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Correction Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (IF 2.204) Pub Date : 2024-03-12
Published in Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (Ahead of Print, 2024)
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Environmental impacts of underground nuclear weapons testing Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (IF 2.204) Pub Date : 2024-03-06 Sulgiye Park, Rodney C. Ewing
Each nuclear weapon test contributes to a global burden of released radioactivity. Between 1945 and 1996, more than 2,000 nuclear tests were conducted, three-quarters of which were underground. Und...
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Nuclear testing in the 21st century—legacy, tensions, and risks Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (IF 2.204) Pub Date : 2024-03-06 François Diaz-Maurin
Published in Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (Vol. 80, No. 2, 2024)
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Preserving the nuclear test ban after Russia revoked its CTBT ratification Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (IF 2.204) Pub Date : 2024-03-06 Pavel Podvig
Russia’s withdrawal of its ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty in 2023 raised concerns about the possible end of the existing moratorium on nuclear explosions. But the morator...
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The logic for US ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (IF 2.204) Pub Date : 2024-03-06 Steven Pifer
The United States has accepted increasingly stringent limits on nuclear testing, culminating in the 1996 Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty. However, the US Senate in 1999 failed to consent to r...
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To do or not to do: Pyongyang’s seventh nuclear test calculations Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (IF 2.204) Pub Date : 2024-03-06 Rachel Minyoung Lee
A nuclear test often is as political as it is technical. The intricacies of domestic and external politics play into Pyongyang’s decisions on nuclear testing, going far beyond the technical aspects...
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The horrors of nuclear weapons testing Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (IF 2.204) Pub Date : 2024-03-06 Walter Pincus
The closer you are to nuclear weapons, the more you are aware of their dangers. People today seem to have forgotten—if they ever knew—what a single nuclear weapon can do. Which, if nothing else, is...
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Russian nuclear weapons, 2024 Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (IF 2.204) Pub Date : 2024-03-06 Hans M. Kristensen, Matt Korda, Eliana Johns, Mackenzie Knight
Russia is in the late stages of a multi-decade long modernization program to replace all of its Soviet-era nuclear-capable systems with newer versions. In this issue of the Nuclear Notebook, we est...
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Interview: California Congressman Ted Lieu on what you, as a citizen, can do about existential threats Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (IF 2.204) Pub Date : 2024-01-15 John Mecklin
Published in Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (Vol. 80, No. 1, 2024)
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Diversification from Russian nuclear fuel requires market-oriented solutions Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (IF 2.204) Pub Date : 2024-01-15 Yanliang Pan
Western countries are eager to reduce their dependence on Russian-origin nuclear fuel but are hindered by capacity constraints in uranium conversion and enrichment. Governments hope to enhance supp...
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Introduction: What you can do to turn back the hands of the Clock Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (IF 2.204) Pub Date : 2024-01-15 Dan Drollette Jr.
Published in Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (Vol. 80, No. 1, 2024)
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Interview with Sneha Revanur, “the Greta Thunberg of AI” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (IF 2.204) Pub Date : 2024-01-15 Dan Drollette Jr.
Published in Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (Vol. 80, No. 1, 2024)
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Bill McKibben explains what individuals can do to win the climate fight. Together Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (IF 2.204) Pub Date : 2024-01-15 Jessica McKenzie
Published in Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (Vol. 80, No. 1, 2024)
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How my Gen Z students learned to start worrying and dismantle the Bomb Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (IF 2.204) Pub Date : 2024-01-15 Frida Berrigan
Young Americans are coming of age immersed in daily news and controversy about rising perils like climate change, and emerging ones like artificial intelligence. Generation Z has produced and embra...
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“The world has already ended”: Britt Wray on living with the horror and trauma of climate crisis Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (IF 2.204) Pub Date : 2024-01-15 Jessica McKenzie
Published in Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (Vol. 80, No. 1, 2024)
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Nuclear-free NYC: How New Yorkers are disarming the legacies of the Manhattan Project Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (IF 2.204) Pub Date : 2024-01-15 Kathleen Sullivan, Matthew Breay Bolton
In 2021, New York City passed some of the most progressive nuclear disarmament legislation of any major city in the United States, supported by local activists from the New York Campaign to Abolish...
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Why a mind-set of stubborn optimism about the climate crisis is needed, now more than ever Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (IF 2.204) Pub Date : 2024-01-15 Christiana Figueres
When it comes to climate change, most people have heard about negative tipping points and how they can reinforce one another to cause an exponential effect. But they may not be aware that there has...
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Redefining the wildfire problem and scaling solutions to meet the challenge Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (IF 2.204) Pub Date : 2023-11-07 Beverly Law, Ralph Bloemers, Nancy Colleton, Mackenzie Allen
As the climate warms, extended drought and heat events in the United States are driving an increase in acres burned and homes lost to wildfire. The most devastating wildfires happen when dry winds ...
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Climate anxiety is not a mental health problem. But we should still treat it as one Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (IF 2.204) Pub Date : 2023-11-07 Anne M. van Valkengoed
Climate anxiety refers to pervasive worry and apprehension about climate change. Scholars have stressed that climate anxiety is a normal and healthy response to climate change that can motivate cli...
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Book excerpt—Catastrophic climate change: Lessons from the dinosaurs Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (IF 2.204) Pub Date : 2023-11-07 Michael E. Mann
Published in Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (Vol. 79, No. 6, 2023)
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Nuclear weapons sharing, 2023 Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (IF 2.204) Pub Date : 2023-11-07 Hans M. Kristensen, Matt Korda, Eliana Johns, Mackenzie Knight
The Nuclear Notebook is researched and written by the staff of the Federation of American Scientists’ Nuclear Information Project: director Hans M. Kristensen, senior research fellow Matt Korda, re...
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Where climate journalism is now: Interview with Emily Atkin, the fire behind the Heated climate newsletter Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (IF 2.204) Pub Date : 2023-11-07 Dan Drollette Jr.
Published in Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (Vol. 79, No. 6, 2023)
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Conditional restraint: Why the India-Pakistan Kargil War is not a case of nuclear deterrence Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (IF 2.204) Pub Date : 2023-11-07 Arzan Tarapore
In the 1999 Kargil War, India defended its territory from a Pakistani incursion but—in a departure from its historical behavior and standing war plans—chose not to expand the war with counter-attac...
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Introduction: Climate change—where are we now? Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (IF 2.204) Pub Date : 2023-11-07 Dan Drollette Jr.
Published in Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (Vol. 79, No. 6, 2023)
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“Like writing the biography of a ghost”—Interview with Jeff Goodell, author of The Heat Will Kill You First Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (IF 2.204) Pub Date : 2023-11-07 Dan Drollette Jr.
Published in Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (Vol. 79, No. 6, 2023)
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Charging ahead: Steven Chu, Nobel Prize-winner and former energy secretary, on today’s battery research—and more Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (IF 2.204) Pub Date : 2023-11-07 Dan Drollette Jr.
Published in Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (Vol. 79, No. 6, 2023)
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Laying the groundwork for long-duration energy storage Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (IF 2.204) Pub Date : 2023-11-07 Jeremy Twitchell
The electric grid was designed to move large amounts of energy through space, but decarbonization goals will require it to also move energy through time—from days and seasons with a surplus of ener...
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If you worry about humanity, you should be more scared of humans than of AI Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (IF 2.204) Pub Date : 2023-09-10 Moran Cerf, Adam Waytz
ABSTRACT Advances in artificial intelligence (AI) have prompted extensive and public concerns about this technology’s capacity to contribute to the spread of misinformation, algorithmic bias, and cybersecurity breaches and to pose, potentially, existential threats to humanity. We suggest that although these threats are both real and important to address, the heightened attention to AI’s harms has distracted
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Introduction: The hype, peril, and promise of artificial intelligence Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (IF 2.204) Pub Date : 2023-09-10 John Mecklin
Published in Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (Vol. 79, No. 5, 2023)
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Interview: Emerging military technology expert Paul Scharre on global power dynamics in the AI age Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (IF 2.204) Pub Date : 2023-09-10 John Mecklin
Published in Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (Vol. 79, No. 5, 2023)
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Popping the chatbot hype balloon Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (IF 2.204) Pub Date : 2023-09-10 Sara Goudarzi
ABSTRACT Since ChatGPT’s release in November 2022, artificial intelligence has come into the spotlight. Inspiring both fascination and fear, chatbots have stirred debates among researchers, developers, and policy makers. The concerns range from concrete and tangible ones—which include replication of existing biases and discrimination at scale, harvesting personal data, and spreading misinformation—to
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Will AI make us crazy? Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (IF 2.204) Pub Date : 2023-09-10 Dawn Stover
ABSTRACT Chatbots and other artificial-intelligence applications that mimic human conversation or writing have rapidly become some of the most popular tech applications of all time. Expert analysis and media coverage of the risks and benefits of AI have paid scant attention to how chatbots might affect public health at a time when depression, suicide, anxiety, and mental illness are epidemic in the
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AI and atoms: How artificial intelligence is revolutionizing nuclear material production Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (IF 2.204) Pub Date : 2023-09-10 Jingjie He, Nikita Degtyarev
ABSTRACT The associability of artificial intelligence (AI) as a dual-use technology for nuclear material production (NMP) within the academic and practitioner communities remains widely neglected, and so a widening opportunity for AI to aid in illicit and covert non-peaceful applications exists. To address this emerging gap, this paper investigates the evolving and applicable uses of AI and finds broad
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Pakistan nuclear weapons, 2023 Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (IF 2.204) Pub Date : 2023-09-10 Hans M. Kristensen, Matt Korda, Eliana Johns
ABSTRACT The Nuclear Notebook is researched and written by the staff of the Federation of American Scientists’ Nuclear Information Project: director Hans M. Kristensen, senior research fellow Matt Korda, and research associate Eliana Johns. The Nuclear Notebook column has been published in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists since 1987. This issue’s column examines Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal, which
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A reality check and a way forward for the global governance of artificial intelligence Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (IF 2.204) Pub Date : 2023-09-10 Rumtin Sepasspour
Global governance of artificial intelligence (AI) must grapple with four monumental challenges. AI is a tough problem to govern given the speed, scale, and uncertainty of its progress. Various aspe...
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Why what happened to Oppenheimer then is relevant now Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (IF 2.204) Pub Date : 2023-07-16 Daniel M. Kammen
ABSTRACT A renewable energy scientist who resigned from his position during the Trump Administration contemplates the similarities—and differences—between his situation and what happened to Oppenheimer in the 1950s during the McCarthy era.
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French nuclear weapons, 2023 Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (IF 2.204) Pub Date : 2023-07-16 Hans M. Kristensen, Matt Korda, Eliana Johns
ABSTRACT The Nuclear Notebook is researched and written by the staff of the Federation of American Scientists’ Nuclear Information Project: director Hans M. Kristensen, senior research associate Matt Korda, and research associate Eliana Johns. The Nuclear Notebook column has been published in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists since 1987. This issue’s column reviews the status of France’s nuclear
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Oppenheimer: The man behind the movie Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (IF 2.204) Pub Date : 2023-07-16 Dan Drollette Jr.
Published in Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (Vol. 79, No. 4, 2023)
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An extended interview with Christopher Nolan, director of Oppenheimer Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (IF 2.204) Pub Date : 2023-07-16 John Mecklin
Published in Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (Vol. 79, No. 4, 2023)
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Oppenheimer—“A very mysterious and delphic character.” Interview with Kai Bird, author of American Prometheus Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (IF 2.204) Pub Date : 2023-07-16 Dan Drollette Jr.
Published in Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (Vol. 79, No. 4, 2023)
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Oppenheimer’s tragedy—and ours Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (IF 2.204) Pub Date : 2023-07-16 Robert Jay Lifton
ABSTRACT In 1954, Robert Oppenheimer was subjected to what was rightly called “an extraordinary American inquisition” under the name of a security hearing. Despite having served his country so devotedly in heading the atomic bomb project at Los Alamos, he was now publicly humiliated, condemned as a security risk, stripped of his security clearance, and forced to step down from his government consultancies
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“He did not speak the ordinary language”: Memories of Oppie from a Manhattan Project physicist Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (IF 2.204) Pub Date : 2023-07-16 Dan Drollette Jr.
Published in Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (Vol. 79, No. 4, 2023)
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Collateral damage: American civilian survivors of the 1945 Trinity test Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (IF 2.204) Pub Date : 2023-07-16 Lesley M. M. Blume
ABSTRACT The Trinity test site was chosen, in part, for its supposed remove from human inhabitation. Yet nearly half-a-million people were living within a 150-mile radius of the explosion, with some as close as 12 miles away. None were warned or evacuated by the US government ahead of time. After the blast went off, fallout snowed down across the landscape for days, contaminating water and food sources
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Nichols presents charges Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (IF 2.204) Pub Date : 2023-07-16 K. D. Nichols
ABSTRACT Following is the text of a letter, dated December 23, 1953, from Major General K. D. Nichols, general manager of the Atomic Energy Commission, to Dr. J. Robert Oppenheimer.
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Oppenheimer Replies Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (IF 2.204) Pub Date : 2023-07-16 J. R. Oppenheimer
ABSTRACT On March 4, Dr. Oppenheimer replied to General Nichols’ letter of December 23, 1953. The complete text is printed below.
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The Oppenheimer case: A study in the abuse of law Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (IF 2.204) Pub Date : 2023-07-16 Harold P. Green
ABSTRACT A former Atomic Energy Commission legal officer’s account of how its top scientific adviser was deposed.
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Bulletin statement on the Energy Department’s Oppenheimer decision Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (IF 2.204) Pub Date : 2023-07-16 Rachel Bronson
ABSTRACT On December 16. 2022, the Department of Energy vacated the 1954 Atomic Energy Commission decision that revoked Dr. J. Robert Oppenheimer’s security clearance. The Bulletin applauds this important decision.
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Introduction: Near-misses, close calls, and early warnings Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (IF 2.204) Pub Date : 2023-05-08 Dan Drollette Jr.
Published in Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (Vol. 79, No. 3, 2023)
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Lessons learned in blood: Why we fail to use near-misses to prevent man-made disasters Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (IF 2.204) Pub Date : 2023-05-08 Catherine H. Tinsley
ABSTRACT Many, if not most, man-made disasters are preceded by near-misses, where something goes awry but lucky circumstances prevent things from going truly and irreparably wrong. Organizations can learn from these near-misses and make changes necessary to prevent future disasters, but often they do not. This can sometimes be the fault of dysfunctional leadership, but there are also more basic psychological
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Interview with Susan Solomon: The healing of the ozone hole, and what else we can learn from atmospheric near-misses Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (IF 2.204) Pub Date : 2023-05-08 Dan Drollette Jr.
ABSTRACT The 1989 Montreal Protocol that banned chlorofluorocarbons is probably the best example of international cooperation to resolve a common problem.
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Interview with Eric Schlosser: Why we can’t trust the government’s figures about nuclear close calls Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (IF 2.204) Pub Date : 2023-05-08 Dan Drollette Jr.
Published in Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (Vol. 79, No. 3, 2023)
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Able Archer: How close of a call was it? Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (IF 2.204) Pub Date : 2023-05-08 Thomas Fraise, Kjølv Egeland
ABSTRACT Able Archer 83, a NATO nuclear exercise conducted in the fall of 1983, has been the subject of considerable debate in recent decades. While some analysts have argued that the superpowers came close to blows due to Soviet fears that the exercise was a ruse meant to disguise a NATO attack, revisionists have maintained that the danger associated with Able Archer 83 has been seriously overstated
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Fukushima: Lessons learned from a devastating “near-miss” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (IF 2.204) Pub Date : 2023-05-08 Yoichi Funabashi, Marina Fujita Dickson
ABSTRACT Before the Fukushima disaster unfolded in 2011, Japanese government and energy company officials were aware of the warning signs and risks of a potential crisis at the reactor site. They failed to use safety mechanisms or update regulations over time to address the vulnerabilities of the power plants. Because interest groups had led the public to believe the power plants were completely safe
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How to deal with an AI near-miss: Look to the skies Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (IF 2.204) Pub Date : 2023-05-08 Kris Shrishak
ABSTRACT AI systems are harming people. Harms such as discrimination and manipulation are reported in the media, which is the primary source of information on AI incidents. Reporting AI near-misses and learning from how a serious incident was prevented would help avoid future incidents. The problem is that ongoing efforts to catalog AI incidents rely on media reports—which does not prevent incidents
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Russian nuclear weapons, 2023 Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (IF 2.204) Pub Date : 2023-05-08 Hans M. Kristensen, Matt Korda, Eliana Reynolds
ABSTRACT The Nuclear Notebook is researched and written by the staff of the Federation of American Scientists’ Nuclear Information Project: Director Hans M. Kristensen, Senior Research Associate and Project Manager Matt Korda, and Research Associate Eliana Reynolds. The Nuclear Notebook column has been published in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists since 1987. This issue’s column examines Russia’s
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Introduction: how to negotiate the China-Taiwan impasse Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (IF 2.204) Pub Date : 2023-03-12 Dan Drollette Jr.
Published in Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (Vol. 79, No. 2, 2023)
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Nerds, ninjas, and neutrons: The story of the Nuclear Emergency Support Team Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (IF 2.204) Pub Date : 2023-03-12 Jay A. Tilden, Dallas Boyd
ABSTRACT Recently declassified material and other information that has never before appeared in the public domain allow the authors to explain some of the workings of the Nuclear Emergency Support Team (NEST)—often one of the first units to respond whenever there is a nuclear incident, whether it involves a nuclear reactor or a nuclear weapon. Long the subject of mystique, NEST is often depicted on
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The war in Ukraine shows the game-changing effect of drones depends on the game Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (IF 2.204) Pub Date : 2023-03-12 Dominika Kunertova
ABSTRACT The Russian invasion of Ukraine has led to the first large-scale, high intensity war where both sides have extensively deployed military and commercial drones. What the conflict has so far highlighted is that the frequently mentioned “game-changing effect” of drones on warfare depends on the game. Based on their category, drones produce distinctive military effects either as an extension of
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Remote monitoring: Verifying geographical arms limits Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (IF 2.204) Pub Date : 2023-01-15 Moritz Kütt, Ulrich Kühn, Dmitry Stefanovich
ABSTRACT Would it be possible to monitor new missile arms limits in Europe in an environment of deep mistrust? We argue that so-called “active tags,” attached to dual-capable missiles, could help states to monitor remotely defined geographical arms limits without having to rely on resource-intensive human inspections. Such a novel approach could build on already existing technologies. We clarify what
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Introduction: Why some renewable technologies will perish in – and others survive – the “Valley of Death” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (IF 2.204) Pub Date : 2023-01-15 Dan Drollette Jr.
Published in Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (Vol. 79, No. 1, 2023)