We tested how 5 simple variables, routinely collected in primary care (i.e., the 3 AUDIT-C items, age, and sex), could constitute a clinician-friendly risk calculator tool of the 3-year risk of several alcohol-related adverse outcomes (i.e., alcohol use disorder, withdrawal symptoms, occurrence of tremors or seizures, and alcohol related interpersonal relationship problems, legal problems, and psychological problems) among non-alcohol-dependent individuals consuming alcohol. Data were drawn from a nationally representative sample of US adults, the National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions (wave 1, 2001–2002; wave 2, 2004–2005). We used scaled and rounded composite scoring systems to combine information derived from these predictors and quantify the risks for each subject. Analyses were limited to 16,710 respondents without a lifetime history of alcohol use disorder who completed both interviews and had consumed alcohol during the year prior to wave 1 (development sample N = 8355, validation sample N = 8355). The risk equations calibrated well (Hosmer and Lemeshow test p values ≥ 0.072) and showed good predictive values (C indices ranging from 0.727 to 0.872) in the validation sample. This risk calculator can be clinically useful in primary care for identification of at-risk individuals, encourage respondents to reduce their drinking, and improve prevention.

我们测试了在初级保健中常规收集的 5 个简单变量（即 3 个 AUDIT-C 项目、年龄和性别）如何构成临床医生友好的风险计算器工具，用于计算几种酒精相关不良后果的 3 年风险（即酒精使用障碍、戒断症状、震颤或癫痫发作以及与酒精相关的人际关系问题、法律问题和心理问题）发生在非酒精依赖者饮酒者中。数据取自具有全国代表性的美国成年人样本，即全国酒精及相关疾病流行病学调查（第 1 波，2001-2002 年；第 2 波，2004-2005 年）。我们使用缩放和舍入的综合评分系统来结合从这些预测变量中获得的信息，并量化每个受试者的风险。分析仅限于 16,710 名没有终生酒精使用障碍史的受访者，他们完成了两次访谈并在第一波之前的一年内饮酒过（开发样本N  = 8355，验证样本N  = 8355）。风险方程校准良好（Hosmer 和 Lemeshow 检验p值 ≥ 0.072），并在验证样本中显示出良好的预测值（C指数范围为 0.727 至 0.872）。该风险计算器在临床上可用于初级保健，以识别高危个体，鼓励受访者减少饮酒并改善预防。