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Quantifying the related precipitation and moisture sources in the lifecycle of subtropical cyclones in the South Atlantic basin Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. (IF 8.9) Pub Date : 2024-04-22 Albenis Pérez‐Alarcón, Patricia Coll‐Hidalgo, José C. Fernández‐Alvarez, Rogert Sorí, Rosmeri Porfírio da Rocha, Michelle Simões Reboita, Raquel Nieto, Luis Gimeno
This study applies a Lagrangian approach to identify the origin of moisture for subtropical cyclones (SCs) along their tracks in the South Atlantic Ocean (SAO) basin from 1980 to 2015. The analysis shows that the local evaporation cannot fully explain the moisture gained by SCs, highlighting the role of external sources in moisture support, mainly through the northeasterly winds associated with the
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A case study analysis of the impact of a new free tropospheric turbulence scheme on the dispersion of an atmospheric tracer Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. (IF 8.9) Pub Date : 2024-04-17 Andrew K. Mirza, Helen F. Dacre, Chun Hay Brian Lo
Most Lagrangian dispersion models represent free tropospheric turbulence as a homogeneous steady‐state process. However, intermittent turbulent mixing in the free troposphere may be a significant source of mixing. We test a new parametrization scheme that represents spatial‐ and temporal‐varying turbulence in the free troposphere in the Met Office's Numerical Atmospheric‐dispersion Modelling Environment
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Long‐term assessment of ERA5 reanalysis rainfall for lightning events over India observed by Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission Lightning Imaging Sensor Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. (IF 8.9) Pub Date : 2024-04-16 Prashant Kumar, Shailendra S. Srivastava, Nirav Jivani, Atul K. Varma, Chie Yokoyama, Takuji Kubota
The ability of numerical weather prediction models to accurately predict extreme weather events, such as thunderstorms marked by heavy rainfall and lightning activities, has consistently been of great importance for human life. The objective of this study is to assess the long‐term reliability of the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis version 5 (ERA5) rainfall in comparison
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Comparison of selected surface level ERA5 variables against in‐situ observations in the continental Arctic Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. (IF 8.9) Pub Date : 2024-04-16 Jakob Boyd Pernov, Jules Gros‐Daillon, Julia Schmale
In this study, data from 17 ground‐based, continental Arctic observatories are used to evaluate the performance of the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis version 5 (ERA5) reanalysis model. Three aspects are evaluated: (i) the overall reproducibility of variables at all stations for all seasons at one‐hour time resolution; (ii) the seasonal performance; and (iii) performance
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Role of Bay of Bengal low‐pressure systems in the formation of mid‐tropospheric cyclones over the Arabian Sea and western India Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. (IF 8.9) Pub Date : 2024-04-15 Pradeep Kushwaha, Jai Sukhatme, Ravi S Nanjundiah
Arabian Sea mid‐tropospheric cyclones (MTCs), responsible for extreme rainfall events in Western India, often coincide with monsoon low‐pressure systems (LPSs) over the Bay of Bengal. However, the influence of Bay of Bengal LPSs on the formation of Arabian Sea MTCs remains unclear. This study utilizes the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to investigate the atmospheric connection between
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The meteorology of the 2019 North Queensland floods Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. (IF 8.9) Pub Date : 2024-04-15 Corey M. Robinson, Michael A. Barnes, Sugata Narsey, Michael J. Reeder
In January–February 2019, a monsoon low developed over northeastern Australia and brought extreme flooding to much of tropical Queensland. The European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts reanalyses are used to explain the formation and severity of the event. Strong anticyclonic Rossby wave breaking to the southeast of Australia produced weak steering winds over northern Australia, and consequently
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Dynamics of extreme wind events in the marine and terrestrial sectors of coastal Antarctica Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. (IF 8.9) Pub Date : 2024-04-12 Thomas Caton Harrison, John C. King, Thomas J. Bracegirdle, Hua Lu
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The role of storm‐track dynamics in the intraseasonal variability of the winter ENSO teleconnection to the North Atlantic Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. (IF 8.9) Pub Date : 2024-04-10 Christopher H. O'Reilly, Marie Drouard, Blanca Ayarzagüena, Maarten H. P. Ambaum, John Methven
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Local identification of equatorial Kelvin waves in real‐time operational forecasts Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. (IF 8.9) Pub Date : 2024-04-08 João B. Cruz, José M. Castanheira, Carlos C. DaCamara
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Direct assimilation of radar reflectivity using an ensemble 3DEnVar approach to improve analysis and forecasting of tornadic supercells over eastern China Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. (IF 8.9) Pub Date : 2024-04-08 Shibo Gao, Jiahui Chen, Chao Yu, Haichuan Hu, Yuxin Wu
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Dynamical study of three African Easterly Waves in September 2021 Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. (IF 8.9) Pub Date : 2024-04-03 Tanguy Jonville, Cyrille Flamant, Christophe Lavaysse
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Comments on ‘Theoretical aspects of the size distribution of fog particles’ Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. (IF 8.9) Pub Date : 2024-04-03 Mingliang Xie
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Consistent, conservative, and efficient advection updatesfor iterative‐implicit atmospheric solvers Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. (IF 8.9) Pub Date : 2024-04-02 John Thuburn
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Lead‐time‐continuous statistical postprocessing of ensemble weather forecasts Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. (IF 8.9) Pub Date : 2024-04-01 Jakob Benjamin Wessel, Christopher A. T. Ferro, Frank Kwasniok
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A moist‐thermal quasi‐geostrophic model for monsoon depressions Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. (IF 8.9) Pub Date : 2024-04-01 A. K. Chaudhri, M. P. Byrne, R. K. Scott
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Generalized eddy‐diffusivity mass‐flux formulation for the parametrization of atmospheric convection and turbulence Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. (IF 8.9) Pub Date : 2024-04-01 Cristian V. Vraciu
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Observed patterns of surface solar irradiance under cloudy and clear‐sky conditions Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. (IF 8.9) Pub Date : 2024-03-30 Wouter Mol, Bert Heusinkveld, Mary Rose Mangan, Oscar Hartogensis, Menno Veerman, Chiel van Heerwaarden
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Influence of the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation on tropical convection and its teleconnection to the midlatitudes in boreal winter Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. (IF 8.9) Pub Date : 2024-03-30 Martin B. Andrews, Jeff R. Knight, Adam A. Scaife, Wolfgang Wicker
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Orographic gravity‐wave drag over multiple bell‐shaped mountains Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. (IF 8.9) Pub Date : 2024-03-29 Ui‐Jin Kwon, Sungsu Park
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Flow‐ and scale‐dependent spatial predictability of convective precipitation combining different model uncertainty representations Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. (IF 8.9) Pub Date : 2024-03-29 Takumi Matsunobu, Matjaž Puh, Christian Keil
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An analysis of fog and low stratus life‐cycle regimes over central Europe Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. (IF 8.9) Pub Date : 2024-03-27 Eva Pauli, Jan Cermak, Hendrik Andersen, Julia Fuchs
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Online state and time‐varying parameter estimation using the implicit equal‐weights particle filter Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. (IF 8.9) Pub Date : 2024-03-26 Mineto Satoh, Peter Jan van Leeuwen, Shin'ya Nakano
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The graft‐versus‐host problem for data‐driven gravity‐wave parameterizations in a one‐dimensional quasibiennial oscillation model Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. (IF 8.9) Pub Date : 2024-03-26 Ofer Shamir, David S. Connelly, Steven C. Hardiman, Zihan Shao, L. Minah Yang, Edwin P. Gerber
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All‐sky assimilation of FY‐4A AGRI water vapor channels: An observing system experiment study for south Asian monsoon prediction Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. (IF 8.9) Pub Date : 2024-03-26 Zeyi Niu, Fei Tang, Liwen Wang
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Numerical prediction of fog: A novel parameterization for droplet formation Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. (IF 8.9) Pub Date : 2024-03-25 András Peterka, Gregory Thompson, István Geresdi
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A non-parametric way to estimate observation errors based on ensemble innovations Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. (IF 8.9) Pub Date : 2024-03-20 Chih-Chi Hu, Peter Jan van Leeuwen, Alan J. Geer
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Dynamical Gaussian, lognormal, and reverse lognormal maximum‐likelihood ensemble filter Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. (IF 8.9) Pub Date : 2024-03-20 Senne Van Loon, Steven J. Fletcher, Milija Zupanski
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Non‐turbulent motion identified from properties of transport and its influence on the calculation of turbulent flux Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. (IF 8.9) Pub Date : 2024-03-19 Zihan Liu, Hongsheng Zhang, Wei Wei, Xuhui Cai, Yu Song, Xiaoye Zhang
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The impact of aerosols and model grid spacing on a supercell storm from Swabian MOSES 2021 Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. (IF 8.9) Pub Date : 2024-03-18 Christian Barthlott, Beata Czajka, Michael Kunz, Harald Saathoff, Hengheng Zhang, Alexander Böhmländer, Philipp Gasch, Jan Handwerker, Martin Kohler, Jannik Wilhelm, Andreas Wieser, Corinna Hoose
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Indirect effects of latent heat of condensation on the simulation of the 2021 catastrophic Henan rainfall event in central China Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. (IF 8.9) Pub Date : 2024-03-16 Hongxiong Xu, Dajun Zhao, Wenhua Gao, Yihong Duan, Jinfang Yin, Ying Li, Lingli Zhou
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An incremental analysis update in the framework of the four‐dimensional variational data assimilation: Description and preliminary tests in the operational China Meteorological Administration Global Forecast System Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. (IF 8.9) Pub Date : 2024-03-15 Liwen Wang, Yongzhu Liu, Daosheng Xu, Lin Zhang, Jeremy Cheuk‐Hin Leung, Haorui Li, Jiandong Gong, Banglin Zhang
Initialization and the spin‐up effect are critical to model performance in the four‐dimensional variational data assimilation (4DVar) system. The incremental analysis update (IAU) technique is able to combat these problems. This study introduces the IAU technique into the 4DVar framework (IAU‐4DVar) of the operational China Meteorological Administration Global Forecast System (CMA‐GFS) and evaluates
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Utility of thermal remote sensing for evaluationof a high‐resolution weather model in a city Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. (IF 8.9) Pub Date : 2024-03-12 Thomas W. Hall, Lewis Blunn, Sue Grimmond, Niall McCarroll, Christopher J. Merchant, William Morrison, Jonathan K. P. Shonk, Humphrey Lean, Martin Best
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Implementation and evaluation of a spectral cumulus parametrization for simulating tropical cyclones in JMA‐GSM Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. (IF 8.9) Pub Date : 2024-03-12 Yuya Baba, Masashi Ujiie, Yukinari Ota, Hitoshi Yonehara
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Sources of MJO teleconnection errors in the ECMWF extended‐range forecasts Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. (IF 8.9) Pub Date : 2024-03-07 Frédéric Vitart, Magdalena A. Balmaseda
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A quadratic conservation algorithm for non‐hydrostatic models Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. (IF 8.9) Pub Date : 2024-03-06 Shifeng Hao, Xiaopeng Cui
We propose a quadratic conservation algorithm for non‐hydrostatic models, focusing on energy conservation and consistency. To ensure that the discrete potential and continuity equations are equivalent and to achieve conservation of mass and momentum transport, we introduce a potential reference height into the discrete potential equation. The time integration scheme is based on an explicit fourth‐order
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Impact of Saharan dust outbreaks on short‐range weather forecast errors in Europe Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. (IF 8.9) Pub Date : 2024-03-06 Kilian Hermes, Julian Quinting, Christian M. Grams, Corinna Hoose, Gholam Ali Hoshyaripour
Mineral dust, the most abundant atmospheric aerosol by mass, interacts with radiation directly and alters cloud properties indirectly. Many operational numerical weather prediction models account for aerosol direct effects by using climatological mean concentrations and neglect indirect effects. This simplification may lead to shortcomings in model forecasts during outbreaks of Saharan dust towards
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Precipitable water vapor from Sentinel‐1 improves the forecast of extratropical storm Barbara Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. (IF 8.9) Pub Date : 2024-03-06 Pedro Mateus, Giovanni Nico, João Catalão, Pedro M. A. Miranda
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A comparison of two statistical postprocessing methods for heavy‐precipitation forecasts over India during the summer monsoon Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. (IF 8.9) Pub Date : 2024-03-06 Michael Angus, Martin Widmann, Andrew Orr, Raghavendra Ashrit, Gregor C. Leckebusch, Ashis Mitra
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Comparing the atmospheric and ocean characteristics associated with two distinctly intensified pre‐monsoon tropical cyclones over the Bay of Bengal Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. (IF 8.9) Pub Date : 2024-02-29 Debashis Paul, Jagabandhu Panda, Ankan Sarkar, Subodh Kumar, Yi‐Jie Zhu, Jennifer Collins
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Impact of the Madden–Julian oscillation and equatorial waves on tracked mesoscale convective systems over southeast Asia Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. (IF 8.9) Pub Date : 2024-02-27 Julia Crook, Fran Morris, Rory Gordon John Fitzpatrick, Simon C. Peatman, Juliane Schwendike, Thorwald H. Stein, Cathryn E. Birch, Sam Hardy, Gui‐Ying Yang
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The moist halo region around shallow cumulus clouds in large eddy simulations Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. (IF 8.9) Pub Date : 2024-02-27 Jian‐Feng Gu, Robert Stephen Plant, Christopher E. Holloway, Peter A. Clark
In this study, the moist buffering halo region of shallow maritime cumulus clouds is systematically investigated using large eddy simulations with various grid resolutions and numerical choices. Autocorrelation analyses of cloud liquid water and relative humidity suggest a converged size of 200–300 m for moist patches outside clouds when the model resolution is below 50 m, but may overestimate this
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Analyzing future marine cold spells in the tropical Indian Ocean: Insights from a regional Earth system model Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. (IF 8.9) Pub Date : 2024-02-27 Anand Singh Dinesh, Pankaj Kumar, Alok Kumar Mishra, Lokesh Kumar Pandey, Mukul Tewari, William Cabos, Dmitry V. Sein
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Inclusion of the radiative effect of deep convective clouds in the Eta model simulations Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. (IF 8.9) Pub Date : 2024-02-26 Diêgo de Andrade Campos, Sin Chan Chou, Marcus Jorge Bottino, Jorge Luís Gomes, André Lyra
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On the indices of the normal modes of Laplace's tidal equations for zonal wavenumber zero Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. (IF 8.9) Pub Date : 2024-02-26 José M. Castanheira
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Evaluating atmospheric electricity changes as an indicator of fog formation Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. (IF 8.9) Pub Date : 2024-02-20 Caleb Miller, Keri A. Nicoll, Chris Westbrook, R. Giles Harrison
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The vortex structure and near-surface winds of Typhoon Faxai (2019) during landfall. Part II: Evaluation of WRF simulations Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. (IF 8.9) Pub Date : 2024-02-20 Takuya Takahashi, David S. Nolan, Brian D. McNoldy
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Dynamics of diabatically forced anticyclonic plumes in the stratosphere Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. (IF 8.9) Pub Date : 2024-02-20 Aurélien Podglajen, Bernard Legras, Guillaume Lapeyre, Riwal Plougonven, Vladimir Zeitlin, Vincent Brémaud, Pasquale Sellitto
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Update to aircraft observations and reanalysis depictions of trends in the North Atlantic winter jet stream wind speeds and turbulence Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. (IF 8.9) Pub Date : 2024-02-20 Joel Tenenbaum, Paul D. Williams
Three more Northern Hemisphere winters (2021–2023) of European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis v5 (ERA5) data and the North Atlantic Oscillation series have become available. These winters can be used to extend the 2002–2020 wind-speed time series in our article (Tenenbaum et al., 2022; figs 2 and 4). When we add these new years to the previous results, the statistical significance
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Introducing large‐scale analysis constraints in regional hybrid EnVar data assimilation for the prediction of triple typhoons Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. (IF 8.9) Pub Date : 2024-02-19 Yuanbing Wang, Xinyao Qian, Yaodeng Chen, Jinzhong Min
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Unusual subseasonal variability of Indian summer monsoon rainfall in 2020 Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. (IF 8.9) Pub Date : 2024-02-19 Patekar Darshana, Jasti S. Chowdary, Anant Parekh, C. Gnanaseelan, T. S. Fousiya, Amol Vibhute, Subrota Halder, Prem Singh, Rashmi Kakatkar
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Decomposing the role of dry intrusions for ocean evaporation during mistral Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. (IF 8.9) Pub Date : 2024-02-19 Yonatan Givon, Douglas Keller, Romain Pennel, Philippe Drobinski, Shira Raveh‐Rubin
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Misalignment between the propagation direction of the bora wind and its pulsations Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. (IF 8.9) Pub Date : 2024-02-18 Petar Golem, Željko Večenaj, Hrvoje Kozmar, Branko Grisogono
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Underlying physical mechanisms of winter precipitation extremes over India's high mountain region Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. (IF 8.9) Pub Date : 2024-02-14 Nischal, Raju Attada, Kieran M. R. Hunt, Mathew Barlow
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Enhanced prediction of premonsoon thunderstorms over eastern India through assimilation of INSAT-3D sounding data Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. (IF 8.9) Pub Date : 2024-02-12 Kumari Priya, Talukdar Sasanka, Krishna K. Osuri
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Developing a statistical approach of evaluating daily maximum and minimum temperature observations from third-party automatic weather stations in Australia Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. (IF 8.9) Pub Date : 2024-02-12 Ming Li, Quanxi Shao, Joel Janek Dabrowski, Ashfaqur Rahman, Andrea Powell, Brent Henderson, Zachary Hussain, Peter Steinle
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Relative economic value of global ensemble prediction system of NCMRWF, India, for extreme weather events Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. (IF 8.9) Pub Date : 2024-02-11 Gauri Shanker, Abhijit Sarkar, Ashu Mamgain, R. Bhatla, V. S. Prasad
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Phase dependence of growth mechanisms in the daily energetics of the North Atlantic Oscillation Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. (IF 8.9) Pub Date : 2024-02-08 Minju Kim, Mi-Kyung Sung, Changhyun Yoo
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A survey of westward-propagating mixed Rossby–Gravity waves and quantification of their association with extratropical disturbances Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. (IF 8.9) Pub Date : 2024-02-08 K. Shreya, E. Suhas
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Effect of increased ocean resolution on model errors in El Niño–Southern Oscillation and its teleconnections Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. (IF 8.9) Pub Date : 2024-02-07 Ned C. Williams, Adam A. Scaife, James A. Screen