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The impact of health inequity on regional variation of COVID-19 transmission in England medRxiv. Epidemiol. Pub Date : 2024-04-22 Thomas Rawson, Wes Hinsley, Raphael Sonabend, Elizaveta Semenova, Anne Cori, Neil M Ferguson
Considerable spatial heterogeneity has been observed in COVID-19 transmission across administrative regions of England throughout the pandemic. This study investigates what drives these differences. We constructed a probabilistic case count model for 306 administrative regions of England across 95 weeks, fit using a Bayesian evidence synthesis framework. We include the mechanistic impact of acquired
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Validation of the BOADICEA Model in a Prospective Cohort of BRCA1/2 Pathogenic Variant Carriers medRxiv. Epidemiol. Pub Date : 2024-04-22 Xin Yang, Thea M. Mooij, Goska Leslie, Lorenzo Ficorella, Nadine Andrieu, Karin Kast, Christian F. Singer, Anna Jakubowska, Carla H. van Gils, Yen Tan, Christoph Engel, Muriel A. Adank, Christi J. van Asperen, Margreet G.E.M. Ausems, Pascaline Berthet, EMBRACE collaborators, J. Margriet Collée, Jackie Cook, Jacqueline Eason, K.Y. van Spaendonck-Zwarts, D Gareth Evans, Encarna B. Gomez Garcia, Helen
Background No validation has been conducted for the BOADICEA multifactorial breast cancer risk prediction model specifically in BRCA1/2 pathogenic variant (PV) carriers to date. Here, we evaluated the performance of BOADICEA in predicting five-year breast cancer risks in a prospective cohort of BRCA1/2 PV carriers ascertained through clinical genetic centres.
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PREVALENCE OF HUMAN AND ANIMAL AFRICAN TRYPANOSOMIASIS IN NIGERIA: A SCOPING REVIEW medRxiv. Epidemiol. Pub Date : 2024-04-22 Elizabeth O. Odebunmi, Chukwuemeka Ibeachu, Chinwe U. Chukwudi
Background African trypanosomiasis continues to pose a substantial threat to both human and animal health in sub-Saharan Africa. This study examined the prevalence of African trypanosomiasis within human and animal populations in Nigeria, the trypanosome species involved, the spread of animal reservoirs, and the variability in diagnostic methodologies employed.
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Engagement and factors associated with annual anal human papillomavirus screening among sexual and gender minority individuals medRxiv. Epidemiol. Pub Date : 2024-04-22 Jenna Nitkowski, Timothy J. Ridolfi, Sarah J. Lundeen, Anna R. Giuliano, Elizabeth Chiao, Maria E. Fernandez, Vanessa Schick, Jennifer S. Smith, Paige Bruggink, Bridgett Brzezinski, Alan G. Nyitray
Objectives Annual screening with a provider has been recommended for groups at highest risk for anal cancer. Anal self-sampling could help address screening barriers, yet no studies have examined annual engagement with this method.
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A Cross Sectional Study of Atrial Fibrillation Prevalence and Associated Cardiac Arrhythmias in Stroke Patients: Insights from Commercial Data Archives medRxiv. Epidemiol. Pub Date : 2024-04-22 Kuan-Meng Soo, Te-Sheng Liew, Paul Heath
The link between atrial fibrillation (AF) and stroke has gained attention due to AF’s significant impact on stroke risk. Detecting AF, especially paroxysmal AF, presents challenges, highlighting the necessity for continuous Holter monitoring. In our investigation, we utilized commercial data archives to examine AF prevalence and associated cardiac arrhythmias among stroke patients and controls. We
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Sustained impact of 10-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine on invasive pneumococcal disease in Kenya, 2011-2022 medRxiv. Epidemiol. Pub Date : 2024-04-22 E Wangeci Kagucia, Brian M Nyamwaya, Gerald Ongayo, Mary Kaniu, Samuel Sang, Ruth Lucinde, Angela Karani, Donald Akech, Fredrick Odiwuor, Christine Mataza, Collins Tabu, Neema Mturi, Siti Ndaa, Caroline Mulunda, Timothy Etyang, Nadia Aliyan, Amek Nyaguara, Shirine Voller, Christian Bottomley, Laura Hammitt, Ifedayo Adetifa, J Anthony G Scott
Background There are only a few long-term PCV impact assessments in sub-Saharan Africa, and these have been confined to settings using a 13-valent PCV. A 10-valent PCV was introduced in Kenya in 2011 with catchup vaccination among children aged <5 years in Kilifi. We evaluated the impact of PCV10 introduction in Kilifi through 2022.
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Analysis of Hypertension in Peru: Prevalence, Associated Factors, Knowledge, Management and Control, 2014-2022 medRxiv. Epidemiol. Pub Date : 2024-04-22 Víctor Juan Vera-Ponce, Fiorella E. Zuzunaga-Montoya, Luisa Erika Milagros Vásquez-Romero, Joan A. Loayza-Castro, Cori Raquel Iturregui Paucar, Mario J. Valladares-Garrido, Enrique Vigil-Ventura
Introduction Hypertension (HTN), prehypertension, and High Blood Pressure (HBP) represent a chronic medical condition of growing global concern. Highlighting the importance of Awareness, medication, and Control of HTN is essential. A significant proportion of hypertensive patients are unaware of their condition, hindering proper and early treatment. Among those diagnosed, not all receive or follow
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Border quarantine, vaccination and public health measures to mitigate the impact of COVID-19 importations: a modelling study medRxiv. Epidemiol. Pub Date : 2024-04-22 Michael J Lydeamore, Cameron Zachreson, Eamon Conway, Freya M Shearer, Christopher M Baker, Joshua V Ross, Joel C Miller, James M McCaw, Nicholas Geard, Jodie McVernon, David J Price
We developed a flexible infectious disease model framework that combines a detailed individual-based model of arrival pathways (quarantine model) and an individual-based model of the arrivals environment (community model) to inform border risk assessments. The work was motivated by Australia’s desire to safely increase international arrival volumes, which had been heavily constrained since early 2020
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The potential impact of the spreading of highly transmissible Omicron variant XBB.1.5 and JN.1 on the evolution of SARS-CoV-2 medRxiv. Epidemiol. Pub Date : 2024-04-22 Buqing Yi
In spite of three-year pandemic time caused by Covid-19, the trend and impact of the evolution of SARS-CoV-2 remain unclear. For newly emerging variants, it is still hard to predict how possibly they could impact the pandemic/endemic course. The spreading of highly transmissible variant XBB.1.5 and JN.1 has brought many questions. Could the high transmission ability of such variant lead to a different
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Research Transparency in 59 Disciplines of Clinical Medicine: A Meta-Research Study medRxiv. Epidemiol. Pub Date : 2024-04-22 Ahmad Sofi-Mahmudi, Eero Raittio, Sergio E. Uribe, Sahar Khademioore, Dena Zeraatkar, Lawrence Mbuagbaw, Lex M. Bouter, Karen A. Robinson
Background Transparency in health research is crucial as it allows for the scrutiny and replication of findings, fosters confidence in scientific outcomes, and ultimately contributes to the advancement of knowledge and the betterment of society.
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Prevalence of polymyxin resistant bacterial strains in India: a systematic review and meta-analysis medRxiv. Epidemiol. Pub Date : 2024-04-22 Sambit K. Dwibedy, Indira Padhy, Aditya K. Panda, Saswat S. Mohapatra
Introduction Polymyxins, the cationic lipopeptide antibiotics, are the last line of therapeutics against the MDR Gram-negative bacterial (GNB) pathogens. Unfortunately, the rising cases of polymyxin-resistant strains from across the globe have adversely impacted their utility. While the molecular mechanisms responsible for developing polymyxin resistance (PolR) are largely understood, the prevalence
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A novel food frequency questionnaire for Brazilian adults based on the Nova classification system: development, reproducibility and validation medRxiv. Epidemiol. Pub Date : 2024-04-20 Evelyn Oliveira da Silva Frade, Kamila Tiemann Gabe, Caroline dos Santos Costa, Daniela Neri, Euridice Martinez Steele, Fernanda Rauber, Josiane Steluti, Renata Bertazzi Levy, Maria Laura da Costa Louzada
The Nova system categorizes foods according to processing levels, and dietary intake instruments not developed to assess this criteria may introduce bias in epidemiological studies. To address this gap, we developed and validated the Nova Food Frequency Questionnaire (NovaFFQ) for Brazilian adults. The NovaFFQ includes commonly consumed foods and drinks based on 2017-2018 National Food Survey data
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The Canadian Collaborative Project on Genetic Susceptibility to Multiple Sclerosis cohort population structure and disease etiology medRxiv. Epidemiol. Pub Date : 2024-04-22 Alison Pagalilauan, Elif Everest, Suzanna Rachimi, Daniel S Reich, Alex D Waldman, Dessa Sadovnick, Carles Vilariño-Guell, Michael J Lenardo
Background: Previous genetic and epidemiological studies have examined subpopulations from the Canadian Collaborative Project on Genetic Susceptibility to Multiple Sclerosis (CCPGSMS) patient cohort, but an encompassing analysis of the study population has not yet been carried out. Objective: This study examines patterns of multiple sclerosis (MS) prevalence in 13,663 cohort members, including 4,821
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Asymptomatic seroconversion in healthy people against dengue and chikungunya in Kandy district of Sri Lanka medRxiv. Epidemiol. Pub Date : 2024-04-19 L.E.A.D.A. Edirisinghe, T.A.N. Mahakapuge, S.A.M. Kularatne, S.A.M.D.A. Kularatne, R.P.V.J. Rajapakse
Background Both dengue and chikungunya are transmitted by Aedes aegypti and have many similarities in epidemiology and clinical manifestations. These two viruses are known to cause asymptomatic infection, however, studies to assess the seroprevalence in healthy individuals are limited. Our objective is to estimate the asymptomatic seroconversion status of both these infections Sri Lanka where dengue
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The Validity and Reliability of Dichotomized Self-rated Health Under Different Cutpoints medRxiv. Epidemiol. Pub Date : 2024-04-19 Charles Plante, Sharalynn Missiuna, Cordell Neudorf
Self-rated health is a widely used indicator of overall health status. It is most often reported on a Likert scale of three to five values in surveys. To facilitate presentation and interpretation, it is common practice to simplify the variable by dichotomizing it; however, there has been little documented reflection on how this should be done. This paper explores all four possible dichotomizations
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Systematic Review of Knowledge, Attitudes, and Practices of Dairy Farmers and Consumers Towards Bovine Tuberculosis in Low- and Middle-Income Countries medRxiv. Epidemiol. Pub Date : 2024-04-19 Abigail Van Der Zwan, Patricia T. Campbell, Nancy Shi, Nikita De Bortoli, Juan Pablo Villanueva-Cabezas
Background Bovine Tuberculosis (bTB), caused by Mycobacterium bovis, is a neglected zoonotic disease primarily associated with cattle. The incidence of bTB is highest in low-income settings with high cattle density and unpasteurised dairy consumption. Smallholder dairy farming has been steadily growing in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) with limited professional support for adequate bTB surveillance
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Factors Associated with Non-and Incomplete Vaccination Among Children Aged 12-23 Months in Gindhir Rural District, Southeast Ethiopia: A Multinomial Analysis medRxiv. Epidemiol. Pub Date : 2024-04-19 Geremew Tsegaye Mulugeta, Desta Hiko Gemeda, Abraham Lomboro Dimore, Tihitian Yohannes Getu, Adamu Zerihun Gelaw, Adane Woldeab Doyamo
Background Childhood immunization is one of the most successful public health interventions that prevent children’s morbidity and mortality from Vaccine Preventable Diseases (VPDs). Despite this, achieving high vaccination coverage is still one of the pressing public health problems globally, particularly in low-and middle-income countries.
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Evaluating the effectiveness of the HPV vaccination programme in England, using regression discontinuity design medRxiv. Epidemiol. Pub Date : 2024-04-19 Isobel L. Ward, Charlotte R. Bermingham, Kate Soldan, Vahé Nafilyan
In England, the National human papillomavirus (HPV) immunisation programme was introduced in 2008 to prevent cervical cancer. Girls aged 12 to 13 were offered routine vaccination, and those aged 14 to 18 years in 2008 were offered ‘catch-up’ vaccination. Using Census 2011, Hospital Episode Statistics and mortality data for the population of England, we exploit the cut-off in eligibility and apply a
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Changes in life expectancy and life span equality during the COVID-19 epidemic in Japan up to 2022 medRxiv. Epidemiol. Pub Date : 2024-04-19 Yuta Okada, Hiroshi Nishiura
Objectives To evaluate the impact of COVID-19 on life expectancy in Japan through demographic analyses.
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Traumatic life events as predictors for depression in middle-aged men and women: A Finnish twin study medRxiv. Epidemiol. Pub Date : 2024-04-19 Piirtola Maarit, Haravuori Henna, Kiviruusu Olli, Viertiö Satu, Suvisaari Jaana, Marttunen Mauri, Kaprio Jaakko, Korhonen Tellervo
Background We examined the exposure to adulthood traumatic life events (TLEs) and analysed their associations with depression in women and men. Then we examined whether the associations of TLEs are independent of exposure loading and vulnerability including familial confounding.
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Projecting international mpox spread in Asia: ongoing global health risk medRxiv. Epidemiol. Pub Date : 2024-04-19 Toshiaki R. Asakura, Sung-mok Jung, Hiroaki Murayama, Cyrus Ghaznavi, Haruka Sakamoto, Ayaka Teshima, Fuminari Miura, Akira Endo
The global mpox outbreak affected many Asian countries in 2023, following a sustained local transmission in Japan. Given the large population sizes and limited vaccine rollout in Asia, the potential risk of global mpox reemergence arising from Asia is of concern. Using a mathematical model incorporating heterogeneous sexual networks among MSM, calibrated to incidence data in Japan, we projected the
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Gender/Sex Disparities in the COVID-19 Cascade from Testing to Mortality: An Intersectional Analysis of Swiss Surveillance Data medRxiv. Epidemiol. Pub Date : 2024-04-19 Diane Auderset, Michaël Amiguet, Carole Clair, Valérie Pittet, Julien Riou, Joëlle Schwarz, Yolanda Mueller
Objectives This study investigates gender and sex disparities in COVID-19 epidemiology in the Canton of Vaud, Switzerland, focusing on the interplay with socioeconomic position (SEP) and age.
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Symptom propagation in respiratory pathogens of public health concern: a review of the evidence medRxiv. Epidemiol. Pub Date : 2024-04-18 Phoebe Asplin, Rebecca Mancy, Thomas Finnie, Fergus Cumming, Matt J. Keeling, Edward M. Hill
Symptom propagation occurs when the symptom set an individual experiences is correlated with the symptom set of the individual who infected them. Symptom propagation may dramatically affect epidemiological outcomes, potentially causing clusters of severe disease. Conversely, it could result in chains of mild infection, generating widespread immunity with minimal cost to public health.
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A new robust and accurate two-sample Mendelian randomization method with a large number of genetic variants medRxiv. Epidemiol. Pub Date : 2024-04-18 Lei Zhang, Jun-Jie Niu, Xian-Mei He, Xiao Zheng, Qi-Gang Zhao, Xiu-Juan Yu, Li Luo, Hai-Gang Ren, Yu-Fang Pei
Horizontal pleiotropy can significantly confound causal estimates in Mendelian randomization (MR) studies, particularly when numerous instrumental variables (IVs) are employed. In this study we propose a novel statistical method, Mendelian Randomization analysis based on Z-scores (MRZ), to conduct robust and accurate MR analysis in the presence of pleiotropy. MRZ models the IV-outcome association z-score
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The proportion of Alzheimer’s disease attributable to apolipoprotein E medRxiv. Epidemiol. Pub Date : 2024-04-17 Dylan M. Williams, Neil M. Davies, Emma L. Anderson
INTRODUCTION The extent to which genetic variation at the APOE locus explains the burden of late-onset Alzheimer’s disease (AD) is poorly understood. We provide new estimates of the proportions of AD and all-cause dementia attributable to carriage of the ε3 and ε4 APOE alleles.
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The Complexity of Tobacco Smoke-Induced Mutagenesis in Head and Neck Cancer medRxiv. Epidemiol. Pub Date : 2024-04-17 Laura Torrens, Sarah Moody, Ana Carolina de Carvalho, Mariya Kazachkova, Behnoush Abedi-Ardekani, Saamin Cheema, Sergey Senkin, Thomas Cattiaux, Ricardo Cortez Cardoso Penha, Joshua R. Atkins, Valérie Gaborieau, Priscilia Chopard, Christine Carreira, Ammal Abbasi, Erik N. Bergstrom, Raviteja Vangara, Jingwei Wang, Stephen Fitzgerald, Calli Latimer, Marcos Diaz-Gay, David Jones, Jon Teague, Felipe Ribeiro
Tobacco smoke, alone or combined with alcohol, is the predominant cause of head and neck cancer (HNC). Here, we further explore how tobacco exposure contributes to cancer development by mutational signature analysis of 265 whole-genome sequenced HNC from eight countries. Six tobacco-associated mutational signatures were detected, including some not previously reported. Differences in HNC incidence
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Determinants of Healthcare Insurance Coverage among Women of Reproductive Age in Tanzania: A Multilevel Mixed Effect Analysis medRxiv. Epidemiol. Pub Date : 2024-04-17 Sanun Ally Kessy, Jovin R. Tibenderana, Jomo Gimonge, Fabiola V Moshi
Background Health insurance has been one of the fundamental approaches of financing healthcare for sustainable Development goals (SDGs). There is a paucity of evidence on the determinants of healthcare insurance coverage among women of reproductive age in Tanzania, therefore this study aimed at assessing factors associated with access to health care insurance among women of reproductive age in Tanzania
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An assessment of the teacher completed ‘Early Years Foundation Stage Profile’ as a routine measure of child developmental health medRxiv. Epidemiol. Pub Date : 2024-04-16 Kate E. Mooney, Charlie Welch, Gareth Palliser, Rachael W. Cheung, Dea Nielsen, Lucy H. Eddy, Sarah L Blower
The routine measurement of children’s developmental health varies across educational settings and systems. The Early Years Foundation Stage Profile (EYFSP) is a routinely recorded measure of a child’s development completed at the end of their first school year, for all children attending school in England and Wales. Despite widespread use for research and educational purposes, the measurement properties
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Mathematical assessment of wastewater-based epidemiology to predict SARS-CoV-2 cases and hospitalizations in Miami-Dade County medRxiv. Epidemiol. Pub Date : 2024-04-16 Binod Pant, Salman Safdar, Calistus N. Ngonghala, Abba B. Gumel
This study presents a wastewater-based mathematical model for assessing the transmission dynamics of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in Miami-Dade County, Florida. The model, which takes the form of a deterministic system of nonlinear differential equations, monitors the temporal dynamics of the disease, as well as changes in viral RNA concentration in the county’s wastewater system (which consists of three
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Effects of short-term restriction of animal products on blood biomarkers and cardiovascular disease risk medRxiv. Epidemiol. Pub Date : 2024-04-16 Eleni M. Loizidou, Alexandros Simistiras, Petros Barmpounakis, Stavros Glentis, Alexandros Dimopoulos, Maria Anezaki, Ioannis Kontoyiannis, Nikolaos Demiris, Pavlos Rouskas, Nikolaos Scarmeas, Mary Yannakoulia, Konstantinos Rouskas, Antigone S. Dimas
Dietary interventions constitute a means of untapped potential for the prevention and management of diseases including cardiovascular disease (CVD) and inflammatory disorders. The extent to which dietary modification can contribute to disease prevention and treatment however remains unclear. Here, we addressed the effects of a dietary pattern, involving periodic animal product restriction (APR), on
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Comparison of Bayesian approaches for developing prediction models in rare disease: application to the identification of patients with Maturity-Onset Diabetes of the Young medRxiv. Epidemiol. Pub Date : 2024-04-16 Pedro Cardoso, Timothy J. McDonald, Kashyap A. Patel, Ewan R. Pearson, Andrew T. Hattersley, Beverley M. Shields, Trevelyan J. McKinley
Background Clinical prediction models can help identify high-risk patients and facilitate timely interventions. However, developing such models for rare diseases presents challenges due to the scarcity of affected patients for developing and calibrating models. Methods that pool information from multiple sources can help with these challenges.
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KleTy: integrated typing scheme for core genome and plasmids reveals repeated emergence of multi-drug resistant epidemic lineages in Klebsiella worldwide medRxiv. Epidemiol. Pub Date : 2024-04-16 Heng Li, Xiao Liu, Shengkai Li, Jie Rong, Shichang Xie, Yuan Gao, Ling Zhong, Quangui Jiang, Guilai Jiang, Yi Ren, Wanping Sun, Yuzhi Hong, Zhemin Zhou
Background Clinically important lineages in Klebsiella, especially those expressing multi-drug resistance (MDR), pose severe threats to public health worldwide. They arose from the co-evolution of the vertically inherited core genome and horizontal gene transfers by plasmids, which has not been systematically explored.
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The Puerto Rican Infant Metagenomic and Epidemiologic Study of Respiratory Outcomes (PRIMERO): Design and Baseline Characteristics for a Birth Cohort Study of Early-life Viral Respiratory Illnesses and Airway Dysfunction in Puerto Rican Children medRxiv. Epidemiol. Pub Date : 2024-04-16 Jonathan I. Witonsky, Jennifer R. Elhawary, Celeste Eng, Sam S. Oh, Sandra Salazar, Maria G. Contreras, Vivian Medina, Elizabeth A. Secor, Priscilla Zhang, Jamie L. Everman, Ana Fairbanks-Mahnke, Elmar Pruesse, Satria P. Sajuthi, Chih-Hao Chang, Tsunami Rosado Guerrero, Keyshla Canales Fuentes, Natalie Lopez, Chris Angely Montanez-Lopez, Richeliz Alfonso Otero, Raymarie Colon Rivera, Leysha Rodriguez
Epidemiologic studies demonstrate an association between early-life respiratory illnesses (RIs) and the development of childhood asthma. However, it remains uncertain whether these children are predisposed to both conditions or if early-life RIs induce alterations in airway function, immune responses, or other human biology that contribute to the development of asthma. Puerto Rican children experience
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The Impact on Well-Being of Cognitive Bias about Infectious Diseases medRxiv. Epidemiol. Pub Date : 2024-04-16 Radomir Pestow
We investigate the relationship between bias about infectious disease and well-being. First, we empirically establish the existence and the causes of bias, specifically during the COVID-19 pandemic. After that we investigate theoretically the effects of bias on well-being. In order to do this, we present a behavioral-epidemiological differential equation model derived from an agent-based model that
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Physical determinants of daily physical activity in older men and women medRxiv. Epidemiol. Pub Date : 2024-04-15 Laura Karavirta, Timo Aittokoski, Katja Pynnönen, Timo Rantalainen, Kate Westgate, Tomas Gonzales, Lotta Palmberg, Joona Neuvonen, Jukka A. Lipponen, Katri Turunen, Riku Nikander, Erja Portegijs, Taina Rantanen, Søren Brage
Introduction The ability to perform bodily movement varies in ageing men and women. We investigated whether physical fitness may explain sex differences in daily physical activity energy expenditure (PAEE) among older people.
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The asymptomatic proportion of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron-variant infections in households: A systematic review medRxiv. Epidemiol. Pub Date : 2024-04-15 Nancy DJ Shi, Adrian J Marcato, Violeta Spirkoska, Niamh Meagher, Juan-Pablo Villanueva-Cabezas, David J Price
Background Understanding the clinical spectrum of SARS-CoV-2 infection, including the asymptomatic fraction, is important as asymptomatic individuals are still able to infect other individuals and contribute to ongoing transmission. The WHO Unity Household transmission investigation (HHTI) protocol provides a platform for the prospective and systematic collection of high-quality clinical, epidemiological
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Evaluation of a Bayesian hierarchical pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic model for predicting parasitological outcomes in Phase 2 studies of new antimalarial drugs medRxiv. Epidemiol. Pub Date : 2024-04-15 Meg K Tully, Saber Dini, Jennifer A Flegg, James S McCarthy, David J Price, Julie A Simpson
The rise of multidrug resistant malaria requires accelerated development of novel antimalarial drugs. Pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic (PK-PD) models relate blood antimalarial drug concentrations with the parasite-time profile to inform dosing regiments. We performed a simulation study to assess the utility of a Bayesian hierarchical mechanistic PK-PD model for predicting parasite-time profiles for
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Seroprevalence and risk factors of brucellosis in pastoralists and their livestock in South Sudan medRxiv. Epidemiol. Pub Date : 2024-04-15 Emmanuel P. Lita, Erneo B. Ochi, Gerald Misinzo, Henriette van Heerden, Robab Katani, Jacques Godfroid, Coletha Mathew
Background Brucellosis poses serious public health implications and substantial economic losses in pastoral rural settings in South Sudan. In humans, brucellosis is almost always originating from animals. Current literature provides scant data regarding the seroprevalence of brucellosis in South Sudan. This cross-sectional study investigates the seroprevalence of brucellosis among the pastoral community
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Deaths averted by COVID-19 vaccination in select Latin American and Caribbean Countries: a modelling study medRxiv. Epidemiol. Pub Date : 2024-04-14 Alexandra Savinkina, Daniel M. Weinberger, Cristiana M. Toscano, Lucia H. De Oliveira
Background The COVID-19 pandemic has had a significant impact on global health, with millions of lives lost worldwide. Vaccination has emerged as a crucial strategy in mitigating the impact of the disease. This study aims to estimate the number of deaths averted through vaccination in LAC during the first year and a half of vaccination rollout (January 2021 - May 2022).
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Laboratory-confirmed respiratory viral infection triggers for acute myocardial infarction and stroke: systematic review protocol medRxiv. Epidemiol. Pub Date : 2024-04-14 Tu Q Nguyen, Diana Vlasenko, Aishwarya N Shetty, Christopher M Reid, Hazel J Clothier, Jim P Buttery
Background Cardiovascular disease contributes substantially to global mortality and morbidity. Respiratory tract infections, particularly influenza, may trigger an increase in the short-term risk of acute myocardial infarction and stroke. Recent studies have also linked this risk to other respiratory viruses, including respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus
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COVID19 vaccines as boosters or first doses: Simulating scenarios to minimize infections and deaths medRxiv. Epidemiol. Pub Date : 2024-04-12 Omar El Deeb, Joseph El Khoury Edde
Public health authorities face the issue of optimal vaccine distribution during spread of pandemics. In this paper, we study the optimal way to distribute a finite stock of COVID-19 doses between first or second doses for unvaccinated individuals and third doses (booster shots) for fully vaccinated individuals. We introduce a novel compartmental model that accommodates for vaccinated populations. This
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Health-economic burden attributable to novel serotypes in candidate 24- and 31-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccines medRxiv. Epidemiol. Pub Date : 2024-04-12 Laura M King, Joseph A Lewnard
Background Next-generation pneumococcal vaccines currently in clinical trials include 24- and 31-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCV24, PCV31), which aim to prevent upper-respiratory carriage and disease involving the targeted serotypes. We aimed to estimate the comprehensive health-economic burden associated with acute respiratory infections (ARIs) and invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) attributable
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Parametrization of Worldwide Covid-19 data for multiple variants: How is the SAR-Cov2 virus evolving? medRxiv. Epidemiol. Pub Date : 2024-04-12 Dietrich Foerster, Sayali Bhatkar, Gyan Bhanot
We mapped the 2020-2023 daily Covid-19 case data from the World Health Organization (WHO) to the original SIR model of Karmack and McKendrick for multiple pandemic recurrences due to the evolution of the virus to different variants in forty countries worldwide. The aim of the study was to determine how the SIR parameters are changing as the virus evolved into variants. Each peak in cases was analyzed
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Identifying risk factors for Lassa fever infection in Sierra Leone, 2019-2021 medRxiv. Epidemiol. Pub Date : 2024-04-12 Daniel Juma Sama, Najmul Haider, Javier Guitian, Abdinasir Yusuf Osman, Francine Ntoumi, Alimuddin Zumla, Richard Kock, Rashid Ansumana
Background Lassa fever (LF) virus (LASV) is endemic in Sierra Leone and poses a significant public health threat to the region; however, no risk factors for LASV infection have been reported in Sierra Leone. The objective of this study was to identify the risk factors for LASV infection in an endemic community in Sierra Leone.
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ASCVD risk refinement with NT-proBNP for statin allocation among low- and intermediate risk individuals medRxiv. Epidemiol. Pub Date : 2024-04-12 Jelena Pavlović, Maryam Kavousi, M. Kamran Ikram, Daniel Bos, M. Arfan Ikram, Maarten J.G. Leening
Background Statin trials targeting low- to intermediate risk individuals, namely MEGA, JUPITER, and HOPE-3, have demonstrated benefit of statin use for primary prevention of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD), but are poorly reflected in guideline recommendations for primary prevention of ASCVD. N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) may refine ASCVD risk in low-to intermediate
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Development and Internal Validation of Models Predicting the Health Insurance Status of Participants in the German National Cohort medRxiv. Epidemiol. Pub Date : 2024-04-12 Ilona Hrudey, Enno Swart, Hansjörg Baurecht, Heiko Becher, Antje Damms-Machado, Wolfgang Hoffmann, Karl-Heinz Jöckel, Nadja Kartschmit, Verena Katzke, Thomas Keil, Bianca Kollhorst, Michael Leitzmann, Claudia Meinke-Franze, Karin B. Michels, Rafael Mikolajczyk, Tobias Niedermaier, Iris Pigeot, Sabine Schipf, Börge Schmidt, Barbara Walter, Stefan Willich, Robert Wolff, Christoph Stallmann
Background In Germany, all citizens must purchase health insurance, in either statutory (SHI) or private health insurance (PHI). Because of the division into SHI and PHI, person insurance’s status is an important variable for studies in the context of public health research. In the German National Cohort (NAKO), the variable on self-reported health insurance status of the participants has a high proportion
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Dietary nitrate intake and net nitrite-generating capacity of the oral microbiome interact to enhance cardiometabolic health: Results from the Oral Infections Glucose Intolerance and Insulin Resistance Study (ORIGINS) medRxiv. Epidemiol. Pub Date : 2024-04-12 Charlene E. Goh, Bruno Bohn, Jeanine M. Genkinger, Rebecca Molinsky, Sumith Roy, Bruce J. Paster, Ching-Yuan Chen, Melana Yuzefpolskaya, Paolo C. Colombo, Michael Rosenbaum, Rob Knight, Moïse Desvarieux, Panos N. Papapanou, David R. Jacobs, Ryan T. Demmer
Background We investigated the association between dietary nitrate intake and early clinical cardiometabolic risk biomarkers, and explored whether the oral microbiome modifies the association between dietary nitrate intake and cardiometabolic biomarkers.
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Infertility and pregnancy outcomes among adults with primary ciliary dyskinesia medRxiv. Epidemiol. Pub Date : 2024-04-12 Leonie D Schreck, Eva S L Pedersen, Katie Dexter, Michele Manion, Living with PCD study advisory group, Nathalie Massin, Bernard Maitre, Myrofora Goutaki, Claudia E Kuehni
Study question What is the prevalence of infertility and ectopic pregnancies among individuals with primary ciliary dyskinesia (PCD), to what extent do they benefit from medically assisted reproduction (MAR), and how does fertility differ by affected PCD gene?
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Chagas disease: lack of knowledge as a risk factor medRxiv. Epidemiol. Pub Date : 2024-04-12 Nicolás Mario Mas D’Alessandro, Hernán Daniel Blaisten, Cristian José Ferrufino, Julián Matías Fernández Boccazzi
Chagas disease presents not merely as a medical concern but as a multifaceted socio-environmental health issue demanding diverse approaches. In Argentina, an estimated two million individuals are afflicted with Chagas disease, with 600,000 exhibiting clinical manifestations. This study endeavors to gauge the populace’s knowledge levels in Añatuya, situated northeast of Santiago del Estero, and to compare
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Data rectification to account for delays in reporting disease incidence with an application to forecasting COVID-19 cases medRxiv. Epidemiol. Pub Date : 2024-04-12 Yunus A. Abdulhameed, Samuel Roberts, Jacob B. Aguilar, James Kercheville, Juan B. Gutierrez
Effective monitoring of infectious disease incidence remains a major challenge to public health. Difficulties in estimating the trends in disease incidence arise mainly from the time delay between case diagnosis and the reporting of cases to public health databases. However, predictive models usually assume that public data sets faithfully reflect the state of disease transmission. In this paper, we
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Prospective study of Candida auris nucleic-acids in wastewater solids in 190 wastewater treatment plants in the United States suggests widespread occurrence medRxiv. Epidemiol. Pub Date : 2024-04-11 Alessandro Zulli, Elana M. G. Chan, Bridgette Shelden, Dorothea Duong, Xiang-Ru S. Xu, Bradley J. White, Marlene K. Wolfe, Alexandria B. Boehm
Candida auris is an emerging, multidrug-resistant fungal pathogen that poses a significant public health threat in healthcare settings. Despite yearly clinical cases rapidly increasing from 77 to 8,131 in the last decade, surveillance data on its distribution and prevalence remains limited. We implemented a novel assay for C. auris detection on a nationwide scale prospectively from September 2023 to
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Association analysis between an epigenetic alcohol risk score and blood pressure medRxiv. Epidemiol. Pub Date : 2024-04-11 Helena Bui, Amena Keshawarz, Mengyao Wang, Mikyeong Lee, Scott M. Ratliff, Lisha Lin, Kira S. Birditt, Jessica D. Faul, Annette Peters, Christian Gieger, Thomas Delerue, Sharon L. R. Kardia, Wei Zhao, Xiuqing Guo, Jie Yao, Jerome I. Rotter, Yi Li, Xue Liu, Dan Liu, Juliana F. Tavares, Gökhan Pehlivan, Monique M.B. Breteler, Irma Karabegovic, Carolina Ochoa-Rosales, Trudy Voortman, Mohsen Ghanbari,
Background Epigenome-wide association studies have revealed multiple DNA methylation sites (CpGs) associated with alcohol consumption, an important lifestyle risk factor for cardiovascular diseases.
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Vaccination and collective action under social norms medRxiv. Epidemiol. Pub Date : 2024-04-10 Bryce Morsky
Social dynamics are an integral part of the spread of disease affecting contact rates as well as the adoption of pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical interventions. When vaccines provide waning immunity, efficient and timely uptake of boosters is required to maintain protection and flatten the curve of infections. How then do social dynamics affect the timely up-take of vaccines and thereby the course
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Reduced effectiveness of repeat influenza vaccination: distinguishing among within-season waning, recent clinical infection, and subclinical infection medRxiv. Epidemiol. Pub Date : 2024-04-10 Qifang Bi, Barbra A. Dickerman, Huong Q. Nguyen, Emily T. Martin, Manjusha Gaglani, Karen J. Wernli, G.K. Balasubramani, Brendan Flannery, Marc Lipsitch, Sarah Cobey, the US Flu Vaccine Effectiveness Network Investigators
Studies have reported that prior-season influenza vaccination is associated with higher risk of clinical influenza infection among vaccinees. This effect might arise from incomplete consideration of within-season waning and recent infection. Using data from the US Flu Vaccine Effectiveness (VE) Network (2011-2012 to 2018-2019 seasons), we found that repeat vaccinees were vaccinated earlier in a season
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Detection of measles virus genotype D8 in wastewater of Brussels capital region, Belgium, March 2024 medRxiv. Epidemiol. Pub Date : 2024-04-10 Annabel Rector, Mandy Bloemen, Bart Hoorelbeke, Marc Van Ranst, Elke Wollants
Following the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) threat assessment brief regarding increased measles case numbers and outbreaks in Europe, we investigated sewage samples from different wastewater treatment plants in Belgium for the presence of measles virus (MV). Samples taken from Brussels North were found to contain MV, which could be characterized as genotype D8. Twelve measles
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A sociodemographic index identifies non-biological sex-related effects on insomnia in the Hispanic Community Health Study/Study of Latinos medRxiv. Epidemiol. Pub Date : 2024-04-10 Natali Sorajja, Joon Chung, Carmela Alcántara, Sylvia Wassertheil-Smoller, Frank J Penedo, Alberto R Ramos, Krista M Perreira, Martha L Daviglus, Shakira F Suglia, Linda C Gallo, Peter Y Liu, Susan Redline, Carmen R Isasi, Tamar Sofer
Background Sex differences are related to both biological factors and the gendered environment. To untangle sex-related effects on health and disease it is important to model sex-related differences better.
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Inferring Skin-Brain-Skin Connections from Infodemiology Data using Dynamic Bayesian Networks medRxiv. Epidemiol. Pub Date : 2024-04-09 Marco Scutari, Delphine Kerob, Samir Salah
Background The relationship between skin diseases and mental illnesses has been extensively studied using cross-sectional epidemiological data. Typically, such data can only measure association (rather than causation) and include only a subset of the diseases we may be interested in.
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The Burr distribution as a model for the delay between key events in an individual’s infection history medRxiv. Epidemiol. Pub Date : 2024-04-09 Nyall Jamieson, Christiana Charalambous, David M. Schultz, Ian Hall
Understanding the temporal relationship between key events in an individual’s infection history is crucial for disease control. Delay data between events, such as infection and symptom onset times, is doubly censored because the exact time at which these key events occur is generally unknown. Current mathematical models for delay distributions rely solely on heuristic justifications for their applicability
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A systematic review of sample size estimation accuracy on power in malaria cluster randomised trials measuring epidemiological outcomes medRxiv. Epidemiol. Pub Date : 2024-04-09 Joseph Biggs, Joseph D. Challenger, Joel Hellewell, Thomas S. Churcher, Jackie Cook
Introduction Cluster randomised trials (CRTs) are the gold standard for measuring the community-wide impacts of malaria control tools. CRTs rely on well-defined sample size estimations to detect statistically significant effects of trialled interventions; however these are often predicted poorly by investigators. Here, we review the accuracy of predicted parameters used in sample size calculations
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Does Ethnicity Alters the Risk of Stroke in Patients with Modifiable Cardiometabolic Risk Factors? medRxiv. Epidemiol. Pub Date : 2024-04-09 Marc Delord, Mark Ashworth, Abdel Douiri
Background Ethnic inequality in stroke risk was partially explained by history of hypertension, diabetes, and socioeconomic status. We aimed to estimate the impact of ethnicity on stroke risk in patients with hypertension, diabetes or hypercholesterolaemia.