄的增长而增加，这种死亡模式以称为死亡定律的经验规律为特征。我们重点介绍三个重要的因素：冈珀茨定律、死亡率补偿效应 (CEM) 和晚年死亡率下降，并描述该领域的新发展。据预测，CEM 将导致老年人死亡率的相对变异性下降。通过分析最近出生队列的死亡率，检验并驳斥了年轻成年人的精算衰老可忽略不计的静止期假说。为了理解衰老机制，解释观察到的经验死亡率模式至关重要。作为数据导向建模及其提供的见解的说明性示例，我们简要描述了应用于人类死亡率模式的两种不同的可靠性模型。使用可靠性理论方法对衰老的解释与衰老的进化理论一致，包括慢性表型死亡的想法。这种一致性源于他们专注于阐明有机体退化过程本身，而不是解决有机体并非为永久存在而设计的原因。本文是该杂志特刊的一部分，旨在纪念俄罗斯著名科学家弗拉基米尔·彼得罗维奇·斯库拉切夫（Vladimir Petrovich Skulachev，1935-2023）的遗产以及他关于生物衰老和表型凋亡进化的大胆想法。