Spatial climate analogs effectively illustrate how a location’s climate may become more similar to that of other locations from the historical period to future projections. Also, novel climates (emerging climate conditions significantly different from the past) have been analyzed as they may result in significant and unprecedented ecological and socioeconomic impacts. This study analyzes historical to future spatial climate analogs across East Asia and Europe, in the context of climatic impacts on ecology and human health, respectively. Firstly, the results of climate analogs analysis for ecological impacts indicate that major cities in East Asia and Europe have generally experienced novel climates and climate shifts originating from southern/warmer regions from the early 20th century to the current period, primarily attributed to extensive warming. In future projections, individual cities are not expected to experience additional significant climate change under a 1.5 °C global warming (warming relative to pre-industrial period), compared to the contemporary climate. In contrast, robust local climate change and climate shifts from southern/warmer regions are expected at 2.0 °C and 3.0 °C global warming levels. Specially, under the 3.0 °C global warming, unprecedented (newly emerging) climate analogs are expected to appear in a few major cities. The climate analog of future projections partially align with growing season length projections, demonstrating important implications on ecosystems. Human health-relevant climate analogs exhibit qualitatively similar results from the historical period to future projections, suggesting an increasing risk of climate-driven impacts on human health. However, distinctions emerge in the specifics of the climate analogs analysis results concerning ecology and human health, emphasizing the importance of considering appropriate climate variables corresponding to the impacts of climate change. Our results of climate analogs present extensive information of climate change signals and spatiotemporal trajectories, which provide important indicators for developing appropriate adaptaion plans as the planet warms.

中文翻译：

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基于空间气候类比了解东亚和欧洲的气候变化

空间气候类比有效地说明了从历史时期到未来预测，一个地点的气候如何变得与其他地点的气候更加相似。此外，还对新气候（与过去显着不同的新气候条件）进行了分析，因为它们可能会产生重大且前所未有的生态和社会经济影响。这项研究分别在气候对生态和人类健康影响的背景下，分析了东亚和欧洲历史与未来的空间气候相似性。首先，生态影响的气候类比分析结果表明，从20世纪初至今，东亚和欧洲的主要城市普遍经历了源自南方/温暖地区的新气候和气候变化，主要归因于广泛的变暖。在未来的预测中，与当代气候相比，在全球变暖 1.5°C（相对于前工业化时期的变暖）的情况下，个别城市预计不会经历额外的显着气候变化。相比之下，强劲的局部气候变化和来自南部/温暖地区的气候变化预计导致全球变暖水平分别为 2.0 °C 和 3.0 °C。特别是，在全球变暖3.0℃的背景下，预计在少数主要城市将出现前所未有的（新出现的）气候类似现象。未来预测的气候模拟部分与生长季节长度预测一致，表明对生态系统的重要影响。与人类健康相关的气候类似物从历史时期到未来的预测显示出质量相似的结果，表明气候驱动对人类健康影响的风险越来越大。然而，在有关生态和人类健康的气候类比分析结果的具体细节上出现了差异，强调了考虑与气候变化影响相对应的适当气候变量的重要性。我们的气候类比结果提供了气候变化信号和时空轨迹的广泛信息，为随着地球变暖制定适当的适应计划提供了重要指标。