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Drought Propagation and Recovery Behaviors Across 407 Australian Catchments Earths Future (IF 8.852) Pub Date : 2024-04-17 Santosh K. Aryal, Hongxing Zheng, Yongqiang Zhang, M. A. Faiz
A reliable understanding of linkages between meteorological, hydrological and agricultural droughts (MD, HD, and AD respectively) is crucial to building resilience and planning for future climate changes. Despite Australia being prone to severe droughts, lagtimes of propagation (and recovery), from meteorological to hydrological and agricultural droughts across its large hydroclimatic regions, are
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Global Lake Health in the Anthropocene: Societal Implications and Treatment Strategies Earths Future (IF 8.852) Pub Date : 2024-04-17 Gesa A. Weyhenmeyer, Azubuike V. Chukwuka, Orlane Anneville, Justin Brookes, Carolinne R. Carvalho, James B. Cotner, Hans-Peter Grossart, David P. Hamilton, Paul C. Hanson, Josef Hejzlar, Sabine Hilt, Matthew R. Hipsey, Bas W. Ibelings, Stéphan Jacquet, Külli Kangur, Theis Kragh, Bernhard Lehner, Fabio Lepori, Ben Lukubye, Rafael Marce, Yvonne McElarney, Ma. Cristina Paule-Mercado, Rebecca North, Keilor
The world's 1.4 million lakes (≥10 ha) provide many ecosystem services that are essential for human well-being; however, only if their health status is good. Here, we reviewed common lake health issues and classified them using a simple human health-based approach to outline that lakes are living systems that are in need of oxygen, clean water and a balanced energy and nutrient supply. The main reason
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Projecting Global Mercury Emissions and Deposition Under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways Earths Future (IF 8.852) Pub Date : 2024-04-15 Benjamin M. Geyman, David G. Streets, Colin P. Thackray, Christine L. Olson, Kevin Schaefer, Elsie M. Sunderland
Mercury (Hg) is a naturally occurring element that has been greatly enriched in the environment by human activities like mining and fossil fuel combustion. Despite commonalities in some carbon dioxide (CO2) and Hg emission sources, the implications of long-range climate scenarios for anthropogenic Hg emissions have yet to be explored. Here, we present comprehensive projections of anthropogenic Hg emissions
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Evolution Modeling and Protection Scheme for Tidal Flats Under Natural Change and Human Pressure, Central Jiangsu Coast Earths Future (IF 8.852) Pub Date : 2024-04-15 Shibing Zhu, Shu Gao, Mingliang Li, Ya Ping Wang
Amidst escalating global changes and heightened human activities, tidal flats worldwide are facing a transition from accretion to erosion. In order to quantify the growth pattern of tidal flats and its response to changes in multiple external driving factors, here we established a geometric model, in combination with field surveys, to study the historical behavior (1127–1990) and future trends (2100)
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Burn Severity and Post-Fire Weather Are Key to Predicting Time-To-Recover From Australian Forest Fires Earths Future (IF 8.852) Pub Date : 2024-04-20 Sami W. Rifai, Martin G. De Kauwe, Rachael V. Gallagher, Lucas A. Cernusak, Patrick Meir, Andy J. Pitman
Climate change has accelerated the frequency of catastrophic wildfires; however, the drivers that control the time-to-recover of forests are poorly understood. We integrated remotely sensed data, climate records, and landscape features to identify the causes of variability in the time-to-recover of canopy leaf area in southeast Australian eucalypt forests. Approximately 97% of all observed burns between
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Assessment of the Global Relationship of Different Types of Droughts in Model Simulations Under High Anthropogenic Emissions Earths Future (IF 8.852) Pub Date : 2024-04-20 Luis Gimeno-Sotelo, Ahmed El Kenawy, Magí Franquesa, Iván Noguera, Beatriz Fernández-Duque, Fernando Domínguez-Castro, Dhais Peña-Angulo, Fergus Reig, Rogert Sorí, Luis Gimeno, Raquel Nieto, Sergio M. Vicente-Serrano
This study provides a global analysis of the relationship between drought metrics obtained from several climatic, hydrologic and ecological variables in a climate change framework using CMIP6 model data. A comprehensive analysis of the evolution of drought severity on a global scale is carried out for the historical experiment (1850–2014) and for future simulations under a high emissions scenario (SSP5-8
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Dryland Watersheds in Flux: How Nitrogen Deposition and Changing Precipitation Regimes Shape Nitrogen Export Earths Future (IF 8.852) Pub Date : 2024-04-18 Jianning Ren, Erin J. Hanan, Paolo D'Odorico, Christina Tague, Joshua P. Schimel, Peter M. Homyak
Atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition and climate change are transforming the way N moves through dryland watersheds. For example, N deposition is increasing N export to streams, which may be exacerbated by changes in the magnitude, timing, and intensity of precipitation (i.e., the precipitation regime). While deposition can control the amount of N entering a watershed, the precipitation regime influences
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Assessing Global and Regional Trends in Spatially Co-Occurring Hot or Wet Annual Maxima Under Climate Change Earths Future (IF 8.852) Pub Date : 2024-04-15 B. Biess, L. Gudmundsson, S. I. Seneviratne
Recent years were characterized by spatially co-occurring hot and wet extremes around the globe, raising questions about the contribution of human-induced global warming to the changing likelihoods of such extreme years. To characterize spatially co-occurring extremes we investigate recent trends in global and regional land area that is concurrently affected by hot or wet annual maxima taking observational
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Non-Linear Climate Change Impacts on Crop Yields May Mislead Stakeholders Earths Future (IF 8.852) Pub Date : 2024-04-12 Alex C. Ruane, Meridel Phillips, Jonas Jägermeyr, Christoph Müller
We utilize a global warming level (GWL) lens to evaluate global and regional patterns of agricultural impacts as global surface temperature increases, providing a unique perspective on the experience of stakeholders with continued warming in the 21st century. We analyze crop productivity outputs from 11 crop models simulating 5 climate models under 3 emissions scenarios across 4 crops within the AgMIP/ISIMIP
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Predicting Future Trends of Terrestrial Dissolved Organic Carbon Transport to Global River Systems Earths Future (IF 8.852) Pub Date : 2024-04-09 Mahdi (André) Nakhavali, Ronny Lauerwald, Pierre Regnier, Pierre Friedlingstein
A fraction of CO2 uptake by terrestrial ecosystems is exported as organic carbon (C) through the terrestrial-aquatic continuum. This translocated C plays a significant role in the terrestrial C balance; however, obtaining global assessments remains challenging due to the predominant reliance on empirical approaches. Leaching of dissolved organic C (DOC) from soils to rivers represents an important
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Hydrological Projections in the Third Pole Using Artificial Intelligence and an Observation-Constrained Cryosphere-Hydrology Model Earths Future (IF 8.852) Pub Date : 2024-04-10 Junshui Long, Lei Wang, Deliang Chen, Ning Li, Jing Zhou, Xiuping Li, Xiaoyu Guo, Hu Liu, Chenhao Chai, Xinfeng Fan
The water resources of the Third Pole (TP), highly sensitive to climate change and glacier melting, significantly impact the water and food security of millions in Asia. However, projecting future spatial-temporal runoff changes for TP's mountainous basins remains a formidable challenge. Here, we've leveraged the long short-term memory model (LSTM) to craft a grid-scale artificial intelligence (AI)
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Significant Reduction of Unequal Population Exposure to Climate Extremes by Achieving the Carbon Neutrality Earths Future (IF 8.852) Pub Date : 2024-04-09 Seok-Geun Oh, Jung Choi, Min-Jee Kang, Seok-Woo Son, Sujong Jeong, Seung-Ki Min, Sang-Wook Yeh, Yeon-Hee Kim
Climate extremes, such as hot temperature and heavy precipitation events, have devastating effects on human societies. As the planet gets warmer, they have become more intense and more frequent. To avoid irreversible damages from climate extremes, many countries have committed to achieving net-zero anthropogenic carbon emissions, or carbon neutrality, by the 2050s. Here, we quantify the impact of carbon
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Future Changes in Floods, Droughts, and Their Extents in the Alps: A Sensitivity Analysis With a Non-Stationary Stochastic Streamflow Generator Earths Future (IF 8.852) Pub Date : 2024-04-10 Manuela I. Brunner, Eric Gilleland
Spatially compounding droughts and floods challenge water management and may become more severe in a warming climate. However, the influence of climate change on widespread hydrologic extremes remains largely unknown because they are neither well represented in observations nor in models. Here, we present a non-stationary stochastic streamflow generator that captures streamflow dependencies between
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The Future of Developed Barrier Systems: 1. Pathways Toward Uninhabitability, Drowning, and Rebound Earths Future (IF 8.852) Pub Date : 2024-04-09 K. A. Anarde, L. J. Moore, A. B. Murray, I. R. B. Reeves
Many barrier islands and spits (collectively, “barriers”) throughout the world are highly developed. As low-lying, sandy coastal landforms, barrier systems are naturally reshaped by processes associated with storms and sea-level rise (SLR). The resulting landscape changes threaten development, and in response, humans employ defensive measures that physically modify barrier geometry to reduce relatively
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Contributions of Tropical Cyclones and Atmospheric Rivers to Extreme Precipitation Trends Over the Northeast US Earths Future (IF 8.852) Pub Date : 2024-04-08 Bor-Ting Jong, Hiroyuki Murakami, Thomas L. Delworth, William F. Cooke
The Northeast United States (NEUS) has faced the most rapidly increasing occurrences of extreme precipitation within the US in the past few decades. Understanding the physics leading to long-term trends in regional extreme precipitation is essential but the progress is limited partially by the horizontal resolution of climate models. The latest fully coupled 25-km GFDL (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory)
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The Future of Developed Barrier Systems: 2. Alongshore Complexities and Emergent Climate Change Dynamics Earths Future (IF 8.852) Pub Date : 2024-04-09 K. A. Anarde, L. J. Moore, A. B. Murray, I. R. B. Reeves
Developed barrier systems (barrier islands and spits) are lowering and narrowing with sea-level rise (SLR) such that habitation will eventually become infeasible or prohibitively expensive for most communities in its current form. Before reaching this state, choices will be made to modify the natural and built environment to reduce relatively short-term risk. These choices will likely vary substantially
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Stratospheric Aerosol Injection to Stabilize Northern Hemisphere Terrestrial Permafrost Under the ARISE-SAI-1.5 Scenario Earths Future (IF 8.852) Pub Date : 2024-04-06 A. L. Morrison, E. A. Barnes, J. W. Hurrell
Permafrost, or ground that is continuously frozen for at least 2 years, contains vast stores of organic soil carbon. Stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) may prevent tipping points that lead to widespread permafrost thaw and carbon release by cooling surface and soil temperatures, but it is unclear if or when permafrost could stabilize after SAI deployment. Here we use output from the ARISE-SAI-1
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Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Crop Yields and Exploring Adaptation Strategies in Northeast China Earths Future (IF 8.852) Pub Date : 2024-04-06 Qingchen Xu, Hongbin Liang, Zhongwang Wei, Yonggen Zhang, Xingjie Lu, Fang Li, Nan Wei, Shupeng Zhang, Hua Yuan, Shaofeng Liu, Yongjiu Dai
Northeast China (NEC) is the most prominent grain-producing region in China. However, it is currently facing significant impacts from climate change. Since the climate-related impacts on crop yield in this region are a major concern for society in the future, quantifying climate change impacts on crop yields in NEC is essential to ensure future food security. This study aimed to quantify the effects
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Simulated Abrupt Shifts in Aerobic Habitats of Marine Species in the Past, Present, and Future Earths Future (IF 8.852) Pub Date : 2024-04-04 Friederike Fröb, Timothée Bourgeois, Nadine Goris, Jörg Schwinger, Christoph Heinze
The physiological tolerances of marine species toward ambient temperature and oxygen can jointly be evaluated in a single metric: the metabolic index. Changes therein characterize a changing aerobic habitat tailored to species-specific thermal and hypoxia sensitivity traits. If the geographical limits of marine species as indicated by critical thresholds of the metabolic index shift abruptly in response
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Tracking Interprovincial Flows of Atmospheric PAH Emissions Through Downscaling Estimates With Province-Specific Emission Factors Earths Future (IF 8.852) Pub Date : 2024-04-06 Linlin Xia, Jianbing Wang, Ruwei Wang, Sai Liang, Zhifeng Yang
Atmospheric polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), which are emitted significantly by economic sectors, are closely related to the global incidence of human cancer. When assessing temporal changes in PAH emissions in a country that is vast in area, such as China, it is crucial to consider socioeconomic differences across geological regions. In this study, we developed PAH emission factors at the
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Global Projection of Flood Risk With a Bivariate Framework Under 1.5–3.0°C Warming Levels Earths Future (IF 8.852) Pub Date : 2024-04-03 Xi Huang, Jiabo Yin, Louise J. Slater, Shengyu Kang, Shaokun He, Pan Liu
Global warming increases the atmospheric water-holding capacity, consequently altering the frequency, and intensity of extreme hydrological events. River floods characterized by large peak flow or prolonged duration can amplify the risk of social disruption and affect ecosystem stability. However, previous studies have mostly focused on univariate flood magnitude characteristics, such as flood peak
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Maize Cultivation Three Hundred Years Ago Triggered Severe Rocky Desertification in Southwest China Earths Future (IF 8.852) Pub Date : 2024-04-05 Yuemin Yue, Xiudong Hao, Lu Wang, Shuai Yuan, Xuhong Ouyang, Xinbao Zhang, Hongyan Liu, Kelin Wang
Understanding the forest evolution is vital to answering the reforestation potential in karst areas. Here, we present the first-ever pollen record in karst depression sediment, combined with comprehensive dating methods (137Cs, 210Pbex, and 14C) and historical documents, to reveal plant change history in southwest Guangxi, a severe rocky-desertification region. We inferred three stages of “virgin
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Acceleration of Deep Subsurface Fluid Fluxes in the Anthropocene Earths Future (IF 8.852) Pub Date : 2024-04-05 Grant Ferguson, Lydia R. Bailey, Ji-Hyun Kim, Magdalena R. Osburn, Peter W. Reiners, Henrik Drake, Bradley S. Stevenson, Jennifer C. McIntosh
The Anthropocene has been framed around humanity's impact on atmospheric, biologic, and near-surface processes, such as land use and vegetation change, greenhouse gas emissions, and the above-ground hydrologic cycle. Groundwater extraction has lowered water tables in many key aquifers but comparatively little attention has been given to the impacts in the deeper subsurface. Here, we show that fluid
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An Integrated Assessment Approach for Socio-Economic Implications of the Desert Locust in Eastern Africa Earths Future (IF 8.852) Pub Date : 2024-04-02 Bonoukpoè Mawuko Sokame, Komi Mensah Agboka, Emily Kimathi, Bester Tawona Mudereri, Elfatih M. Abdel-Rahman, Tobias Landmann, Mwesigwa Moses Rwaheru, Osman Abdalla, Moses M. Mafabi, Louis Mitondo Lubango, Henri E. Z. Tonnang
Desert locust (Schistocerca gregaria) infestations cause significant damage to crops and pastureland, impeding food security and livelihoods globally. In recent years, some East African countries have suffered severe desert locust outbreaks, causing significant harm to agriculture and local communities. To comprehensively understand and mitigate the socio-economic impacts of this pest, an integrated
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Economic Development Drives Massive Global Estuarine Loss in the Anthropocene Earths Future (IF 8.852) Pub Date : 2024-04-02 Nathalie W. Jung, Guan-hong Lee, Timothy M. Dellapenna, Yoonho Jung, Tae-Chang Jo, Jongwi Chang, Steven M. Figueroa
Estuaries have great ecological and economic value and sustain both population and economic growth. Global-scale analyses suggest that human activities drive estuarine area change but these projections neglect direct human-estuary interactions and socio-economic feedbacks. Here, we quantified area changes of 2,396 estuaries in response to recent human impacts (e.g., land reclamation, estuarine dam
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A National-Scale Coastal Flood Hazard Assessment for the Atoll Nation of Tuvalu Earths Future (IF 8.852) Pub Date : 2024-04-01 Moritz Wandres, Antonio Espejo, Tomasi Sovea, Sapolu Tetoa, Faatasi Malologa, Arthur Webb, James Lewis, Gary Lee, Hervé Damlamian
Atoll nations such as Tuvalu are considered to be amongst those most vulnerable to the effects of climate change. Here we present a national-scale coastal flood hazard assessment for Tuvalu based on high-resolution Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) topography and bathymetry. We follow a fully probabilistic approach, considering sea level anomalies, tides, and extreme wave conditions from a mixed
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A Cost Model for Ocean Iron Fertilization as a Means of Carbon Dioxide Removal That Compares Ship- and Aerial-Based Delivery, and Estimates Verification Costs Earths Future (IF 8.852) Pub Date : 2024-03-29 David Emerson, Laura E. Sofen, Alexander B. Michaud, Stephen D. Archer, Benjamin S. Twining
We present a cost model for implementing a deployment scale effort for conducting ocean iron fertilization (OIF) for marine-based carbon dioxide removal (CDR). The model incorporates basic oceanographic parameters critical for estimating the effective export of newly fixed CO2 into biomass that is stimulated by Fe addition to an Fe-limited region of the Southern Ocean. Estimated costs can vary by nearly
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Beyond “Geological Nature,” Fatalistic Determinism and Pop-Anthropocene: Social, Cultural, and Political Aspects of the Anthropocene Earths Future (IF 8.852) Pub Date : 2024-03-27 Piotr Żuk, Paweł Żuk
The commentary encourages supplementing the geological and natural concept of the Anthropocene with a cultural and political aspect. These two perspectives are not mutually exclusive but are complementary. This approach can facilitate its transition from the language of academic debate to practical and necessary actions at the societal level. According to the authors, the slightly abstract and impersonal
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The Projected Response of the Water Cycle to Global Warming Over Drylands in East Asia Earths Future (IF 8.852) Pub Date : 2024-03-27 Yu Ren, Haipeng Yu, Jianping Huang, Ming Peng, Jie Zhou
Climate change exacerbates the threat of water scarcity over the drylands in East Asia (DEA), the world's most densely populated arid region. The water cycle continuously supplies water to support all life. Previous studies have focused on the change in individual hydrological components over DEA; however, how the projected water cycle changes under climate warming remains unclear. We demonstrate the
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Increasing Trust in Climate Vulnerability Projections Earths Future (IF 8.852) Pub Date : 2024-03-27 James D. Ford
Projecting future trends is emerging as a key focus of community-based climate vulnerability assessments. In these mostly qualitative studies, understanding of current vulnerability processes is used as a basis for identifying who and what are vulnerable to future changes, where, and why, and characterizing the key drivers of vulnerability and how they might change. Few, if any, of these studies engage
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Issue Information Earths Future (IF 8.852) Pub Date : 2024-03-28
No abstract is available for this article.
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Global-Scale Evaluation of Coastal Ocean Alkalinity Enhancement in a Fully Coupled Earth System Model Earths Future (IF 8.852) Pub Date : 2024-03-25 Julien Palmiéri, Andrew Yool
The Paris Agreement plans for “net-zero” carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions during the second half of the 21st century. However, reducing emissions from some sectors is challenging, and “net-zero” permits carbon dioxide removal (CDR) activities. One CDR scheme is ocean alkalinity enhancement (OAE), which proposes dissolving basic minerals into seawater to increase its buffering capacity for CO2. While
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Identifying Climate Impacts From Different Stratospheric Aerosol Injection Strategies in UKESM1 Earths Future (IF 8.852) Pub Date : 2024-03-25 Alice F. Wells, Matthew Henry, Ewa M. Bednarz, Douglas G. MacMartin, Andy Jones, Mohit Dalvi, James M. Haywood
Stratospheric Aerosol Injection (SAI) is a proposed method of climate intervention aiming to reduce the impacts of human-induced global warming by reflecting a portion of incoming solar radiation. Many studies have demonstrated that SAI would successfully reduce global-mean surface air temperatures; however the vast array of model scenarios and strategies result in a diverse range of climate impacts
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Strong Agricultural Resilience to 2022 Southern China Drought Earths Future (IF 8.852) Pub Date : 2024-03-23 Yijing Cao, Yongqiang Zhang, Jing Tian, Xiaojie Li, Zixuan Tang, Xuening Yang, Xuanze Zhang, Ning Ma
Meteorological drought, especially when influenced by human activities, significantly impacts agriculture. We assessed the Yangtze River Basin (YRB)’s crop ecosystem resilience during the 2022 southern China drought. Using the elasticity framework, we quantified crop Leaf Area Index (LAI) changes with meteorological factors and human activities (irrigation) in the YRB. Our study covered maize, wheat
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Ignoring Plant Physiological Responses to Elevated CO2 Will Overestimate Terrestrial Vertebrate Biodiversity Loss Under Global Climate Change Earths Future (IF 8.852) Pub Date : 2024-03-21 Chuanlian Sun, Xiaoming Feng
Rising CO2 is accelerating Earth warming and drying by altering the radiation budget (CO2 radiative effect), and it is commonly thought that future biodiversity will be greatly threatened. However, elevated CO2 also modifies plant physiology including photosynthesis rate and water use efficiency (CO2 physiological effect), the impacts of which have been usually ignored. By coupling machine learning
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Heat and Moisture Anomalies During Crop Failure Events in the Southeastern Australian Wheat Belt Earths Future (IF 8.852) Pub Date : 2024-03-21 Hao Li, Jessica Keune, Qiqi Gou, Chiara M. Holgate, Diego Miralles
Prolonged droughts and heatwaves are common causes of agricultural failure in Australia, yet the origins of these climate anomalies remain understudied. Here, we use a Lagrangian trajectory model driven by atmospheric reanalysis and constrained by satellite data to unravel the sources of precipitation and heat over the Southeastern Australia wheat belt. Furthermore, we assess the impact of local and
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Effective Deep Learning Seasonal Prediction Model for Summer Drought Over China Earths Future (IF 8.852) Pub Date : 2024-03-21 Wenbo Liu, Yanyan Huang, Huijun Wang
Drought is an important meteorological event in China and can cause severe damage to both livelihoods and socio-ecological systems, but current seasonal prediction skill for drought is far from successful. This study used convolutional neural network (CNN) to build an effective seasonal forecast model for the summer consecutive dry days (CDD) over China. The principal components (PC) of the six leading
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Locating Hydrologically Unsustainable Areas for Supporting Ecological Restoration in China's Drylands Earths Future (IF 8.852) Pub Date : 2024-03-20 Fengyu Fu, Shuai Wang, Xutong Wu, Fangli Wei, Peng Chen, José M. Grünzweig
China has undertaken extensive ecological restoration (ER) projects since the late 1970s in drylands, dominating the greening of drylands. The greening, especially ER-induced, can affect regional water availability and even cause hydrological unsustainability (i.e., lead to a negative shift in ecosystem water supply and demand balances). However, there is still limited research on accurately identifying
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Amplified Extreme Floods and Shifting Flood Mechanisms in the Delaware River Basin in Future Climates Earths Future (IF 8.852) Pub Date : 2024-03-19 Ning Sun, Mark S. Wigmosta, Hongxiang Yan, Hisham Eldardiry, Zhaoqing Yang, Mithun Deb, Taiping Wang, David Judi
Historical records in the Delaware River Basin reveal complex and spatially diverse flood generating mechanisms influenced by the region's mountains-to-plains gradients. This study focuses on predicting future flood hazards and understanding the underlying drivers of changes across the region. Using a process-based hydrological model, we analyzed the hydrometeorological condition of each historical
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Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of Aboveground Biomass in China's Oasis Grasslands Between 1989 and 2021 Earths Future (IF 8.852) Pub Date : 2024-03-18 Peng Chen, Shuai Wang, Yanxu Liu, Yijia Wang, Jiaxi Song, Qiang Tang, Ying Yao, Yaping Wang, Xutong Wu, Fangli Wei, Siyuan Feng
Grassland provides multiple ecosystem services and plays a key role in preventing desert encroachment and maintaining oasis stability. In China, the area of cropland in oases has expanded significantly in recent decades, which results in a rapid increase in agricultural water demand and encroachment on grassland subsistence space. However, our knowledge about how the expansion of cropland affects oasis
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Projecting Flood Risk Dynamics for Effective Long-Term Adaptation Earths Future (IF 8.852) Pub Date : 2024-03-13 Lukas Schoppa, Marlies H. Barendrecht, Dominik Paprotny, Nivedita Sairam, Tobias Sieg, Heidi Kreibich
Flood losses have steadily increased in the past and are expected to grow even further owing to climate and socioeconomic change. The reduction of flood vulnerability, for example, through adaptation, plays a key role in the mitigation of future flood risk. However, lacking knowledge about vulnerability dynamics, which arise from the interaction between floods and the ensuing response by society, limits
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Temperature-Dependence Assumptions Drive Projected Responses of Diverse Size-Based Food Webs to Warming Earths Future (IF 8.852) Pub Date : 2024-03-13 J. C. P. Reum, P. Woodworth-Jefcoats, C. Novaglio, R. Forestier, A. Audzijonyte, A. Gårdmark, M. Lindmark, J. L. Blanchard
Food web projections are critical for evaluating potential risks to ecosystems and fisheries under global warming. The temperature dependence of biological processes and regional differences in food web structure are two important sources of uncertainty and variation in climate forced projections of fish communities, but we do not know their magnitude or relative contribution. Here we systematically
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Making Ecosystem Modeling Operational–A Novel Distributed Execution Framework to Systematically Explore Ecological Responses to Divergent Climate Trajectories Earths Future (IF 8.852) Pub Date : 2024-03-07 Jeroen Steenbeek, Pablo Ortega, Raffaele Bernardello, Villy Christensen, Marta Coll, Eleftheria Exarchou, Alba Fuster-Alonso, Ryan Heneghan, Laura Julià Melis, Maria Grazia Pennino, David Rivas, Noel Keenlyside
Marine Ecosystem Models (MEMs) are increasingly driven by Earth System Models (ESMs) to better understand marine ecosystem dynamics, and to analyze the effects of alternative management efforts for marine ecosystems under potential scenarios of climate change. However, policy and commercial activities typically occur on seasonal-to-decadal time scales, a time span widely used in the global climate
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Expanding the Spatial Reach and Human Impacts of Critical Zone Science Earths Future (IF 8.852) Pub Date : 2024-03-09 Kamini Singha, Pamela L. Sullivan, Sharon A. Billings, Leon Walls, Li Li, Karla M. Jarecke, Holly R. Barnard, Nicole M. Gasparini, Risa D. Madoff, Saroj Dhital, Candace Jones, Eric C. Kastelic, Lin Ma, Paula Perilla-Castillo, Boyoung Song, Tieyuan Zhu
Two major barriers hinder the holistic understanding of subsurface critical zone (CZ) evolution and its impacts: (a) an inability to measure, define, and share information and (b) a societal structure that inhibits inclusivity and creativity. In contrast to the aboveground portion of the CZ, which is visible and measurable, the bottom boundary is difficult to access and quantify. In the context of
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Uncovering Current and Future Variations of Irrigation Water Use Across China Using Machine Learning Earths Future (IF 8.852) Pub Date : 2024-03-09 Kai Liu, Yong Bo, Xueke Li, Shudong Wang, Guangsheng Zhou
Accurately characterizing changes in irrigation water use (IWU) is crucial for formulating optimal water resource allocation policies, particularly in the context of climate change. However, existing IWU estimation methods suffer from uncertainties due to limited data availability and model constraints, restricting their applicability on a national scale and under future climate change scenarios. We
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Understanding the Impact of Precipitation Bias-Correction and Statistical Downscaling Methods on Projected Changes in Flood Extremes Earths Future (IF 8.852) Pub Date : 2024-03-06 Alexander T. Michalek, Gabriele Villarini, Taereem Kim
This study evaluates five bias correction and statistical downscaling (BCSD) techniques for daily precipitation and examines their impacts on the projected changes in flood extremes (i.e., 1%, 0.5%, and 0.2% floods). We use climate model outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) to conduct hydrologic simulations across watersheds in Iowa and determine historical and future
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Do Vegetation Fuel Reduction Treatments Alter Forest Fire Severity and Carbon Stability in California Forests? Earths Future (IF 8.852) Pub Date : 2024-03-05 Kristofer L. Daum, Winslow D. Hansen, Jacob Gellman, Andrew J. Plantinga, Charles Jones, Anna T. Trugman
Forest fire frequency, extent, and severity have rapidly increased in recent decades across the western United States (US) due to climate change and suppression-oriented wildfire management. Fuels reduction treatments are an increasingly popular management tool, as evidenced by California's plan to treat 1 million acres annually by 2050. However, the aggregate efficacy of fuels treatments in dry forests
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A Consumption-Based Integrated Framework for Subnational Absolute Environmental Sustainability Management Earths Future (IF 8.852) Pub Date : 2024-03-04 Fanxin Meng, Danqi Liao, Dongfang Wang, Gengyuan Liu, Sai Liang, Silvio Cristiano, Xiaowen Li, Zhifeng Yang
As human consumption expands, four environmental footprints (EFs) exceed the planetary boundaries (PBs) at the global scale. Managing absolute environmental sustainability (AES) based on PBs and EFs at the subnational level is crucial for policy insights. However, a consumption-based AES management framework still needs to be developed. A framework, including five nexus environmental pressures embodied
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An Empirical Social Vulnerability Map for Flood Risk Assessment at Global Scale (“GlobE-SoVI”) Earths Future (IF 8.852) Pub Date : 2024-03-01 Lena Reimann, Elco Koks, Hans de Moel, Marijn J. Ton, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Fatalities caused by natural hazards are driven not only by population exposure, but also by their vulnerability to these events, determined by intersecting characteristics such as education, age and income. Empirical evidence of the drivers of social vulnerability, however, is limited due to a lack of relevant data, in particular on a global scale. Consequently, existing global-scale risk assessments
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The Role of Anthropogenic Forcings on Historical Sea-Level Change in the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool Region Earths Future (IF 8.852) Pub Date : 2024-02-29 Dhrubajyoti Samanta, Vedant Vairagi, Kristin Richter, Elaine L. McDonagh, Kristopher B. Karnauskas, Nathalie F. Goodkin, Lock Yue Chew, Benjamin P. Horton
Detecting and attributing sea-level rise over different spatiotemporal scales is essential for low-lying and highly populated coastal regions. Using the Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project (DAMIP) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6, we evaluate the role of anthropogenic forcing in sea-level change in the historical (1950–2014) period in the Indo-Pacific warm
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Bridging Quantitative and Qualitative Science for BECCS in Abandoned Croplands Earths Future (IF 8.852) Pub Date : 2024-02-29 Jan Sandstad Næss, Ida Marie Henriksen, Tomas Moe Skjølsvold
Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) plays a vital role in most climate change mitigation scenarios, where a solution for sustainable near-term bioenergy expansion is to grow energy crops such as perennial grasses on recently abandoned cropland. There is a need to combine model-based insights into theoretical potential and future biomass supply with more fine-grained sociotechnical analysis
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Hydroclimatic Vulnerability of Wetlands to Upwind Land Use Changes Earths Future (IF 8.852) Pub Date : 2024-02-28 Simon Felix Fahrländer, Lan Wang-Erlandsson, Agnes Pranindita, Fernando Jaramillo
Despite their importance, wetland ecosystems protected by the Ramsar Convention are under pressure from climate change and human activities. These drivers are altering water availability in these wetlands, changing water levels or surface water extent, in some cases, beyond historical variability. Attribution of the effects of human and climate activities is usually focused on changes within the wetlands
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Temporal Scaling Characteristics of Sub-Daily Precipitation in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau Earths Future (IF 8.852) Pub Date : 2024-02-27 Zhihui Ren, Yan-Fang Sang, Peng Cui, Deliang Chen, Yichi Zhang, Tongliang Gong, Shao Sun, Nedra Mellouli
The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) is highly susceptible to destructive rainstorm hazards and related natural disasters. However, the lack of sub-daily precipitation observations in this region has hindered our understanding of rainstorm-related hazards and their societal impacts. To address this data gap, a new approach is devised to estimate sub-daily precipitation in QTP using daily precipitation data
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The Advancement in Spring Vegetation Phenology in the Northern Hemisphere Will Reverse After 2060 Under Future Moderate Warming Scenarios Earths Future (IF 8.852) Pub Date : 2024-02-28 Yunhua Mo, Shouzhi Chen, Zhaofei Wu, Jing Tang, Yongshuo Fu
Global warming has largely advanced spring vegetation phenology, which has subsequently affected terrestrial carbon and water cycles. However, further shifts in vegetation phenology under future climate change remain unclear. We estimated the start of the growing season (SOS) by applying multiple extraction methods based on the NDVI3g data set, and then parameterized and evaluated 11 spring vegetation
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Heterogeneities in Regional Air Pollutant Emission Mitigation Across China During 2012–2020 Earths Future (IF 8.852) Pub Date : 2024-02-26 Hongyan Zhao, Wenjie He, Jing Cheng, Yang Liu, Yixuan Zheng, Hezhong Tian, Kebin He, Yu Lei, Qiang Zhang
The toughest-ever clean air actions to date in China have helped to reduce national air pollutant emissions significantly in recent years. However, the heterogeneous mitigation paths and their determinated factors among regions were less concerned. To direct regional mitigation strategies more efficiently, we compiled a time-series emission inventory of Chinese 30 provinces for SO2, NOx, primary PM2
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Issue Information Earths Future (IF 8.852) Pub Date : 2024-02-27
No abstract is available for this article.
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Global Vegetation-Temperature Sensitivity and Its Driving Forces in the 21st Century Earths Future (IF 8.852) Pub Date : 2024-02-22 Wang Yuxi, Peng Li, Yue Yuemin, Chen Tiantian
It has been projected that climatic warming will contribute to vegetation productivity variability at the global scale. With a continued warming, to what extent and where the vegetation productivity is most affected by warming has still not been adequately quantified. Herein, based on 11 earth system model outputs, we predict the characteristics of vegetation-temperature sensitivity (Svpt, defined
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Earth Observation to Address Inequities in Post-Flood Recovery Earths Future (IF 8.852) Pub Date : 2024-02-22 H. K. Friedrich, B. Tellman, J. A. Sullivan, A. Saunders, A. A. Zuniga-Teran, L. A. Bakkensen, M. Cawley, M. Dolk, R. A. Emberson, S. A. Forrest, N. Gupta, N. Gyawali, C. A. Hall, A. J. Kettner, J. L. Sanchez Lozano, G. B. Bola
Floods impact communities worldwide, resulting in loss of life, damaged infrastructure and natural assets, and threatened livelihoods. Climate change and urban development in flood-prone areas will continue to worsen flood-related losses, increasing the urgency for effective tools to monitor recovery. Many Earth Observation (EO) applications exist for flood-hazard monitoring and provide insights on
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30 m Resolution Global Maps of Forest Soil Respiration and Its Changes From 2000 to 2020 Earths Future (IF 8.852) Pub Date : 2024-02-22 Zhengyong Zhao, Xiaogang Ding, Guangyu Wang, Yingying Li
The soil respiration (Rs) of forests is a major component of global Rs, yet few studies have focused on it. This study aimed to estimate global forest Rs and its changes at a resolution of 30 m via an artificial neural network (ANN) model. Five input candidates representing forest type, climatic, soil, and geographical information, as well as 1472 satisfactory forest Rs records, were used to build
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Fast Transit of Carbon Inputs in Global Soil Profiles Regardless of Entering Depth Earths Future (IF 8.852) Pub Date : 2024-02-17 Guocheng Wang, Mingming Wang, Liujun Xiao, Carlos A. Sierra, Jinfeng Chang, Zhou Shi, Zhongkui Luo
Climate and land management changes are altering carbon inputs to soil. The consequence of such input changes on long-term soil organic carbon (SOC) balance depends on the transit behavior of carbon inputs. Using observational carbon input and radiocarbon data in global soil profiles, we reveal that on average nearly 25% of new entering carbon leave soil in 1 year irrespective of entering depth, and